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Measuring and analyzing the effect of foreign debt on the gross domestic product in Morocco for the period 1990-2017 using the ARDL Test

 

The research aims to identify the magnitude of the impact of external debt on the gross domestic product in Morocco, and the importance of research lies in the role that external debt plays in addressing structural imbalances, if it is best disposed of according to well-studied economic plans by specialists in this regard, especially if these debts are directed with Other resources, as it helps pay the costs of these debts (debt servicing) that the external debt also raises the level of gross domestic product, and the research starts from the hypothesis that: There is an effect of foreign debt on the GDP in Morocco, has contributed in one way or another to The exacerbation of the external debt, which affected the macro variables, of the Moroccan economy, and became unable to fulfill the debt maturities and its assets, and attempted to resort to rescheduling its debts according to unfair terms with the aim of reducing the severity of the debt, as statistical and standard tools were used, represented by testing the unit root to determine the dormancy of the time series and by accreditation On the methodology of (Dickie Fuller) expanded method, and to know the equilibrium relationship between the study variables, as the ARDL model was relied upon, the study found a relationship A long-term equilibrium (joint integration) between the study variables (independent and dependent), the statistical value of (F) reached (6.06), which is greater than the smallest value (3.29) and the maximum (4.37) at a significant level (1%). This indicates the existence of a long-term equilibrium relationship (a co-integration relationship) between the study variables in the long term. The time series of variables (Y, X1, X2, X3) is not stable at the level, while the time series of the independent variable (X4) is stable at the level. With a breaker and without a breaker and a time trend at a significant level (1%, 5%), and after taking the first difference of the variables (Y, X1, X2, X3), it stabilized at a significant level (1%, 5%, 10%) with the presence of a breaker and a breaker and a time trend Without a break and a time trendIt is evident from the two tests (CUSUM) and (CUSUM of Squares) that there are stability and consistency in the model for the short term and there is no stability in the long term.

 The most important recommendations are directing foreign debts to productive economic sectors, in a way that leads to creating added value and paying attention to foreign debts, directing them towards important priorities and maintaining the stability of macroeconomic variables, and moving away from debts with high conditionalities that restrict the country's economy and falling into a debt trap

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Publication Date
Sat Apr 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Role of Treasury bills to the most important monetary variables in Iraq for the period 1990 – 2013

The treasury bills one internal government debt instruments in iraq that were used to finance temporary deficits in the government budget, There fore the government resorted to issuing for the purpose of providing liquidity, As well as to invest in productive progects, After that it was financing the budget deficit by the monetary authovity of  the central baalpennek  [the new cash velease] which led to negative effects on the Iraqi econome, Thus we find that the treasury transfers have formed alarge proportion of the gross domestic government debt to finance the deficit ayear ago 2003.                      &nbs

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 30 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Trends of Women's Economic Empowerment in Iraq for the Period 1990-2018

This research aims to study the economic, social, and political reality of Iraqi women by identifying the obstacles and diagnosing their empowerment trends in various fields, assessing the extent of their participation in economic activity, and re-achieving balance between women and men by reducing the gender gap between them and reducing the percentage of female unemployment to the lowest possible level. Is achieved by enhancing confidence in Iraqi women by enacting laws and making decisions that allow them to access resources freely. The researcher used the descriptive and analytical method to deal with information and data related to the research topic over a specific period (1990-2018), using local, Arab, and international re

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 05 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Effect of Public Debt on The Trade Balance in Iraq For The Period (2003-2021)

Despite the significant increase in public spending in Iraq, it was not directed toward the important sectors that have an important role in correcting the productive structure. Rather, most of the public expenditure was going to cover the required imports, or to face shocks, whether security or health, and this caused a continuous decrease in the volume of Iraq's exports of goods and services, as the aim of the study was to review the importance of public debt and its impact on the trade balance, as well as to know the economic policies that can contribute to strengthening the trade balance, as the study proved through the (ARDL) model that there is a direct relationship between the domestic debt and the net trade balance, and an invers

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Publication Date
Fri Aug 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Causal Relationship Between Money Supply , Inflation and Exchange Rate in Iraq for the Period ( 1990-2011)

