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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
Vestnik Of Lobachevsky University Of Nizhni Novgorod
STRUCTURE OF UTTERANCES WITH THE MEANING OF «CHANGE» IN RUSSIAN
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Publication Date
Thu May 30 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Lipid Profile Parameters and Adipokines among Adolescents Infected with Toxoplasmosis
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The lipid profile and adipokines of an adolescent may be affected by some parasite infections. Recently, it has been discovered that these parasites are connected to body mass index (BMI), lipids and adipokines. The current study, therefore, aimed to specify how Toxoplasma gondii (T. gondii) affect BMI, lipid profile and adipokines. This study was conducted in Al Madain hospital, Baghdad from October to December 2022. An ELISA test was performed to examine the anti-T. gondii IgG and IgM for a group of adolescents attending the hospital. Based on this examination ninety adolescents were chosen to be involved in the study. They were separated in to two groups: individuals who tested positive for the parasite (n=45) and those who teste

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 01 2018
Journal Name
2018 11th International Conference On Developments In Esystems Engineering (dese)
Sustainability Analysis and Shear Capacity of BubbleDeck Slabs with Openings
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Publication Date
Fri Apr 02 2021
Journal Name
New Trends In Information And Communications Technology Applications: 4th International Conference, Ntict 2020, Baghdad, Iraq, June 15, 2020, Proceedings 4
Iris recognition using localized Zernike features with partial iris pattern
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Publication Date
Sat Nov 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Saponification of Diethyl Adipate with Sodium Hydroxide Using Reactive Distillation
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This research presents a new study in reactive distillation by adopting a consecutive reaction . The adopted consecutive reaction was the saponification reaction of diethyl adipate with NaOH solution. The saponification reaction occurs in two steps. The distillation process had the role of withdrawing the intermediate product i.e. monoethyl adipate from the reacting mixture before the second conversion to disodium adipate occurred. It was found that monoethyl adipate appeared successfully in the distillate liquid. The percentage conversion from di-ester to monoester was greatly enhanced (reaching 86%) relative to only 15.3% for the case of reaction without distillation .This means 5 times enhancement . The presence of two layers in both the

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2016
Journal Name
Iraqi J. Sci., Special Issue, Part B
Complex Dynamics in incoherent source with ac-coupled optoelectronic Feedback
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The appearance of Mixed Mode Oscillations (MMOs) and chaotic spiking in a Light Emitting Diode (LED) with optoelectronic feedback theoretically and experimentally have been reported. The transition between periodic and chaotic mixed-mode states has been investigated by varying feedback strength. In incoherent semiconductor chaotically spiking attractors with optoelectronic feedback have been observed to be the result of canard phenomena in three-dimensional phase space (incomplete homoclinic scenarios).

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 01 2021
Journal Name
Key Engineering Materials
Experimental Investigation of Reinforced Concrete Columns with Steel Embedded Tubes
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This study aimed to investigate the influence of longitudinal steel embedded tubes located at the center of the column cross-section on the behavior of reinforced concrete (RC) columns. The experimental program consisted of 8 testing pin-ended square sectional columns of 150×150 mm, having a total height of 1400 mm, subjected to eccentric load. The considered variables were the steel square tube sizes of 25, 51 and 68 mm side dimensions and the load eccentricity (50 and 150) mm. RC columns were concealed steel tubes with hollow ratios of 3%, 12% and 20% depending on tube sizes used. The experimental results indicated an improvement in the overall behavior of eccentric columns when steel embedded tubes are used. The maximum gain in

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 04 2018
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Microalgae Chlorella Vulgaris Harvesting Via Co-Pelletization with Filamentous Fungus
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The objective of this study was to progress another method for coagulation/flocculation of the microalga Chlorella vulgaris via pellet-forming of the fungal species Aspergillus niger which was isolated from municipal wastewater mud and the facultative heterotrophic microalga "C.vulgaris was used. The main factors studies were spore inoculums, organic carbon concentration in medium as well as pH variation which had considerably positive effects on microalgae/fungi co-pelletization formation. The process parameters are an inoculum1×104 spores/ML, 15 g/l sucrose as carbon source and pH ranged from 5 - 7.0 were found optimal for efficient microalgae/fungi co-pelletization formation. For autotrophic growth, when pH of culture broth was adjusted

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Publication Date
Tue May 07 2019
Journal Name
Acm Journal On Emerging Technologies In Computing Systems
Neuromemrisitive Architecture of HTM with On-Device Learning and Neurogenesis
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Hierarchical temporal memory (HTM) is a biomimetic sequence memory algorithm that holds promise for invariant representations of spatial and spatio-temporal inputs. This article presents a comprehensive neuromemristive crossbar architecture for the spatial pooler (SP) and the sparse distributed representation classifier, which are fundamental to the algorithm. There are several unique features in the proposed architecture that tightly link with the HTM algorithm. A memristor that is suitable for emulating the HTM synapses is identified and a new Z-window function is proposed. The architecture exploits the concept of synthetic synapses to enable potential synapses in the HTM. The crossbar for the SP avoids dark spots caused by unutil

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 07 2015
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Association of Aquatic worms and infected snails with Digenean larvae
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Six species of aquatic snails were sorted from three sites, the irrigation canal of Baghdad University campus (S1), River Tigris at Al-Za'afaraniah district / Baghdad(S2) , and River Euphrates at Al-Haideriah district Al-Najaf province(S2). The species included Melanopsis nodosa ;Melanoides tuberculata ; Thaiodaxsas jordani ; Lymnaea auricularia ; Physa acuta and Bellamya bengalensis. The first specis recorded the highest total number and was found in high density in the R. Euphrates site (S3), while the last species was the most widely distributed species, and found in all study sites. The last three species were found in Tigris river (S2) , while the first and last species were collected from the irrigation canal (S1).The result reveal

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