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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Study the reality of vocational education in the province of Basra Applied statistical study for the period 2004/2005 – 2010/2011
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         Vocational education is the basis of contemporary educational movement that aims at satisfying human needs. Societies can develop their human resources via setting programs for the working class as an aspect of the comprehensive national development. Vocational education is the main source of technical cadres the Iraqi labor market requires of the vocational preparatory schools to provide after three years of schooling.

        The vocational schools of the governorate of Basra have a number of problems that lead to the lack of proficiency of their graduates. This study is an attempt to identify these problems or obstacles

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 03 2017
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Keys for Isolation suborders and Families and genera and species of Book and Bark lice in Baghdad and Babylon [Order PSOCOPTERA]
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A taxonomic keys was established of book and bark lice Order Psocoptera to isolated insects in Iraq from different localities of Baghdad and Babylon provinces. Thirteen species belong to eight genera and five families have been studied and described in details, these species were recorded for the first time in Iraq. These species are: Belaphopsocus badonneli New, 1971; Belaphotroctes oculeris Bodonnel, 1973; Embodopsocosis newi Bodonnel, 1973; Epipsocus stigamaticus Mockeord, 1991; Lepinotus huoni Schmidt and New, 2008; Liposcelies decolor Peramane 1925 Liposcelies paeta Pearman 1942 Liposclies bostrychphila Badonnel 1931; Liposclies brunnea Mostchulsky 1852; Liposclies entoophila Enderlein 1907; Neopsocopsis minuscule Li 2002 ;

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Publication Date
Thu Sep 30 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Reflection of the Adoption of IFRS 17 “Insurance Contracts” on the Procedures for Auditing Insurance Contracts in the Iraqi Environment
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          IFRS 17 aims to provide a unified basis for accounting for all types of insurance contracts, including reinsurance contracts, in a manner that benefits both investors and insurance companies and enhances the ability of the financial statements of insurance companies for comparison between companies listed in financial markets around the world. According to this standard, insurance contracts are accounted for on the basis of the Asset-Liability Approach and the use of fair values that the standard requires updating regularly in order to provide more useful information to the users of financial statements, as a result of the failure of reporting requirements for insurance contr

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 30 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Effects of the Rotation on the Mixed Convection Heat Transfer Analysis for the Peristaltic Transport of Viscoplastic Fluid in Asymmetric Channel
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      In this paper, we study the impact of the variable rotation and different variable on mixed convection peristaltic flow of incompressible viscoplastic fluid. This is investigated in two dimensional asymmetric channel, such as the density, viscosity, rate flow, Grashof number, Bingham number, Brinkman number and tapered, on the mixed convection heat transfer analysis for the peristaltic transport of viscoplastic fluid with consideration small Reynolds number and long wavelength, peristaltic transport in asymmetric channel tapered horizontal channel and non-uniform boundary walls to possess different amplitude wave and phases. Perturbation technique is used to get series solutions. The effects of different values of these parame

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 01 2023
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Green Fabrication and Characterization of Zinc Oxide Nanoparticles using Eucalyptus Leaves for Removing Acid Black 210 Dye from an Aqueous Medium
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This study uses an environmentally friendly and low-cost synthesis method to manufacture zinc oxide nanoparticles (ZnO NPs) by using zinc sulfate. Eucalyptus leaf extract is an effective chelating and capping agent for synthesizing ZnO NPs. The structure, morphology, thermal behavior, chemical composition, and optical properties of ZnO nanoparticles were studied utilizing FT-IR, FE-SEM, EDAX, AFM, and Zeta potential analysis. The FE-SEM pictures confirmed that the ZnO NPs with a size range of (22-37) nm were crystalline and spherical. Two methods were used to prepare ZnO NPs. The first method involved calcining the resulting ZnO NPs, while the second method did not. The prepared ZnO NPs were used as adsorbents for removing acid black 210