   The paper aims to measure the impact of monetary policy on price stability , by testing the causal relationship between the money supply,  inflation rate and the exchange rate , In order to prove that the  inflation is a monetary phenomenon in the Iraqi economy , and that the exchange rate is controlled in the money supply , the money supply as an endogenous  variable continued we found by using the standard tests to the existence of a single co-integration  between the money supply and the rate of inflation and the money supply and the parallel exchange rate, This confirms the existence of a long-term relationship between the variables , It also confirmed the results of the vector error correctio

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Publication Date
Fri Apr 29 2016
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
The net effect of the nominal protection coefficients in the production of table eggs and poultry meat in Iraq For the period 1990- 2013.: The net effect of the nominal protection coefficients in the production of table eggs and poultry meat in Iraq For the period 1990- 2013.

The research aims to measure the net nominal protection coefficients for the products table eggs and poultry meat and the extent of its impact on domestic production volume for the period of 1990- 2013 has been the use of mathematical formulas simplified in the calculation of the transaction process with a view to the extent of support and protection offered by the state pricing policy for products Resources Sector Animal in Iraq and reach search Highlights and most important, there are volatile price state policy with regard to eggs and poultry meat, as it ranged net nominal protection coefficients between the larger and less than the right one, which means that values are unstable to support local producers or consumers, and can be The

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Analysis of the relationship between inflation and the tax revenue in Iraq for the period 1990-2010

The Iraqi economy has suffered for a long period of inflation because of the Iraq war and the resolutions and the sanctions that were imposed on Iraq, this phenomenon overshadowed at various aspects of the economy including the tax revenue that the State seeks to optimize the total income for the budget, the research covers the years 1990-2010, these years have been divided according to the country's economic variables.

The research  adopted on econometrics analysis that is based on the information and data available on topics and has been using statistical methods to test functions are formulated.

Research concluded that rates of inflation and GDP impact is limited to direct taxation and indirect in current prices a

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Econometrics analysis of the impact of external shocks on foreign direct investment in Iraq for the period (1995-2016)

The external shocks are one of the phenomena that the Iraqi economy is exposed to over a period of time. It is referred to as changes and events that come from outside the economic system and extends to many economic variables. However, foreign direct investment may be severely affected due to the extreme sensitivity to changes and local and international developments. This type of trauma and its characteristics to help manage and cope with external shocks, and in order to avoid the standard problems experienced by some models of simple linear regression, multi-linear regression models were used with variables Scientific and other dummy variables .

        The study foun

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Measuring and Analysis of Demand Function on Oil derivatives of A Selected countries the Period 1985- 2008

The subject of demand on oil derivative has occupied an important position at present time in the daily life context. The fuel of benzene and gas oil and kerosene is one of basic elements of that concern, and on local , regional and international levels. The oil derivatives have played a leading role in determining the course and nature of development since early 1970 to the present time whether in the productive Arab countries or the importing. The researcher set out from the hypothesis that the increase of the local consumer demand on some of the oil derivatives is because of the internal and external factors accompanied by the inability of the productive capability and local production to confront this increase, and the resort

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Effect of Financial Performance of Jordanian Islamic Banks In the Amman Stock Exchange for the period (1990-2008)

The last four decades have witnessed a number of rapid and successive international changes in terms of future impacts and orientations. International economy has transformed into a competitive small village due to the information technology revolution and the liberation processes and the economic openness that the market witnesses, there became one market and the activists in this international market are not governments only but rather international organizations and huge multinational corporations where each spares no effort to take every opportunity and face challenges within the frame of  removing all impediments and release transactions under the auspices of  these global developments, the idea of creating Islamic

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Building a mathematical model for measuring and analyzing the general equilibrium in the Iraqi economy through the IS-lm-BP model

In order to achieve overall balance in the economy to be achieved in different markets and at one time (market commodity, monetary and labor market and the balance of payments and public budget), did not provide yet a model from which to determine the overall balance in the economy and the difficulty of finding the inter-relationship between all these markets and put them applied in the form of allowing the identification of balance in all markets at once.

One of the best models that have dealt with this subject is a model
(LM-BP-IS), who teaches balance in the commodity market and money market and balance of payments and the importance of this issue This research tries to shed light on the reality

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