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Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application

Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 29 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Polygamy and its impact on academic achievement and self-confidence among a sample from Sattam bin Abdul Aziz University students

The study aimed to recognize the impact of polygamy on academic achievement and self-confidence among Sattam bin Abdul Aziz University students. To achieve this goal, the researchers used the Descriptive Analytical method using The Self Confidence measurement ,that has been prepared for the purposes of this study, consists set of 29 questions, then applied to the students sample that emerges from polygamy and one- wife families, study sample consists of randomly selected 230 students registered for the year .1435-1436
The results of the study showed presence of medium statistical impact on the significance level (a 4 0.05), this proof significant statistical effect of polygamy on self-confidence among the sample of Prince Sat-tam Univ

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 20 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Calculate the Average Run Length (ARL) to Detect the Deviation in the Process A case Study in an Industrial Organization

 

Statistical control charts are widely used in industry for process and measurement control . in this paper we study the use of markov chain approach in calculating the average run length (ARL) of cumulative sum (Cusum) control chart for defect the shifts in the mean of process , and exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control charts for defect the shifts for process mean and , the standard deviation . Also ,we used the EWMA charts based on the logarithm of the sample variance for monitoring a process standard deviation when the observations (products are selected from al_mamun factory ) are identically and independently distributed (iid) from normal distribution in continuous manufacturing .

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Publication Date
Mon Nov 10 2014
Journal Name
Advances In Language And Literary Studies
The Functions of Onomatopoeia in Modern English and Arabic Poetry: A Study in Selected Poems by Lawrence and al-Sayyab

Onomatopoeia has always been a functional poetic device which enjoys a high sound significance in the poetry of many languages. In modern English and Arabic poetry alike, it proves to be vital and useful at different levels: musical, thematic and at the level of meaning. Still, the cultural difference looms large over the ways it is employed by the poets of each. The present paper investigates the employment of onomatopoeia in the poetry of D. H. Lawrence (1885-1930) and Badr Shakir al-Sayyab (1926-1964) who are chosen due to the importance they enjoy in modern English and Arabic poetry and the richness of their poems in onomatopoeias. The conclusions reached at are in a sense related to cultural differences which govern the use of onomato

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 05 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
A comparative study in disruptive behavior at the Deprived and non-Deprived students from their parents at the Secondary stage

The current research aims to :
•know the level of the chaotic behavior of the sample as a whole .
•Know the differences with statistical significance in disorderly behavior between the
disadvantaged and non-disadvantaged peers .
To achieve these objectives, the selected sample of Talbhalmrahlh medium and specifically
students of the second grade average, were chosen randomly stratified's (360) students
included sex (male, female) and (deprived of the Father and the non-deprived) for the
academic year (2013-2014) to the province Baghdad on both sides (Rusafa-Karkh (
As applied to them measurements of disorderly behavior, which is prepared by the researcher,
having achieved _khasaúsma of psychometric (valid

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Publication Date
Mon Apr 02 2012
Journal Name
Eastern Mediterranean Health Journal
Knowledge, attitude and practice regarding breast cancer and breast self-examination among a sample of the educated population in Iraq

This cross-sectional, questionnaire-based study evaluated the knowledge, attitude and practice towards breast cancer and breast self-examination [‎BSE]‎ among 387 [‎302 females and 85 males]‎ educated Iraqis affiliated to 2 Iraqi universities. The participants were categorized into 3 occupations: student [‎71.3%]‎, teaching staff [‎10.3%]‎ and administrative staff [‎18.3%]‎. About half of the participants had a low knowledge score [‎< 50%]‎; only 14.3% were graded as [‎Good]‎ and above. Almost 75% of the participants believed that the best way to control breast cancer was through early detection and other possible preventive measures. Most participants [‎90.9%]‎ had heard of BSE, the main source of informatio

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2022
Journal Name
Canadian Journal Of Chemistry
Hydrogenation of pyridine and hydrogenolysis of piperidine over <i>γ-</i>Mo<sub>2</sub>N catalyst: a DFT study

Increasing demands on producing environmentally friendly products are becoming a driving force for designing highly active catalysts. Thus, surfaces that efficiently catalyse the nitrogen reduction reactions are greatly sought in moderating air-pollutant emissions. This contribution aims to computationally investigate the hydrodenitrogenation (HDN) networks of pyridine over the γ-Mo2N(111) surface using a density functional theory (DFT) approach. Various adsorption configurations have been considered for the molecularly adsorbed pyridine. Findings indicate that pyridine can be adsorbed via side-on and end-on modes in six geometries in which one adsorption site is revealed to have the lowest adsorption energy (

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Publication Date
Fri May 19 2023
Journal Name
Revista Iberoamericana De PsicologÍa Del Ejercicio Y El Deporte
The Effect of a Training Curriculum According To the Physiological Index and the Transitional Speed of the 100m Hurdles Runner

Recently, that there has been a decline in the levels of female players for this event in recent years compared to developments in the world, as this activity depends to achieve the highest level of performance on the physical capabilities and physiological indicators of the player who It is reflected in the achievement, which results in the loss of time for Iraqi female runners compared to the world champions in the (100) meter hurdles competition, which reflects on the level of achievement. The two researchers used the experimental approach in addressing the research problem, and the experimental design used the method of the two equal groups, the two experiments with the pre and post-tests. Female runner and second experimental group (4)

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Scopus
Publication Date
Mon Mar 15 2021
Journal Name
Al-academy
Anthropology and Representations of Magic in Arab Theatrical Text Harut and Marut's Play as a Model: وصال خلفة كاظم البكري

The research (Anthropology and Representations of magic in Arab Theatrical Text, Harut and Marut's play as a Model) is concerned with studying magic and the forms of its presence in the theatrical text in different human cultures where it belongs. The research consists of four chapters.
The first chapter includes the research problem that revolves around the following questions: (what is the mechanism of employing magic anthropology and its representations in the Arab theatrical text Harut and Marut's play as a model?), and the research importance which is attributed to the necessity of studying (magic) in the Arab theatrical text as it is considered the inauguration of one of the social phenomena that many researchers in the field o

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The applicability of green productivity tools: An analytical study in a sample of industrial companies in the province of Nineveh

                The current research aims to identify the most important green productivity tools GPT and the possibility of applied in industrial companies in general and the companies operating in the province of Nineveh, in particular, as well as the study of some personality characteristics and functional, which is believed to be an impact on the application of these tools in industrial companies. Accordingly, the research community of managers in the company of medicines and medical supplies ready-made clothes _ operating in the province of Nineveh, who are (80) while the manager was subjected to research procedures (49) Director representing (61.25%)

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 07 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Russian politics and geographical variable fixed in under the geostrategic changes (A study in the geo-political perspective and geopolitics)

The purpose of this study is to show the constants and variables geography in Russian
policy in light of variables geostrategic witnessed by the world, especially after the collapse
of the Soviet Union and the disintegration to fifteen Republic became the Russian Federation
and the heir to the Soviet Union, Geography particularly important because the impact of its
data in policy making less change ofothers, and explain the political choices cannot achieve
security through its relationship constants geographical (natural or human) paint forms of
economic activity and determine the points they national security. issue is the geographical
this or that country is determined by its policy also specifies the way in which

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