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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 12 2009
Journal Name
Department Of Horticulture And Landscape Gardening Design
ESTIMATION OF GENE ACTION AND GENETIC PARAMETERS FOR SOME CHARACTERS OF IN SUMMER SQUASH (Cucrbita pepo L.) BY USING MEAN GENERATION ANALYSIS
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An experiment was carried out in the vegetables field of Horticulture Department / College of Agriculture / Baghdad University , for the three seasons : spring and Autumn of 2005 , and spring of 2007 , to study the type of gene action in some traits of vegetative , flowery growth , yield and its components in summer squash crosses (4 x 3 = cross 1 , 3 x 7 = cross 2 , 3 x 4 = cross 3 , 3 x 5 = cross 4 , 5 x 1= cross 5 , 5 x 2 = cross 6). The study followed generation mean analysis method which included to each cross (P1 , P2 , F1 , F2 , Bc1P1 , Bc1P2) , and those populations obtained by hybridization during the first and second seasons. Experimental comparison was performed in the second (Two crosses only) and third seasons , (four crosses)

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 27 2025
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Synthesis, Characterization and Quantum Mechanical Study of Some New 2-benzylidenehydrazinecarbothioamide Derivatives as Corrosion Inhibitors for Carbon/mild Steel in Acidic Medium.
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In this work, some of new 2-benzylidenehydrazinecarbothioamide derivatives have been prepared by condensation of thiosemicarbazide and different substituted aromatic benzaldehydes in presence of glacial acetic acid to give compounds (1-6), these compounds have characterized by its physical properties and spectroscopic methods. This work also included theoretical study to prove the ability of these compounds as corrosion inhibitors; The program package of Gaussian 09W with its graphical user interface GaussView 5.0 had used for this purpose; the methods of Density Functional Theory (DFT) with basis set of 6-311G (d,p) / hybrid function of B3LYP and semiempirical method of PM3 have been used, the study included theoretical simulation

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 18 2018
Journal Name
Https://www.iasj.net/iasj/article/170012#:~:text=al.qadisiya%20journal%20for%20the%20sciences%20of%20physical%20education
The Effect Of Using Two Strategies For Active Learning ( Jigsaw Strategy & Problems Solving) In Learning Some Balanced Beam's Skills In Artistic Gymnastics
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The aim of this study to identify the effect of using two strategies for active learning ( Jigsaw Strategy & Problems Solving) in learning some balanced beam's skills in artistic gymnastics for women , as well as to identify the best of the three methods (jigsaw strategy , problems solving and the traditional method) in learning some skills balance beam , the research has used the experimental methodology, and the subject included the students of the college of Physical Education and Sports Sciences / University of Baghdad / third grade and by the lot was selected (10) students for each group of groups Search three and The statistical package for social sciences (SPSS) was used means, the standard deviation and the (T.test), the one way a n

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 31 2022
Journal Name
Psychological Science
The health and social repercussions of the epidemic crisis (Covid-19) on women (An exploratory study for some private universities - Baghdad / Karkh)
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The current research aims to first - reveal the social repercussions of COVID-19 on women A - The impact of the epidemiological crisis on the social structure of the family B - Psychological and social pressures that women are exposed to during the Covid pandemic C - Social isolation resulting from the injury of a member Second - Understanding the health consequences of COVID-19 on women A- Mechanisms of differentiation in the treatment of Covid-19 treatment, home or hospital As for the limits of the research, the current research is determined by some private universities of students, female employees and teaching staff in Karkh district, which number eight (Al-Hikma, Al-Farahidi, Al-Farabi, Tigris, AlTurath, Al-Rashid, Al-Mashreq, Al-Nuso

