In this research, we dealt with the study of the Non-Homogeneous Poisson process, which is one of the most important statistical issues that have a role in scientific development as it is related to accidents that occur in reality, which are modeled according to Poisson’s operations, because the occurrence of this accident is related to time, whether with the change of time or its stability. In our research, this clarifies the Non-Homogeneous hemispheric process and the use of one of these models of processes, which is an exponentiated - Weibull model that contains three parameters (α, β, σ) as a function to estimate the time rate of occurrence of earthquakes in Erbil Governorate, as the governorate is adjacent to two countries that fall within the seismic belt which are Turkey and Iran, which makes it not excluded from the arrival of seismic frequencies to it, where the three parameters of the above model were estimated in two ways which are the maximum likelihood method and the Bayesian method to find the time average of the occurrence of this phenomenon and a mean square error (MSE) was used to find out which methods are best in estimating the model parameters show that the Bayesian method is the best estimation method.
The city of Karbala is one of the most important holy places for visitors and pilgrims from the Islamic faith, especially through the Arabian visit, when crowds of millions gather to commemorate the martyrdom of Imam Hussein. Offering services and medical treatments during this time is very important, especially when the crowds head to their destination (the holy shrine of Imam Hussein (a.s)). In recent years, the Arba'in visit has witnessed an obvious growth in the number of participants. The biggest challenge is the health risks, and the preventive measures for both organizers and visitors. Researchers identified various challenges and factors to facilitating the Arba'in visit. The purpose of this research is to deal with the religious an
... Show MoreThe reduction of vibration properties for composite material (woven roving E-glass fiber plies in thermosetting polyester matrix) is investigated at the prediction time under varied combined temperatures (60 to -15) using three types of boundary conditions like (CFCF, CCCF, and CFCC). The vibration properties are the amplitude, natural frequency, dynamic elastic moduli (young modulus in x, y directions and shear modulus in 1, 2 plane) and damping factor. The natural frequency of a system is a function of its elastic properties, dimensions, and mass. The woven roving glass fiber has been especially engineered for polymer reinforcement; but the unsaturated thermosetting polyester is widely used, offering a good balance of vibration p
... Show MoreThe current research deals with short term forecasting of demand on Blood material, and its' problem represented by increasing of forecast' errors in The National Center for Blood Transfusion because using inappropriate method of forecasting by Centers' management, represented with Naive Model. The importance of research represented by the great affect for forecasts accuracy on operational performance for health care organizations, and necessity of providing blood material with desired quantity and in suitable time. The literatures deal with subject of short term forecasting of demand with using the time series models in order to getting of accuracy results, because depending these models on data of last demand, that is being sta
... Show MoreThe research dealt with the study of the element of time in the cinematic language and the role it plays in creating the aesthetic meanings in the documentary film by means of the various structural constructions with which time is constructed. The research included the introduction and the problem of research, which was represented by the following question: (Did the documentary film adopt the values of time formats in the fiction film or it created for itself special linguistic formulations and models which achieve the aesthetic concept?). It also included the importance of research, the need for it and its goal in addition to clarifying the limits of research.The theoretical framework included three sections the first of which is the
... Show MoreFloods caused by dam failures can cause huge losses of life and property, especially in estuarine areas and valleys. In spite of all the capabilities and great improvements reached by man in the construction of dams and their structures, they will remain helpless before the powerful forces of nature, especially those related to tectonic activation, and the occurrence of earthquakes of different intensities.
The region extending from the Ilisu Dam in Turkey to the Mosul Dam in Iraq was chosen as an area for this study, and the HEC-RAS application was used to simulate the collapse of the Ilisu Dam due to a major earthquake, to know the magnitude of the risks and losses that could result
In this paper, a modified derivation has been introduced to analyze the construction of C-space. The profit from using C-space is to make the process of path planning more safety and easer. After getting the C-space construction and map for two-link planar robot arm, which include all the possible situations of collision between robot parts and obstacle(s), the A* algorithm, which is usually used to find a heuristic path on Cartesian W-space, has been used to find a heuristic path on C-space map. Several modifications are needed to apply the methodology for a manipulator with degrees of freedom more than two. The results of C-space map, which are derived by the modified analysis, prove the accuracy of the overall C-space mapping and cons
... Show MoreIn the reverse engineering approach, a massive amount of point data is gathered together during data acquisition and this leads to larger file sizes and longer information data handling time. In addition, fitting of surfaces of these data point is time-consuming and demands particular skills. In the present work a method for getting the control points of any profile has been presented. Where, many process for an image modification was explained using Solid Work program, and a parametric equation of the profile that proposed has been derived using Bezier technique with the control points that adopted. Finally, the proposed profile was machined using 3-aixs CNC milling machine and a compression in dimensions process has been occurred betwe
... Show MoreThis work, deals with Kumaraswamy distribution. Kumaraswamy (1976, 1978) showed well known probability distribution functions such as the normal, beta and log-normal but in (1980) Kumaraswamy developed a more general probability density function for double bounded random processes, which is known as Kumaraswamy’s distribution. Classical maximum likelihood and Bayes methods estimator are used to estimate the unknown shape parameter (b). Reliability function are obtained using symmetric loss functions by using three types of informative priors two single priors and one double prior. In addition, a comparison is made for the performance of these estimators with respect to the numerical solution which are found using expansion method. The
... Show MoreSemi-parametric models analysis is one of the most interesting subjects in recent studies due to give an efficient model estimation. The problem when the response variable has one of two values either 0 ( no response) or one – with response which is called the logistic regression model.
We compare two methods Bayesian and . Then the results were compared using MSe criteria.
A simulation had been used to study the empirical behavior for the Logistic model , with different sample sizes and variances. The results using represent that the Bayesian method is better than the at small samples sizes.
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