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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 01 2012
Journal Name
2012 Ieee International Conference On Circuits And Systems (iccas)
A survey of on-chip monitors
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Systems on Chips (SoCs) architecture complexity is result of integrating a large numbers of cores in a single chip. The approaches should address the systems particular challenges such as reliability, performance, and power constraints. Monitoring became a necessary part for testing, debugging and performance evaluations of SoCs at run time, as On-chip monitoring is employed to provide environmental information, such as temperature, voltage, and error data. Real-time system validation is done by exploiting the monitoring to determine the proper operation of a system within the designed parameters. The paper explains the common monitoring operations in SoCs, showing the functionality of thermal, voltage and soft error monitors. The different

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 03 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Al-wakidi as a documentary historian
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This research is about the resources and the way of al-Waqidi in his
researching of al-sira of the Prophet. And what happened in the first of Islam.
This research is about the documents which al-Waqidi had it. Some of it,
which he had visited, was the places, especially the periods which the events had took
place in. He was asking those whom were contemporary to the happenings, from the
sons of al-Sahaba and al-Tabi’een.
Also this research is lightening on the new studies that gave this historian a
good respect during his work, in which he could gave the reality about his authorship.
The research is trying to draw real way of al-Waqidi and what were reported by him,
especially the documents, and what he had s

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 05 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
A trade union movement in Britain
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Labor movement is considered important in Britain because it is an international phenomenon of the feudal system and one of the flowerings of the era of the capitalist machine. At the beginning of the 18th century, the world witnessed a change and progress in many aspects of the industrial fields such as the different means of production .this era is called the industrial revolution which especially appeared in Britain and extended to other areas of the world .it leads to many changes in Europe and participated in different economic, political and cultural and social fields. and it has a very important role in progress and development but its disadvantage is that it is exploited by the capitalists to achieve their special rights .in othe

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 30 2012
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
Surat Al-Qaria: a linguistic study
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Praise be to God, Lord of the worlds, and the best of prayers, and extradition was made to our master Muhammad and his whole family and companions:
And after:
Surat Al-Qariah is from the royal fence, which is in the thirtieth part of the Noble Qur’an. The commentators differed on the number of verses, and the reason for its naming. This surah talked about the conditions of people on the Day of Resurrection, and about how people were removed from their graves, all of which I spoke about in the preamble.
The research is divided into six topics: the first topic dealt with strange terms, while the second topic dealt with the most important audio issues mentioned in the surah, namely (slurring, advertising, substitution, and silenc

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 30 2001
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Gas Holdup in a Bubble Column
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Publication Date
Fri Nov 18 2022
Journal Name
International Journal Of Nanoscience
Plasma Production and Applications: A Review
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Large amounts of plasma, the universe’s fourth most common kind of stuff, may be found across our galaxy and other galaxies. There are four types of matter in the cosmos, and plasma is the most common. By heating the compressed air or inert gases to create negatively and positively charged particles known as ions, electrically neutral particles in their natural state are formed. Many scientists are currently focusing their efforts on the development of artificial plasma and the possible advantages it may have for humankind in the near future. In the literature, there is a scarcity of information regarding plasma applications. It’s the goal of this page to describe particular methods for creating and using plasma, which may be us

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 29 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Exergy Analysis of a Domestic Refrigerator
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An energy and exergy thermodynamic analysis using EES program was done for a domestic refrigerator working with R-134a using vapor compression refrigeration cycle. The analysis deals with the system component, i.e. compressor, condenser, evaporator and the expansion device. The analysis depends on the entropy generation minimization approach to improve the refrigerator performance by exploring the optimum design points. These design points were derived from three different theories governing the entropy generation minimization using exergy analyzing method. These theories were first applied to find the optimum balance between the hot inner condenser area and the cold inner evaporator area of the refrigerator and between

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 25 2024
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
SBOA: A Novel Heuristic Optimization Algorithm
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A new human-based heuristic optimization method, named the Snooker-Based Optimization Algorithm (SBOA), is introduced in this study. The inspiration for this method is drawn from the traits of sales elites—those qualities every salesperson aspires to possess. Typically, salespersons strive to enhance their skills through autonomous learning or by seeking guidance from others. Furthermore, they engage in regular communication with customers to gain approval for their products or services. Building upon this concept, SBOA aims to find the optimal solution within a given search space, traversing all positions to obtain all possible values. To assesses the feasibility and effectiveness of SBOA in comparison to other algorithms, we conducte

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Order Sum Graph of a Group
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The concept of the order sum graph associated with a finite group based on the order of the group and order of group elements is introduced. Some of the properties and characteristics such as size, chromatic number, domination number, diameter, circumference, independence number, clique number, vertex connectivity, spectra, and Laplacian spectra of the order sum graph are determined. Characterizations of the order sum graph to be complete, perfect, etc. are also obtained.

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 29 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Computer, Communication, Control And System Engineering
Combinatorial Testing Approaches: A Systematic Review
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Testing is a vital phase in software development, and having the right amount of test data is an important aspect in speeding up the process. As a result of the integrationist optimization challenge, extensive testing may not always be practicable. There is also a shortage of resources, expenses, and schedules that impede the testing process. One way to explain combinational testing (CT) is as a basic strategy for creating new test cases. CT has been discussed by several scholars while establishing alternative tactics depending on the interactions between parameters. Thus, an investigation into current CT methods was started in order to better understand their capabilities and limitations. In this study, 97 publications were evalua

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