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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of International Dental And Medical Research
Evaluation of selection criteria for patients indicated for fixed orthodontic appliance treatment
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Publication Date
Sun May 01 2016
Journal Name
Istanbul Bridge Conference.- Turkey
Strengthening and Load Testing for Short Span Steel Bridge for Abnormal Loads
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The steel jetty selected for strengthening is in Baghdad city, over Tigris River, consists of 55 short spans, each of approximately 4 meters and one naviga-tional opening of 12 m. The bridge is 224 meters length and 8 meters in width. The strengthening system was designed to remove overstresses that occurred when the bridge was subjected to abnormal loads of 380 tons. A strengthening system which installed in spring 2008 was used where the main concept is to depend on added side supporting elements which impose reversal forces on the bridge to counteract most of the loads expected from the abnormal heavy loads. The bridge was load tested before and after the strengthening system was activated. The load test results indicate that the strengt

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Production Function Analyze For Almansoor General Company For Engineering Industries In Iraq
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The production function forms one of the techniques used in evaluation the  production the process for any establishment or company, and to explain the importance of contribution of element from the independent variable and it's affect on the dependent variable. Then knowing the elements which are significant or non-significant on the dependent variable.

    So the importance of this study come from estimating the Cobb-Douglas production function for Al- Mansoor General Company for Engineering industries in Iraq during the period (1989-2001)

     To explain the importance which effects the independent variable such as
(N

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 29 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Water Injection for Oil Recovery in Mishrif Formation for Amarah Oil Field
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The water injection of the most important technologies to increase oil production from petroleum reservoirs. In this research, we developed a model for oil tank using the software RUBIS for reservoir simulation. This model was used to make comparison in the production of oil and the reservoir pressure for two case studies where the water was not injected in the first case study but adding new vertical wells while, later, it was injected in the second case study. It represents the results of this work that if the water is not injected, the reservoir model that has been upgraded can produce only 2.9% of the original oil in the tank. This case study also represents a drop in reservoir pressure, which was not enough to support oil production

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 31 2020
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
commiseration for lovers Study in Indication Synthetic Lamentation "Kuthaira Ouza" for instance
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There is no doubt that the achievement of the manuscripts of   There  is no doubt  various of situations for performing  a duty , The diversity of stimuli in humans with sensory, unconscious and instinct sensitive systems. Which leads to a diversity of feelings, sensations, emotions and feelings, This therefore requires different types of function linguistic structures indication , Of that linguistic potential that God willing to be unique, In the function of discharging and venting those feelings and emotions that are raised by its various stimuli, which are only needs and psychological and biological purposes require verification and access and gain it. S

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 15 2023
Journal Name
Al-academy
The shapes of adjacent structures for informing the stage show for children
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This research talked about the importance of adjacent structures for informing the stage show for children. The researcher began from the importance of adjacent structures for informing the show to introduce the various and different proofs, on the level of creativity and artistic shape of the accomplishment over it’s shifts that contribute to formation the show and it's intellectual, artistic, technical and cognitive Marks that contribute in dynamism the interactive show and contact the idea that connect with the design and directional vision for the beauty and cognitive. Lead to the eager operation in attention, sensitive and attractive the child. The research consist of four chapters: The first chapter include methodological framewo

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 15 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
The impact of various staining substances and immersion time on the stainability of bonded sapphire brackets with three kinds of light cure orthodontic adhesives (An in-vitro study)
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Background: The need of the patient for a more reasonable esthetic orthodontic intervention has risen nowadays. Thus, orthodontists make use of esthetic orthodontic materials like brackets, ligature elastics, and arch wires. The esthetic brackets come as different forms of materials, such as ceramic brackets, which have their stainability remaining as the most important consideration for the patients and the orthodontists. This study aimed to compare the staining effects of various staining materials, including black tea, cigarette smoke and Pepsi, as well as the time effect on the color stability of sapphire ceramic brackets bonded with three kinds of light cure orthodontic adhesives: Transbond, Resilience and Enlight. Materials and Met

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The Impact of Applying the Accounting Islamic Standards on the Cost Efficiency: An applied study in kingdom of Bahrain Islamic banks -Wholesale
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This research highlights the light on the general framework of accounting discloser in the Islamic banks, and show the types and the concepts of Cost Efficiency, In this present study, the sample included Fourteen Islamic banks, where the data was collected from the annual financial reports. Accordingly, the study in order to achieve the aims and access to the results based on the analytical method and the descriptive analysis, and conducted a Simple & Multiple Linear Regression analysis, in order to test hypotheses of the research by using of statistical analysis software (SPSS). The research has arrived to many results such as: the commitment of Islamic banks working in the Kingdome of Bahrain (Wholesale) to the requirements of the

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 18 2019
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Spectrophotometric Determination of Mesalazine in Pharmaceutical Preparations by Oxidative Coupling Reactions with m-Aminophenol and 2,6- Dihydroxybenzoic Acid
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     Tow simple, rapid and sensitive spectrophotometric methods for the determination of mesalazine in pharmaceutical preparations have been carried out. The proposed methods depend on oxidative coupling reaction of mesalazine with m-aminophenol in the existence of N-bromosuccinamide in alkaline medium (method A) and 2,6-dihydroxybenzoic acid in the existence of sodium metaperiodate in basic medium (method B) to produce colored products , show highest absorptions at 640 (nm) and 515 (nm), alternately. Beer’s law was consistent in concentrations extent of 1.25-30 and 0.5-12.5 (µg.mL-1) with molar absorptivity of 0.36×104 and 0.77×104 L.mol-1.cm<

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 30 2001
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Construction of Nomograms Describing the Effect of Different Variables on the Behavior of a KCl/Polymer Drilling Fluid
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