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 27 2025
Journal Name
Journal Mustansiriyah Of Sports Science
The Impact of an Educational Curriculum according to the Five-year Learning Cycle on Some Offensive Skills in Basketball for Female Students
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Modern trends have appeared recently in educational thought that call for the achievement of the outcomes of the educational process. Some of these trends are the development of individual thinking skills, considering the individual differences, and learning basic skills. The five-year learning cycle is one of these models. It is called as five-year learning cycle because it passes through five stages. These five stages are: (operate - discover - clarify - expand – Evaluate), which make the learner as the main axis for activating thinking processes. This can be done by organizing study materials through research, investigation, and identifying concepts by himself, as in learning sports skills that depend on motor performance and teamwork,

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 31 2015
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Esterification of Free Fatty Acid with High Chain Alcohol for Biodiesel Production Using Semi-Batch Reactive Distillation
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The esterification of oleic acid with 2-ethylhexanol in presence of sulfuric acid  as homogeneous catalyst was investigated in this work to produce 2-ethylhexyl oleate (biodiesel) by using semi batch reactive distillation. The effect of reaction temperature (100 to 130°C), 2-ethylhexanol:oleic acid molar ratio (1:1 to 1:3) and catalysts concentration (0.2 to 1wt%) were studied. Higher conversion of 97% was achieved with operating conditions of reaction temperature of 130°C, molar ratio of free fatty acid to alcohol of 1:2 and catalyst concentration of 1wt%. A simulation was adopted from basic principles of the reactive distillation using MATLAB to describe the process. Good agreement was achieved.

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 09 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Numerical Study of Optimum Configuration of Unconventional Airfoil with Steps and Rotating Cylinder for Best Aerodynamics Performance
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Numerical study of separation control on symmetrical airfoil, four digits (NACA

0012) by using rotating cylinder with double steps on its upper surface based on the computation of Reynolds-average Navier- Stokes equations was carried out to find the optimum configuration of unconventional airfoil for best aerodynamics performance. A model based on collocated Finite Volume Method was developed to solve the governing equations on a body-fitted coordinate system. A revised (k-w) model was proposed as a known turbulence model. This model was adapted to simulate the control effects of rotating cylinder. Numerical solutions were performed for flow around unconventional airfoil with cylinder to main stream velocities ratio in the range

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2017
Journal Name
Al-mustansiriyah Journal Of Science
Development of Dispersive Liquid-Liquid Microextraction method combined with UV spectrophotometry for the Determination of Malathion Pesticide
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A simple and novel method was developed by combination of dispersive liquid-liquid microextraction with UV spectrophotometry for the preconcentartion and determination of trace amount of malathion. The presented method is based on using a small volume of ethylenechloride as the extraction solvent was dissolved in ethanol as the dispersive solvent, then the binary solution was rapidly injected by a syringe into the water sample containing malathion. The important parameters, such the type and volume of extraction solvent and disperser solvent, the effect of extraction time and rate, the effect of salt addition and reaction conditions were studied. At the optimum conditions, the calibration graph was linear in the range of 2-100 ng mL-1 of ma

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Publication Date
Wed Apr 07 2010
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Science
Synthesis and Spectral Studies for new Schiff base and its Binuclear Complexes with ZnII,CdII and HgII
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A new ligand (H4L) and its complexes with ( ZnII, CdII and HgII) were prepared. This ligand was prepared in two steps. In the first step a solution of terephthaldehyde in methanol was reacted under reflux with 1,2-phenylenediamine to give an precursor compound which reacted in the second step with 2,4-dihydroxybenzaldehyde to give the ligand. The complexes were then synthesized by direct reaction of the corresponding metal chloride with the ligand. The ligand and complexes were characterized by spectroscopic methods FT-IR, UV-Vis, 1 HNMR, and atomic absorption, chloride content, HPLC, mole-ratio determination. in addition to conductivity measurement. The data of these measurements suggest a distorted tetrahedral geometry for ZnII, C

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 30 2020
Journal Name
Cfd Letters
Numerical Analysis for Solar Panel Subjected with an External Force to Overcome Adhesive Force in Desert Areas
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