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Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application

Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Tue Apr 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Analsis of politic behavior and its impact on displaying the continuousness of organizational trust mantainance ,applied research of a sample of AL-farouq State Construction contracting company Employees

The research aims to know the concept of politic behavior as one of the important behaviours in the different fields and sectors. It is considered to be part of the organizatial work to face the expected  risks. It includes two group of factors personal (self –monitors, locus of control ,expectation s of success, perceived job alternatives)and organizational(promotion ,division resources,role  ambiguity ,democratic decision)studied by the researcher  in the frame of the relationship with the variable  of display  continuous trust matain which includes two variable (build trust mantain, display  trust continuouness)through applied frame by random sample consists of (90)employee  at Farouq State

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 26 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The dimensions of Financial inclusion and its role in achieving competitive advantage: An exploratory research of the views of a sample of clients of the Algerian commercial Banks

The research aims to identify the role of the dimensions of financial inclusion in achieving the competitive advantage by An exploratory research of the views of a sample of customers of the 20 Algerian commercial banks, And the relationship between its dimensions (Access dimension, Usage dimension, Quality) And competitive advantage. This research is based on the analytical descriptive approach. The questionnaire was adopted as a main tool in collecting data and information on the sample of 377.

The The research showed several results, the most important of which is a strong correlation between the dimensions of the three financial inclusion combined and the competitive advantage of the Algerian commercial banks, and explained t

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 28 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Social Safety Nets and Sustainable Development in Fragile Environments: A Field Social Study of Slums in the City of Baghdad/Al-Karkh: هبة صالح مهدي, عدنان ياسين مصطفى

Almost human societies are not void of poverty, as the latter accompanied the emergence of humanity, and it, thus, represents an eternal problem. To advance an individual's reality and raise the level of the poor social classes, social security networks have been established. Such networks operate in society following social systems and laws to provide food, and material support. Besides, such networks help to rehabilitate the individual academically and vocationally. They empower vulnerable groups through the establishment of courses and workshop, provide (conditional) subsidies related to the health and educational aspects in order to achieve the sustainable development goals of (2030), and apply developmental roles of social safety ne

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 29 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The role of the external auditor in assessing the security of information technology systems in light of (ISO/IEC 27001): (Applied research on a sample of private banks)

This research aims to shed light on the necessity of establishing an information security management system through which banking security risks are managed in the light of the ISO (IEC 27001) standard, through which bank departments seek to demonstrate the management of their security systems and their controls in accordance with the specifications of the standard to obtain an internationally recognized security certificate And the need for senior management in banks to an independent person with scientific and practical qualification and who has accredited certificates in the field of information technology for the purpose of helping them to verify the level of compatibility between the policies and procedures applied and the p

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 13 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Using Temperature and Humidity Wireless Sensor and An Arduino Board to Characterise and Verify Climatic and Thermostatic Chambers on A Webpage According to Standard NF X 15-140

Environmental controls, especially for temperature and humidity, are essential to maintain the safety, purity and effectiveness of drugs. The measurement of humidity can be particularly difficult and important in climatic and thermostatic chambers (warehouses, ovens, cold rooms, fridges, drying rooms, insulated boxes, etc.).
The old method of monitoring and qualification of climatic and thermostatic chambers requires placing a defined number of recorders, then programming and store them. After that, to examine the values recorded to revolve the status of the climatic and thermostatic chambers, if they are compliant or not-complaint at any time, so all that goes to waste time and efficiency of values.
We can do the monitoring and qu

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Publication Date
Tue May 24 2022
Journal Name
International Journal Of Interactive Mobile Technologies (ijim)
A Blind Video Copyright Protection Technique in Maximum and Minimum Energy Frames Based on The Fast Walsh Hadamard Transform (FWHT) and Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) and Arnold Map

Video copyright protection is the most generally acknowledged method of preventing data piracy. This paper proposes a blind video copyright protection technique based on the Fast Walsh Hadamard Transform (FWHT), Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT), and Arnold Map. The proposed method chooses only frames with maximum and minimum energy features to host the watermark. It also exploits the advantages of both the fast Walsh Hadamard transform (FWHT) and discrete wavelet transforms (DWT) for watermark embedding. The Arnold map encrypts watermarks before the embedding process and decrypts watermarks after extraction. The results show that the proposed method can achieve a fast embedding time, good transparency, and robustness against various

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 23 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The role of financial derivatives on the risk of foreign currency exchange volatility in enhancing the quality of profits - a method that is prescribed in the Iraqi environment

The objective of this research is to develop a method for applying financial derivatives in the local environment to reduce the risk of foreign exchange rate fluctuations to enhance quality of accounting profits through Financial reporting to local units In accordance with international financial reporting standards, To accomplish this objective was selected a sample of Iraqi units exposed to the risk of fluctuations in foreign currency rates, As the research found:

  • many companies and banks in the local environment a lot of losses due to fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates.
  • that financial derivatives in the Iraqi environment represent

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Crossref (2)
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Publication Date
Thu Jun 30 2016
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Correlation of blood, salivary glucose levels and bloo HbA1c% in healthy and previously diagnosed Diabetes Mellitus Type 2 in a sec ion of patients of Baghdad hospital, Iraq

Background: Diabetes mellitus is a metabolic disorder affecting people worldwide, which require constant monitoring of their glucose levels. Commonly employed procedures include collection of blood or urine samples causing discomfort to the patients. Necessity arises to find alternative non invasive technique is required to monitor glucose levels. Saliva is one of most abundant secretions in the human body and its collection is easy, noninvasive and painless technique. Objective: The aim of this study was to determine the efficacy of saliva as a diagnostic tool by study the correlation between blood and salivary glucose levels and glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c%) in diabetes and non diabetes, and the comparison of salivary glucose level

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2014
Journal Name
Department Of Bioengineering And Sciences
1 T.R. KAHRAMANMARAŞ SÜTÇÜ İMAM UNIVERSITY GRADUATE SCHOOL OF NATURAL AND APPLIED SCIENCE Cloning and overexpression of Lactobacillus acidophilus bile salt hydrolase A gene (bshA) in Escherichia coli

The bile salt hydrolase gene (bshA), encoding bile salt hydrolase enzyme (EC 3.5.1.24) from probiotic isolate Lactobacillus acidophilus Ar strain which is responsible for assimilation cholesterol were studied in the present work. About 801 bp in length DNA fragment of Lb. acidophilus Ar strain was amplified by PCR techniques. Two restriction sites (PstI/SacI) were added to each end of that fragment for manipulation of DNA during cloning. Amplified fragment inserted into pJET1.2\blunt end vector and pMG36e vector respectively. pJET1.2\blunt end vector is overexpression plasmid for E. coli MC1022, and pMG36e vector is a shuttle vector which is able to replicate in both E. coli and lactic acid bacteria. The resulted constructs were named as pJ

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Causal relationship between sugar prices, imported sun flower oil, crude oil prices and the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar

Abstract

The increasing of some traded Agricultural crops prices coincide with the increasing of crude oil prices in global market since the beginning of 21st century which indicate the possibility of short run and long run causality relation between the imported economic variables. The study aims to analysis the causality effects between some of Agricultural crops prices imported by Iraq and the prices of crude oil and Iraq dinar exchange rate   in global markets for period (2004:1 -2016:4) theory for developing the adequate price and economic police for Iraqi economic sector. The results show the existence of short- run and long- run between the eco

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