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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Wed May 19 2010
Journal Name
Journal Of College Of Science, University Of Babylon
H-Point Standard Addition Method for Simultaneous Determination of Cimetidine and Erythromycin Ethylsuccinate Drugs Using Bromothymol Blue as a Chromogenic Complexing Agent
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The H-Point Standard Addition Method (H-PSAM) has been applied for spectrophotometric simultaneous determination of Cimetidine and Erythromycin ethylsuccinate using Bromothymol Blue (BTB) as a chromogenic complexing agent in a buffer solution at pH 5.5.

Publication Date
Wed Sep 01 2021
Journal Name
Review Of International Geographical Education
A New Approach in Determining the Criteria of Equations for Morphometric Characteristics of River Basins - Applied Morphometric Study of The Mamaran Basin
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This study aimed at some of the criteria used to determine the form of the river basins, and exposed the need to modify some of its limitations. In which, the generalization of the elongation and roundness ratio coefficient criterion was modified, which was set in a range between (0-1). This range goes beyond determining the form of the basin, which gives it an elongated or rounded feature, and the ratio has been modified by making it more detailed and accurate in giving the basin a specific form, not only a general characteristic. So, we reached a standard for each of the basins' forms regarding the results of the elongation and circularity ratios. Thus, circular is (1-0.8), and square is (between 0.8-0.6), the blade or oval form is (0.6-0

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Publication Date
Fri May 05 2023
Journal Name
International Journal Of Professional Business Review
The Effect of Emotional Intelligence on Manager Performance: a Field Study in the General Authority for Irrigation and Reclamation Projects in Baghdad
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Purpose: the purpose of this study is to investigate how managers working for the General Authority for Irrigation and Reclamation Projects react to the impact of Emotional Intelligence (EI) on their performance.   Theoretical framework: The current study includes an intellectual framework on two variables, namely EI and Manager Performance (MP), because it is essential to investigate the relationship between these two variables and the impact of EI on MP.   Design/methodology/approach: The research problem is that a manager's capacity to make wise decisions about their work or interactions with subordinates is diminished when they have inadequate EI. The questionnaire is used as a tool for gathering data for the study, and the st

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 28 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The Impact of Adequacy and Authoritative Evidences in the Audit Risks: An Exploratory Research for A Sample Views of Auditors in Iraq
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The Audit evedances represent the reconciliation tools between the Financial data shown on financial statements, and the level of satisfaction level of the Auditor about these statements. According that, the Auditor try to achieve the highest quantity of These evidances, and the most satisfactive of it…, but that will be so hard sometimes, when the internal controlling system is not good, and when the Auditor had some satisfied evidences, but not sharp… So, this research comes to inspect the relation between the quantity, and the level of satisfaction, and argument to prove that evidences gives. This research assumes that getting enough evidences leads to reduce faults, improves the auditing operation, and avoids risks. The research

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 22 2019
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Geometry, and Normal Modes of Vibration (3N-6) for Di and Tetra-Rings Layer (6, 0) Linear (Zigzag) SWCNTs; A DFT Treatment
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            Density Functional Theory (DFT) method of the type (B3LYP) and a Gaussian basis set (6-311G) were applied for calculating the vibration frequencies and absorption intensities for normal coordinates (3N-6) at the equilibrium geometry of the Di and Tetra-rings layer (6, 0) zigzag single wall carbon nanotubes (SWCNTs) by using Gaussian-09 program. Both were found to have the same symmetry of D6d point group with C--C bond alternation in all tube rings (for axial bonds, which are the vertical C--Ca bonds in rings layer and for circumferential bonds C—Cc in the outer and mid rings bonds). Assignments of the modes of vibration IR active and inactive vibration frequ

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 08 2021
Journal Name
مجلة العلوم و التكنولوجية للنشاطات البدنية و الرياضية
The effectiveness of using (7E’s) learning cycle in learning a movement chain on the uneven bars in the artistic gymnastics for women
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Abstract The Object of the study aims to identify the effectiveness of using the 7E’s learning cycle to learn movement chains on uneven bars, for this purpose, we used the method SPSS. On a sample composed (20) students on collage of physical education at the university of Baghdad Chosen as two groups experimental and control group (10) student for each group, and for data collection, we used SPSS After collecting the results and having treated them statistically, we conclude the use 7E’s learning cycle has achieved remarkable positive progress, but it has diverged between to methods, On this basis, the study recommended the necessity of applying 7E’s learning cycle strategy in learning the movement chain on uneven bar

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Employment of critical success factors in achieving the strategy Entrepreneurship: A field research for my company Oil Products Distribution and Midland Refineries
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Abstract

        The critical success factors of the means of the most modern in determining the main directions for organizations to achieve competitive advantage. and can be a critical success factors in organizations that overlap in the functional areas of the organization. that successful organizations use these factors to get to the uniqueness and distinction. as the entrance of critical success factors with the capacity Evaluative phase correction because discovery increases the perception of managers of what is important to the organization and using them to get to the Strategic Entrepreneurship. as it begins in terms of permanence of success and

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 10 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Production of protease, an analyst for the blood clot from a variety of fungal isolates / 1 rating fungal isolates and agricultural circles
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House 21 fungal isolates fungus to the analyst Albroca output of manufactured blood clot from the Blama human blood showed positive fungi to test analyzes blood clot variation in times where decomposition recorded fungi

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Publication Date
Sat Aug 01 2020
Journal Name
Jordan Journal Of Physics
Theoretical Simulation of Backscattering Electron Coefficient for SixGe1-x/Si Heterostructure as a Function of Primary Electron Beam Energy and Ge Concentration
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Abstract: This study aims to investigate the backscattering electron coefficient for SixGe1-x/Si heterostructure sample as a function of primary electron beam energy (0.25-20 keV) and Ge concentration in the alloy. The results obtained have several characteristics that are as follows: the first one is that the intensity of the backscattered signal above the alloy is mainly related to the average atomic number of the SixGe1-x alloy. The second feature is that the backscattering electron coefficient line scan shows a constant value above each layer at low primary electron energies below 5 keV. However, at 5 keV and above, a peak and a dip appeared on the line scan above Si-Ge alloy and Si, respectively, close to the interfacing line

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Publication Date
Fri Oct 17 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Physical Education
The impact of a training field in Lake Al-Razzaza to develop the strength of the legs and arms for young boxers
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