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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
SER Y ESTAR EN LA ENSEÑANZA Y EL APRENDIZAJE DEL ELE Verb (to be) in Learning and Teaching Spanish as a Foreign Language
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Resumen

El presente trabajo nace de una inquietud por la enseñanza del español en Irak a nivel universitario especialmente ante las dificultades que los alumnos árabes en general, e iraquíes en particular, encuentran en su proceso de aprendizaje. Nuestra primera inclinación fue, pues, prestar una atención directa  y cercana al alumno como sujeto del aprendizaje, así como a lo que el alumno produce como resultado del mismo. En el presente trabajo pretendemos dotar al estudiante de los conocimientos lingüísticos necesarios para poder interaccionar en una variedad de situaciones y enfrentarse a problemas cotidianos, de manera que desarrolle las destrezas comunicativas que le permitan establecer una co

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Effect of importance in the Intellectual Capital On Internal control Systems Analytical Research in A sample of general inspectors’ offices in Iraq
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The research aims to know the influence of the intellectual capital on the internal control system in a sample of General Inspection Offices in Iraq. The research includes a sample of individuals who are working in these offices total sample (46) individuals distributed according to functional levels (General Inspector, Deputy Inspector General, and Director) , The data and information were collected by using questionnaire, which is done for this purpose, as well as personal interviews in order to reach to the results that achieve the aim of this research , Two hypotheses were formed , the first hypothesis consists of (4) secondary hypothesis , All these hypotheses were tested by using statistical tools such as (percentages, freq

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Publication Date
Wed Apr 19 2017
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Derivation of Mathematical Equations to Calculate the Geographical Coordinates of Unknown Position Situated at a Distance from the Observer Position Using GPS Data
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     This research introduced the derivation of mathematical equations to calculate the Cartesian and geographical coordinates of a site situated at a far distance from the observer position by using GPS data. The geographical coordinates (Ï•obs., λ obs., hobs.) for observer position were transformed to Cartesian coordinates (X obs., Y obs., Z obs.) of observer position itself. Then the Cartesian coordinates of unknown position mathematically were calculated from these calculated equations, and its transformed to geographical coordinates of (Ï•unk., λunk.) position.
 

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Publication Date
Wed May 01 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Studies In Humanities And Educational Sciences
Unlocking the Language of the Heart: A Stylistic Analysis of EmotiveTechniques in Paulo Coelho's By the River Piedra I Sat Down and Wept
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This paper presents an in-depth stylistic analysis of the linguistic artistry andliterary techniques employed by Paulo Coelho in his novel By the River Piedra ISat Down and Wept. A close reading approach guided by stylistics and linguisticsframeworks reveals Coelho's extensive incorporation of imaginative metaphors,vivid imagery, poetic diction, and resonant symbols across the narrative. Analysisspecifically elucidates how Coelho adeptly manipulates various stylistic features toconvey thematic content, shape characterization, and produce aesthetic impacts.Findings provide critical insights into Coelho’s linguistic mastery and contribute toresearch in stylistics and literary linguistics through rigorous examination of anentire contemporary

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 03 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The Role of Integrated Reporting in Reducing Information Asymmetry: Analytical Research of A sample of Iraqi Banks listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange
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Allowing Iraqi companies to use multiple systems and policies leads to varying levels of disclosure and no high symmetry between report preparers and users, and that the adoption of integrated reporting can reduce information asymmetry. The theoretical side addressed the concepts of these variables, and in the practical side the binary variable (0, 1) was used. To compensate for the value of the independent variable (integrated reporting) based on the Central Bank of Iraq’s classification of banks according to the (CAMLES) index, and the dependent variable (information asymmetry) was measured through two measures (price difference, unusual return), the research community was represented by (5) Banks out of the total of banks li

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Publication Date
Mon Jul 14 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Management of Independent Middle Mesial Canal in Mandibular First Molar Using Cone Beam Computed Tomography Imaging as an Adjunct – A Case Report
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The primary objective of root canal therapy is adequate biomechanical preparation of root canal system followed by 3D obturation.in clinics we are encountered with several anatomical variations, which we need to manage efficiently. One of the major factors responsible for failure of root canal therapy is missed canals. Recent technological advances have given the clinician opportunity to identify anatomical variations and treat them to satisfaction.

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Global Pharma Technology
Preparation, Characterization and Biological Activity of New Derivatives of 3-Cyclic Oxazepine, 3-Cyclic Lactam and 3- Aminomethyl Imidazo (1, 2-a) Benzthiazol
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In this work a series of fourteen new compounds were synthesized. Compound [1] was formed from the reaction of 2-aminobenzothiazole and p-bromophenacyl bromide. Aldehyde group [2] was obtained from the reaction of compound [1] with pocl3 in presence of DMF and CHCl3 .After that shiff bases have been synthesized from the reaction of compound [2] with different aromatic amine to give new shiff bases [3- 5]. These new shiff bases have been reduced to their corresponding amine [6-8] by means of sodium borohydride. Then reaction of shiff bases [3-5] with phenyl isocyanate gives 3-cyclic lactam derivatives [9-11]. 3-cyclic Oxazepine derivatives [12-14] were obtained by reaction of shiff bases [3-5] with succinic anhydride. These new formed co

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 03 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The effect of the Banking Capital on Finance Fixed Assets of the Bank: An Applied Study on a Sample of Iraqi Private Banks
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To the Banks capital several uses, including the protection of deposits and this was approved by the Basel Committee, And Finance long-term investments which intended to investment in fixed assets that are essential to the continuation of banking activity, Fixed assets not financed from the funds of the deposit, but the owner equity do this jop. the current research tries to prove the effect of banks capital on fixed assets for a sample of iraqi private banks (bank of baghdad and Iraqi middle east Investment bank), for the period from 2011 until 2014. The research concluded that the capital of bank of baghdad affect on his total fixed assets by (84%), and the capital of Iraqi middle east Investment bank affect on his total fixed assets b

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 27 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Analysis of factors affecting the desire of the customer and their impact on the market share in a competitive market National Insurance Company
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The research aims to identify the factors affecting the customer and their impact desire for market share in a competitive market National Insurance Company, where he was after the tremendous developments that have taken place in the insurance sector, crowded markets, private companies and the intensified competition among those companies on one side and public sector companies, including national insurance company on the other hand, increased attention and study in a big way the customer and the factors influencing the desire. As the national insurance company ascertains its targets once the sale of insurance documents only, but by knowing the tendencies and aspirations of current and prospective customers a way that helps to strengthen

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 28 2023
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
The Role of Television News Headlines in Attracting Viewers to News Bulletins: A Field Study from 01/01/2023 to 31/03/2023
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The objective of this study is to ascertain the pivotal role of headlines in captivating viewers' attention toward news bulletins. Additionally, it aims to explore the factors that contribute to the correlation between headlines and the public's acceptance or rejection of the meticulously crafted news articles presented through these bulletins. The study delves into the mechanisms employed in writing and editing headlines, focusing on their style, expert composition, and intriguing nature. These factors inevitably influence the level of acceptance and engagement of the viewership with the news articles disseminated via the news bulletins. Employing a descriptive methodology, the researcher distributed 200 question

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