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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Fri Feb 08 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Laser
Bactericidal Effect of CO2 Laser on Bacteria Associated With Dental Implant Infection: An In Vitro Study
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One of the most popular causes for implant infection is dental plaque bacteria. Previous studies have shown the bactericidal effect of CO2 laser irradiation on bacteria associated with soft tissue surrounding the implant materials. No published studies have examined the effect of irradiation by CO2 laser on Streptococcus oralis and Staphylococcus aureus.The aim of this study was to evaluate the bactericidal effect of CO2 laser on bacteria that are causing dental implant infections. This study was carried out on two isolates of bacterial species out of 25 samples, isolated from patients having soft tissue infections around the dental implant. These two pure isolates including Streptococcus oralis and Staphylococcus aureus were identified

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The Impact of Applying the Accounting Islamic Standards on the Cost Efficiency: An applied study in kingdom of Bahrain Islamic banks -Wholesale
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This research highlights the light on the general framework of accounting discloser in the Islamic banks, and show the types and the concepts of Cost Efficiency, In this present study, the sample included Fourteen Islamic banks, where the data was collected from the annual financial reports. Accordingly, the study in order to achieve the aims and access to the results based on the analytical method and the descriptive analysis, and conducted a Simple & Multiple Linear Regression analysis, in order to test hypotheses of the research by using of statistical analysis software (SPSS). The research has arrived to many results such as: the commitment of Islamic banks working in the Kingdome of Bahrain (Wholesale) to the requirements of the

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Publication Date
Sat Apr 02 2022
Journal Name
The International Conference On Science In Engineering And Technology (icosiet) 2020 (virtually)
The Possible Application of Intelligent Systems in Traditional Courtyard House.
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Publication Date
Sun May 01 2022
Journal Name
International Journal Of Multiphase Flow
Application of artificial neural network to predict slug liquid holdup
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Publication Date
Thu Jan 31 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
CFD Application on Shell and Double Concentric Tube Heat Exchanger
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This work is concerned with the design and performance evaluation of a shell and double concentric tubes heat exchanger using Solid Works and ANSY (Computational Fluid Dynamics).

Computational fluid dynamics technique which is a computer-based analysis is used to simulate the heat exchanger involving fluid flow, heat transfer. CFD resolve the entire heat exchanger in discrete elements to find: (1) the temperature gradients, (2) pressure distribution, and (3) velocity vectors.  The RNG k-ε model of turbulence is used to determining the accurate results from CFD.

The heat exchanger design for this work consisted of a shell and eight double concentric tubes. The number of inlets are three and that of o

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Publication Date
Mon Aug 01 2022
Journal Name
International Journal Of Hydrogen Energy
Exploring the application of AlN graphyne in calcium ion batteries
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Destiny functional theory (DFT) calculations are undertaken in order to scrutinize the electrochemical and calcium (Ca) storage characteristics of a graphyne-like aluminum nitride monolayer (G-AlNyen) as an electrode material for Ca-ion batteries (CIBs). The results show that the change in internal energy as well as the cell voltage values for the CIB with the G-AlNyen anode are comparable to others with two-dimensional 2D nano-materials. It is shown that Ca is adsorbed primarily onto the center of a hexagonal and triangular ring of G-AlNyen with absorption energies of −2.06 and −0.42 eV. After increasing the concentration of Ca atoms on G-AlNyen, the adsorption energy as well as the cell voltage decreases. Lower values of 0.15–0.32 e

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 04 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Application of Mathematical Drilling Model on Southern Iraqi Oil Fields
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Publication Date
Tue Mar 01 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Electro spinning of Polycaprolactone / Hydroxyapatite Composites in Wound Dressing Application
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Polycaprolactone polymer is widely used in medical applications due to its biocompatibility. Electro spinning was used to create poly (ε- caprolactone) (PCL) nanocomposite fiber mats containing hydroxyapatite (HA) at concentrations ranging from 0.05 to 0.4% wt. The chemical properties of the fabricated bio composite fibers were evaluated using FTIR and morphologically using field-emission scanning-electron microscopy (FESEM), Porosity, contact angle, as well as mechanical testing(Young Modulus and Tensile strength) of the nanofibers were also studied. The FTIR results showed that all the bonds appeared for the pure PCL fiber and the PCL/HA nano fibers. The FESEM nano fiber showed that the fiber diameter increased from 54.13 to 155.79 (n

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 30 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Application of Data Mining Techniques on Tourist Expenses in Malaysia
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Tourism plays an important role in Malaysia’s economic development as it can boost business opportunity in its surrounding economic. By apply data mining on tourism data for predicting the area of business opportunity is a good choice. Data mining is the process that takes data as input and produces outputs knowledge. Due to the population of travelling in Asia country has increased in these few years. Many entrepreneurs start their owns business but there are some problems such as wrongly invest in the business fields and bad services quality which affected their business income. The objective of this paper is to use data mining technology to meet the business needs and customer needs of tourism enterprises and find the most effective

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Publication Date
Wed Apr 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Construction Engineering And Management
Development and Application of Safety Technology Adoption Decision-Making Tool
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