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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 30 2015
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
Imam al - Karji replies to some Islamic groups In his book the jokes of the Koran
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Imam al - Karji replies to some Islamic groups
In his book the jokes of the Koran

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Publication Date
Mon May 25 2020
Journal Name
International Journal Of Psychosocial Rehabilitation
Strength Training and its Effect in Some Biochemical Variables in the High Jumping of Advanced Players
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The study of biomechanical indicators in the arc of the run and the upgrading stage is one of the important variables that affect the nature of the upgrading and thus affect the result of the race due to the importance of these stages and the consequent variables during the last steps. That’s why, the jump-trainings based on assistant means or body weight positively affect the step-time for each of the three steps in the acceleration arc. As well as, it focuses on the momentary strength of each step at this stage. It also significantly affects the speed of motor performance to suit the activity in which the runner needs to perform perfect steps with high flow in order to convert the horizontal speed to a vertical one. This is achieved thr

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2020
Journal Name
Medico-legal Update
Effect of Some Alcoholic Extracts in Reducing the Fat Content of the Liver Tissue in Rat.
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Objective: This research was carried out in rats in a special place of the laboratory of histopathological diseases in the period 6/9/2018 until 23/11/2018, this study to detect effect of the addition of the alcohol extract of ginger in the reduction of fat in liver tissue of rats. Method: Eight groups and replicates for each group. The groups were homogenous in weights and were placed in 13 cages. Each group consisted of 10 rat and at 5 fares each. In the first treatment, rat were fed on regular feeding without adding and feeding rats in the second treatment sessions add to it the alcoholic extract of ginger in Turkey 150 mg/kg. The third group is the same as the normal food after adding the alcohol extract of ginger at a concentration of

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 01 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
The Toxic Effect of Pb Nanoparticles Prepared by Laser ablation on Some Biochemical Aspects in Rats
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This work aimed to prepare and study the characteristic feature of lead nanoparticles (PbNPS) and follow its effects on some physiological aspects in rats.PbNPS was prepared by laser ablation of pure lead mass with a pulse of 500 and 100 mJ of energy. The results indicated that the wavelength was approximately 196 and the concentration was reported at 53,8967 mg / L. AFM, as the average diameter has been estimated at 69.93 nm. EFSEM shows the spherical shape of the particle.The experimental animals (rats) were divided into two groups, with seven rats for each one. The first group was a control and the second group was injected with 1 milliliter of PbNPS (53.8673 mg/l) per day for 45 days. Bioaccumulated lead ( in liver, spleen kidney and

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Publication Date
Wed Apr 02 2025
Journal Name
Retos
Varied-method training and its effect on developing some functional physical abilities of youth basketball players
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Objective: Preparing training in a diverse style for young basketball players, and identifying the effect of training in a diverse style on some physical abilities (for young basketball players).Research methodology: the researchers chose the experimental method to know the research problem and its objectives, as it is represented by designing two equal groups, the control and the experimental, with pre- and post-tests. The study community was determined by youth basketball players for the 2023-2024 season, as the research community is (104) players, and a sample of (20) players was drawn from the youth category from Al-A'dhamiyah Sports Club, and it was chosen intentionally because they are the clubs most committed to training, as

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The impact of electronic banking transactions to increase the net revenue of the Bank of paypal in United States of America for Period ( 2010-2016 )
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Abstract

   It is clear to everyone how important it is to implement transactions electronically, as it facilitates the provision of services to beneficiaries, whether individuals or institutions, to achieve many benefits that are not exclusive to the beneficiary or the applicant, but extends to the governmental and international bodies. And the number of users has reached millions since its emergence in 1995, because the concepts of electronic transactions have great advantages for the economy in general and the banking sector in particular, so cooperation in various fields with the aim of becoming an information society has become paramount, It allows customers to pay money to any company they want t

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 07 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Developing the Skill of Friendship for Kindergarten Children in the Light of Bandura's Theory Social Learning: Ministry of Education / Baghdad Directorate of Education, Al/Rusafa
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The current research aims to identify the effect of the program to develop the skill of friendship among kindergarten children, as well as the scope of the impact of the program on the sample. To achieve the objectives of the research, the researcher hypothesizes there is no significant difference between the average scores of the sample members on the friendship skill scale for the dimensional scale according to the experimental and control group. The research sample consisted of (60) girl and boy with age ranges (4-6) who were randomly selected from the Kindergarten Unity at Baghdad city/ Rusafa 1. The children were distributed into an experimental and control group, each group consists of (30) girl and boy. The two groups were chosen

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 01 2009
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Evaluation of health and safety management systemAccording to international standards OHSAS 18001: 2007A case study at Al-Mamoun Factory / General Company for vegetable oil industry
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This research aims to knowledge of the scope of applying the international specification of which is regarded to occupational health and safety management system (OHSAS 18001) second edition for year 2007 by The AL-Mammon Factory / The General Company For Vegetable Oils Industry in order to diagnosis the gap between specification requirements and reality by using the checklist made based upon the items of the specification, after translating the English copy into Arabic. The results of the research and analysis that occupational health and safety management system in comparison to the specification requirements in all of its main items, which was (%22.26) applied and documented partly, this refer to the existence of great gap (%7

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Cost technique based on ABCII specifications and its effect in the Implementation of contracting contracts: Applied research in Al-Mansour general company for construction contracting
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The problem of research was to identify after the use of cost technology based on specifications in the validity of determining and measuring the costs of the implementation of contracting, by applying to al-Mansour General Construction Contracting Company as an appropriate alternative to the traditional costing system currently adopted, which is characterized by many shortcomings and weaknesses Which has been reflected in the validity and integrity of the calculations. To solve this problem, the research was based on the premise that: (The application of cost technology based on specifications will result in calculating the cost of the product according to the specification required by the customer, to meet his wishes properly and witho

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 16 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
Determining the Prevalence of Upper and Lower Urinary Tract Infections’ Pathogens and Their Antibiotic Susceptibility Profile for Adult Patients in Al-Diwaniya, Iraq (Conference Paper) #
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Until today, one of the leading predominant infections is Urinary tract infection (UTI). It exerts a huge burden on health systems worldwide each year. Treating UTIs empirically with antimicrobials improves morbidity rates. This study aims to assess the prevalence of UTI-associated bacteria in adult patients and to determine their antibiotic susceptibility profile. A retrospective study was conducted for adult outpatients who visited Al-Diwaniya tertiary hospitals from January 2020 till February 2022 to review their medical and lab records in addition to sociodemographic data. A total of 256 patients’ records were included of which 204 (79.7%) belong to females and 52 (20.3%) were males with an average age of 39.22±17.10 years. The pr

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