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 01 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Study the Effect of Graphene on the Contact Angle, Water Absorption and Thermal Stability ( TGA ,DSC) for Blend (Epoxy & Repcoat ZR)
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In this study, polymeric coating was developed by incorporating nano graphene in the polymer blend with applications to oil storage tanks. The oil storage tanks samples were brought from the oil Pipeline Company / Doura refinery in Baghdad. The coating polymer was formed with a blend (epoxy resin and repcoat ZR). The proportion of mixing the mixture was 3:1:1 epoxy resin 21.06 gm: repcoat ZR 10.53 gm: hardener 10.53 gm. The blend/graphene was prepared using in stui-polymerization method with different weight percentage 1, 3, 5, and 7 wt % added to blend. The resulting solution was put in a glass tube on a magnetic stirrer for one hour at a temperature of 40 °C. The result of contact angle and wate

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Publication Date
Mon May 22 2017
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Univariate and Simplex Optimization for the Spectrophotometric Determination of Cimetidine and Erythromycin ethylsuccinate Drugs Using Bromothymol Blue Via Ion-Pair Formation
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    The ion-pair formation method has been applied for the spectrophotometric determination of Cimetidine and Erythromycin ethylsuccinate, in bulk samples and in dosage form. The methods are accurate, simple, rapid, inexpensive and sensitive depending on the extraction of the formed ion-pair with brompthymol blue (BTB) as a chromogenic reagent in chloroform, use phthalate buffer of pH 5.5 and 4.0 for Cimetidine and Erythromycin ethylsuccinate respectively.  The formed complexes show absorbance maxima at 427.5 nm and 414.5 nm for Cimetidine and Erythromycin ethylsuccinate respectively against reagent blank. The calibration graphs are linear in the ranges of 0.5-15 µg.mL-1 with detection limit of 0.222 µg.mL-1 for

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 02 2012
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Determination of optimal conditions for laccase production by Pleurotus ostreatus using sawdust as solid medium and its use in phenol degradation
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The ability of four local fungal isolates for extracellular laccase production has been tested with five grams 1:1(w/v) humidified sawdust as substrate in mineral salt medium. After 21 day of incubation at 25±1 ? C and using one mycelial plug (5mm), higher level of laccase activity (0.15U/ml) and specific activity (15U/mg) were observed by Pleurotus ostreatus in comparison with other fungal isolates. The results of optimum conditions for laccase production from selected isolate showed that, the maximum laccase activity (0.55U/ml) and specific activity (55U/mg) were obtained at moisture ratio 1:3 (w/v), using 3 mycelial plugs (5 mm), after 15 days incubation period at 25±1 ? C. The results of phenol degradation by crud laccase revealed th

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2017
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
Exposure Habits of Female College Students for women's Programs in the Satellite and its Relationship to the Promotion of Family Values
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The status of women in any society is one of the basic criteria for measuring the degree of progress that society and follow renaissance march side by sidewith men , and is no doubt that women are now of interest to the state , even if limited , which promotes public ideologies on the need for womens participation in economic infrastructure operations and social and the right to gain information and knowledge, entertainment and exercise its role in development through its president and actor in the family and raising the next generation configuration.

And affect the basic tributaries that draws them women information and ideas have a direct impact on the composition of cultural and cognitive entity woman comes satellite channels

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 27 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Effectiveness of PDEODE Strategy in Acquiring Historical Concepts in the Subject of History for Students of the Fourth Literary Grade
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The research aims to know (the effect of the pdeode strategy) in acquiring historical concepts among the fourth-grade literary female students in the history module. To achieve the goal of this research, the following null hypothesis was formulated. There is no statistically significant difference at the level of (0.05) between the average scores of the experimental group students, who study history according to the PDEODE strategy, and the average scores of the control group students who study the same module in the traditional way of the historical concepts acquisition test.The researcher chose the experimental method for the current research and adopted the experimental design of partial control with a post-test, which depends on the

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