Preferred Language
Articles
/
jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
...Show More Authors

Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

Crossref
View Publication Preview PDF
Quick Preview PDF
Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2024
Journal Name
Bio Web Of Conferences
Forecasting Cryptocurrency Market Trends with Machine Learning and Deep Learning
...Show More Authors

Cryptocurrency became an important participant on the financial market as it attracts large investments and interests. With this vibrant setting, the proposed cryptocurrency price prediction tool stands as a pivotal element providing direction to both enthusiasts and investors in a market that presents itself grounded on numerous complexities of digital currency. Employing feature selection enchantment and dynamic trio of ARIMA, LSTM, Linear Regression techniques the tool creates a mosaic for users to analyze data using artificial intelligence towards forecasts in real-time crypto universe. While users navigate the algorithmic labyrinth, they are offered a vast and glittering selection of high-quality cryptocurrencies to select. The

... Show More
View Publication
Scopus (3)
Scopus Crossref
Publication Date
Sun Jun 30 2013
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
HLA Typing in Iraqi Patients with Obesity and Primary Osteoarthritis.
...Show More Authors

Background: Osteoarthritis (OA) is a degenerative joint disease. It is one of the major causes of disability in developed and developing countries. Human leukocyte antigen (HLA) as part of immune system has a role in the disease process.Objectives: To investigate whether there is an association between HLA class II-DRB and OA.Methods: A case control study with 26 patients with osteoarthritis and 22 apparently healthy obese control persons matching in ethnicity were enrolled in this study during the period between October 2012 till March 2013. Direct interview was done with each patient and HLA typing was done by molecular method using Sequence Specific Primer (PCR-SSP) method using One Lambda Kit-USA. Results: The results showed that fem

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Wed Dec 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
Basmaya Residential Complex compatibility with the Iraqi Green Architecture Code
...Show More Authors

The increase in the Iraqi population put pressure on urban cities as there were no new cities built since the 1980s due to the wars and the economic blockade imposed in 1991 and the deteriorating security situation after 2003, where the population in 2018 reached about forty million people. Iraq also suffered during the past decades from problems and challenges in many respects that affected the local environment, and the constructed buildings had a role in increasing these impacts, so the Ministry of Housing worked to issue the Iraqi Green Architecture Code in 2019 to reduce damage to the environment and use resources more efficiently. And because the constructed buildings were not constructed according to green standards, including Bas

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Sun Jul 01 2018
Journal Name
Current Research In Microbiology And Biotechnology
Detection of anti-Helicobacter pylori in patients with Multiple Sclerosis
...Show More Authors

To determine the relationship between Helicobacter pylori infection and Multiple Sclerosis (MS) disorder, 20 patients with MS aged (25-60) years have been investigated from the period of 2016/12/1 to 2017/3/1 and compared to 15 apparently healthy individuals. All study groups were carried out to measure anti H.pylori IgA and H.pylori IgG antibodies by enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) technique. There was a significant elevation (p<0.05) in the concentration of anti H.pylori IgG and IgA antibodies (Abs) compared to control group, and there was no significant difference (p>0.05) in the concentration of IgA and IgG (Abs) of H.pylori according to gender, and there was no significant difference (p>0.05) in the concentration of IgA and I

... Show More
Publication Date
Sun Mar 30 2003
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Catalytic Reduction of NOx using Locally Prepared Catalysts with Ammonia
...Show More Authors

View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Fri May 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Brackish Water Desalination Coupled With Wastewater Treatment and Electricity Generation
...Show More Authors

A new bio-electrochemical system was proposed for simultaneous removal of organic matters and salinity from actual domestic wastewater and synthetically prepared saline water, respectively. The performance of a three-chambered microbial osmotic fuel cell (MOFC) provided with forward osmosis (FO) membrane and cation exchange membrane (CEM) was evaluated with respect to the chemical oxygen demand (COD) removal from wastewater, electricity generation, and desalination of saline water. The MOFC wasinoculated with activated sludge and fueled with actual domestic wastewater. Results revealed that maximum removal efficiency of COD from wastewater, TDS removal efficiency from saline water, power density, and current density were

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Aeroelastic Flutter of Subsonic Aircraft Wing Section with Control Surface
...Show More Authors

Aeroelastic flutter in aircraft mechanisms is unavoidable, essentially in the wing and control surface. In this work a three degree-of-freedom aeroelastic wing section with trailing edge flap is modeled numerically and theoretically. FLUENT code based on the steady finite volume is used for the prediction of the steady aerodynamic characteristics (lift, drag, pitching moment, velocity, and pressure distribution) as well as the Duhamel formulation is used to model the aerodynamic loads theoretically. The system response (pitch, flap pitch and plunge) was determined by integration the governing equations using MATLAB with a standard Runge–Kutta algorithm in conjunction with Henon’s method. The results are compared with

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Mon Jun 19 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Numerical Simulation of flow in pipe with cross jet effects
...Show More Authors

A numerical method is developed to obtain two-dimensional velocity and pressure distribution through a cylindrical pipe with cross jet flows. The method is based on solving partial differential equations for the conservation of mass and momentum by finite difference method to convert them into algebraic equations. This well-known problem is used to introduce the basic concepts of CFD including: the finite- difference mesh, the discrete nature of the numerical solution, and the dependence of the result on the mesh refinement. Staggered grid implementation of the numerical model is used. The set of algebraic equations is solved simultaneously by “SIMPLE” algorithm to obtain velocity and pressure distribution within a pipe. In order to

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref
Publication Date
Mon Jun 05 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Behavior of Strengthened RC Columns with CFRP under Biaxial Bending
...Show More Authors

In this work, the behavior of reinforced concrete columns under biaxial bending is studied. This work aims at studying the strengthening of columns by using carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP). The experimental work includes investigation of eight reinforced concrete columns (150*150*500mm) tested under several load conditions. Variables considered in the test program include; effect of eccentricity and effect of longitudinal reinforcement (Ø12mm or Ø6mm). Test results are discussed based on load – lateral deflection behavior, load –longitudinal deflection behavior, ultimate load and failure modes. The CFRP reinforcement permits
a complete change in the failure mode of the columns .The effect of longitudinal reinforcement in

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref (1)
Crossref
Publication Date
Mon Aug 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
PHOTO DYNAMIC THERAPY (PDT) WITH BIOLOGICAL TISSUES USING ND:GLASS LASER
...Show More Authors

A Photo Dynamic Therapy (PDT) is a technique which is used with Laser to treat many of cancer
tissues. This paper deals with the relatively new therapeutic technique (PDT) with pulsed Nd:glass Laser
which was applied to human soft tissues (Ovary and Kidney tissues), and to the hard tissues (freshly
extracted human teeth), with power density of 280 watt/mm2 and exposure time 330 usec. Different
dyes (Blue, methylene, eosin, and orange) were applied to the area before irradiation to study the effect
of the pigments on the laser interaction with biological tissues. The zone of treatment (Z-necrosis) with
aid of MATLAB was determined. The relationship of zone of treatment with exposure time,
accumulated damage and fracti

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref