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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 01 2022
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
PRESS COVERAGE OF CRISES: (A Research Drawn from a Doctoral Thesis)
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Media is one of the main and effective factors; and it is a tool of crisis management equipment. Media is one of the most dangerous, effective and decisive weapons in modern conflicts; a tool for making events and influencing their events and trends as a means of reporting as the enormous capabilities of media which help media to move very quickly, and cross borders; and overcome obstacles, through many means of audio, reading and visual. As its ability, moreover, to influence the psychological and intellectual control of communities, and behaviors.

Intelligent media is, then, used in crises management and coverage. Crises have been existed with the presence of man on Earth. Thei

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 07 2014
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Exponential Function of a bounded Linear Operator on a Hilbert Space.
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In this paper, we introduce an exponential of an operator defined on a Hilbert space H, and we study its properties and find some of properties of T inherited to exponential operator, so we study the spectrum of exponential operator e^T according to the operator T.

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Publication Date
Fri Nov 24 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
A new analytic method to tune a fractional order PID controller
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This paper proposes a new method to tune a fractional order PID controller. This method utilizes both the analytic and numeric approach to determine the controller parameters. The control design specifications that must be achieved by the control system are gain crossover frequency, phase margin, and peak magnitude at the resonant frequency, where the latter is a new design specification suggested by this paper. These specifications results in three equations in five unknown variables. Assuming that certain relations exist between two variables and discretizing one of them, a performance index can be evaluated and the optimal controller parameters that minimize this performance index are selected. As a case study, a third order linear time

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 21 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering Mathematics
Fluid inflow from a source on the base of a channel
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Publication Date
Mon Aug 01 2022
Journal Name
Communications In Mathematical Biology And Neuroscience
Stability analysis of a competitive ecological system in a polluted environment
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The interplay of species in a polluted environment is one of the most critical aspects of the ecosystem. This paper explores the dynamics of the two-species Lokta–Volterra competition model. According to the type I functional response, one species is affected by environmental pollution. Whilst the other degrades the toxin according to the type II functional response. All equilibrium points of the system are located, with their local and global stability being assessed. A numerical simulation examination is carried out to confirm the theoretical results. These results illustrate that competition and pollution can significantly change the coexistence and extinction of each species.

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 04 2020
Journal Name
Indonesian Journal Of Pharmacy
Design and Synthesis of Novel Derivatives of 4-(6-(4-Substituted Phenyl)-7H-[1,2,4] Triazolo[3,4-b][1,3,4]Thiadiazin-3- yl) Phenol as a Potent Inhibitor of Tubulin with Antitumor Activity
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Publication Date
Mon Jun 30 2014
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Experimental Determination of the Elastic and Viscous Behavior of Polycarbonate Melts at Different Temperatures and Their Relationship to the Steady State Viscosity via the Cox-Merz Rule
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Rheological instrument is one of the basic analytical measurements for diagnosing the properties of polymers fluids to be used in any industry. In this research polycarbonate was chosen because of its importance in many areas and possesses several distinct properties.
Two kinds of rheometers devices were used at different range of temperatures from 220 ˚C-300 ˚C to characterize the rheological technique of melted polycarbonate (Makrolon 2805) by a combination of different investigating techniques. We compared the results of the linear (oscillatory) method with the non-linear (steady-state) method; the former method provided the storage and the loss modulus of melted polycarbonate, and presented the Cox-Merz model as well. One of the

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 06 2010
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Study the effect of Grave's disease on the different tissues and organs of the body by using Wayne Thyrotoxicosis Diagnostic Index(WTDI) and Basel Metabolic Index(BMI)
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The present work aimed to study the effect of Grave's disease on the different tissues and organs of the body by using Wayne Thyrotoxicosis Diagnostic Index (WTDI) and Basel Metabolic Index (BMI). To reach such aim, (35) patients were involved (25 females and 10 males). A control group of (15) healthy individuals (10 females and 5 males) was selected for comparison , as well as , the following: 1- Wayne Thyrotoxicosis Diagnostic Index (WTDI) applied on patient group and control group under the supervision of specialist medical team , this index include (19) sign and symptom , the appearance of one of them may be lead to the others. The sings and symptoms of the index appear only on the patients. There is no Significant di

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The extent of adopting a number of green processing chain management activities in industrial companies An analytical study behind a sample of workers in Kirkuk Cement Factory
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The research is based on the basic idea that companies today are moving towards a new trend towards protecting the environment coupled with the increasing wareness of the pollution damage caused by these companies due to their operations and activities in the environment. The two main reasons that led the researchers to choose this subject is the need to adapt the companies themselves in response to successive developments, The great development was that companies moved from the sole economic responsibility of the business to social responsibility by emphasizing socially responsible profit. The problem of research is the knowledge of the availability of the dimensions of the green processing series in Kirkuk Cement Factory The re

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Publication Date
Thu Apr 07 2016
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
DETECTION OF MICROBIAL CONTAMINATION IN SOME TYPES OF FLOUR THAT AVAILABLE IN LOCAL MARKETS USING BACTRAC DEVICE 3400: DETECTION OF MICROBIAL CONTAMINATION IN SOME TYPES OF FLOUR THAT AVAILABLE IN LOCAL MARKETS USING BACTRAC DEVICE 3400
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A microbial study conducted for a number of flour samples (30 samples) Uses in the bakery ovens in various areas of the city of Baghdad, by used the conventional methods used in laboratories in microbial tests and compared with the modern techniqueby usedof BacTrac Device 3400 equipped from SY-LAB Impedance analysersAustrian company.The results of two ways showed (The conventional way and BacTrac Device test)that the total counts of aerobic bacteria, coliform bacteria, StaphylococcusSpp. bacteria, Bacillus cereus bacteria and yeasts and molds,Most of them were within the permissible borders in the Iraqi standard for grain and its products With free samples from SalmonellaSpp. bacteria, and that the screening by BacTrac device are shorten

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