Preferred Language
Articles
/
jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
...Show More Authors

Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

Crossref
View Publication Preview PDF
Quick Preview PDF
Publication Date
Sun Jul 01 2012
Journal Name
Bulletin Of The Iraq Natural History Museum
OCCURANCE OF ADULT MUSCID FLIES ON STICKY TRAPS IN SOME IRAQI PROVINCES
...Show More Authors

Publication Date
Tue Mar 01 2011
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
EVALUATION OF THE TOXICITY OF DIFFERENT NICOTINE SULFATE CONCENTRATIONS IN CONTROLLING NYMPHAL INSTARS AND ADULTS OF CABBAGE APHID BREVICORYNE BRASSICAE (L.)(HOMOPTERA: APHIDIDAE)
...Show More Authors

Publication Date
Sat Jul 01 2023
Journal Name
Biomedicine
Antibacterial action of AgNPs produced from different isolates of Gram positive and Gram-negative bacteria on biofilm of Klebsiella pneumoniae isolated from RTI
...Show More Authors

Introduction and Aim: Klebsiella pneumoniae is a Gram-negative bacterium responsible for a wide range of infections, including respiratory tract infections (RTIs). This research was aimed to study the antibacterial and anti-biofilm effect of AgNPs produced by Gram positive and negative bacteria on RTIs associated with K. pneumoniae.   Materials and Methods: The biofilm formation of K.  pneumoniae was determined by tube method qualitatively from select bacterial species characterized by UV-Visible spectroscopy. The antibacterial susceptibility of the bacteria AgNPs was tested for their antibacterial and antibiofilm activity on a clinical isolate of K. pneumoniae.   Results: K. pneumoniae isolated from RTIs were strong biofilm prod

... Show More
View Publication
Scopus (1)
Scopus Crossref
Publication Date
Thu Jun 25 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
Evaluating the Effects of Different Doses of Vitamin B2 and Single Dose of Vitamin B12 Against Myelosuppression Induced by Cyclophosphamide in Experimental Rats
...Show More Authors

Cyclophosphamide is chemotherapeutic agent that utilized for the treatment of different malignancies; however its’ used associated with numerous adverse effects. Vitamin B2 and vitamin B12 suggested having myeloprotective effect. This work is designed to investigate the myeloprotective effect of both vitamins against cyclophosphamide induced myelosuppression. One hundred adult rats of both sexes were used in this study. The animals were randomly enrolled into ten groups of 10 rats each. Group I: Control group. Group II: Cyclophosphamide-treated. Group III and Group IV Orally-administered vitamin B2 (10, and 40 mg/kg/day), respectively alone for 7 days. Group V:

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Scopus (6)
Crossref (1)
Scopus Crossref
Publication Date
Thu Jun 30 2016
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Adenoidectomy with Myringotomy and Tympanostomy Tube Versus Adenoidectomy with Myringotomy in Treatment of Otitis Media with Effusion in 5-7 Years Old Children
...Show More Authors

Background: Adenoiditis is a common cause of otitis media with effusion (OME) in children & perhaps OME is one of the most common diseases leads to hearing impairment in children with subsequent impairment of speech development & learning difficulties , however, treatment remains controversial. Objectives: To evaluate if there is a significant advantage of tympanostomy tube insertion in association with adenoidectomy over adenoidectomy in association with myringotomy alone in treatment of children with OMEType of the study: This is a prospective study. Patients & methods: The study consisted from 63 children diagnosed as cases of bilateral OME & variable degrees of adenoid hypertrophy. The patients were divided randomly i

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Sat Jun 15 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
The accuracy of cone-beam computed tomography in the evaluation of boney support of teeth among patients with a unilateral cleft of lip and palate among IraqiPopulation
...Show More Authors

Background: To evaluate the bony supports of the teeth adjacent to the area of cleft in patient with unilateral cleft lip and palate and to compare these measurements with the measurements of the same teeth in non-cleft side by using CBCT. Materials and methods: The CBCT scans of 30 patients having cleft lip( unilateral) and palate(unilateral), were analyzed and the measurements of the alveolar bony support for teeth that are adjacent to the cleft area were measured with those teeth located on opposite side (non- clef) side. For each tooth, the measurements will taken for the distance between the( cementoenamel junction) (CEJ) and the bony crest (AC) at the( buccal area) was measured and the thickness of the buccal plate At zero, one, tw

... Show More
View Publication
Scopus (3)
Crossref (3)
Scopus Crossref
Publication Date
Tue Sep 08 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
A Study of Apelin-36 and GST Levels with Their Relationship to Lipid and Other Biochemical Parameters in the Prediction of Heart Diseases in PCOS Women Patients
...Show More Authors

This work studies the role of serum apelin-36 and Glutathione S-transferases (GST) activity in association with the hormonal, metabolic profiles and their link to the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in healthy and patients' ladies with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS). A total of fifty-four (PCOS) patients and thirty-one healthy woman as a control have been studied. The PCOS patients were subdivided on the basis of body-mass-index (BMI), into 2-subgroups (the first group was obese-PCOS with BMI ≥ 30 and the second group was non-obese PCOS MBI<30). Fasting-insulin-levels and Lipid-profile, Homeostatic-model assessment-of-insulin-resistance (HOMA-IR), follicle-stimulating-hormone (FSH), luteinizing-hormone (LH), testosterone and

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Scopus (9)
Crossref (2)
Scopus Clarivate Crossref
Publication Date
Wed Nov 07 2018
Journal Name
Asian Journal Of Pharmaceutical And Clinical Research
HYDROGEN PEROXIDE LEVELS CORRELATE WITH SUPEROXIDE DISMUTASE IN IRAQI WOMEN WITH PREGNANCY-INDUCED HYPERTENSION
...Show More Authors

Objective: Pregnancy-induced hypertension (PIH) is a major pregnancy complication that leads to maternal mortality. Here, we have scrutinized the correlation between serum levels of hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) and superoxide dismutase (SOD) in PIH.Methods: Serum samples were collected from 80 Iraqi women (40 women with PIH as patients group, 20 normotensive pregnant women as a positive control, and 20 normotensive non-pregnant women as a negative control) all groups were diagnosed clinically.Results: Serum of H2O2 and SOD levels was measured for all studied groups. Results showed that there were no significant variances in age and gestational age distribution between all studied groups. Furthermore, result showed that the serum level o

... Show More
View Publication
Scopus Crossref
Publication Date
Sat Apr 15 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Detection of Adenovirus antigen and its correlation with clinical signs among children with gastroenteritis
...Show More Authors

A total of 90 stool sample was collected from patients with gastroenteritis to
detect adenovirus antigen among diarrhea cases. They were tested by general stool
examination (GSE), rapid immunochromatographic test and Enzyme Linked
Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA). GSE showed that adenovirus gastroenteritis
infection resulted in non-bloody diarrhea, the existence of RBCs in 7% and Pus in
37% of the samples, Entamoeba histolytica trophozoite and cyst were seen in 3%
and 2% of the samples respectively. The rapid test showed that 21% of samples
were positive for rotavirus, 8% for adenovirus and 3% for astrovirus. Meanwhile,
the ELISA test showed that adenovirus was positive in 9% of the samples. These
findings establish

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Thu Jan 01 2009
Journal Name
Arab Journal Of Gasteroenterology
Serum HCV-RNA levels in patients with chronic hepatitis C: correlation with histological features.
...Show More Authors