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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Green Innovation and its Impact in Reinforcing Sustainable Competitive Advantage: An Exploratory Study of Opinions of a Sample of Employees in the Karungi group in Kirkuk
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The development of the world, and in light of the intensity of competition highlighted the need to research and create a sustainable competitive advantage is sustained from an internal source in the company earned by the scarcity and difficulty of imitation by competitors, and this source is green innovation. In order to achieve the objective of the research, which is the diagnosis and analysis of the relationship between green innovation (in products, processes) and sustainable competitive advantage in the group of companies Kronji, was developed a default model of the research reflects the nature of the relationship and influence among its variables, the research adopted the questionnaire as a key tool for collecting data and i

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 01 2017
Journal Name
Bulletin Of The Iraq Natural History Museum (p-issn: 1017-8678 , E-issn: 2311-9799)
FIRST RECORD OF ADONTOMERUS AMYGDALI (BOUCEK, 1958) (HYMENOPTERA, TORYMIDAE): A PARASITOID OF THE ALMOND FRUIT WASP, EURYTOMA AMYGDALI ENDERLEIN, 1907 (HYMENOPTERA, EURYTOMIDAE) IN ERBIL PROVENCE, IRAQ
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    Adontomerus amygdali (Boucek, 1958) (Hymenoptera, Torymidae) is recorded for the first time in Iraq, parasitizing almond fruits wasp, Eurytoma amygdali Enderlein, 1907 (Hymenoptera, Eurytomidae) infesting fruits of almond trees Prunus dulcis (Mill.) D. A. Webb (=Amygdalus communis Linn.)   growing in Koysinjaq district, Erbil, Iraq. A short morphological description of this species is presented.

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Publication Date
Tue Jul 01 2014
Journal Name
Bulletin Of The Iraq Natural History Museum (p-issn: 1017-8678 , E-issn: 2311-9799)
A DESCRIPTION STUDY OF TWO LOCAL FISH HIMRI CARASOBARBUS LUTEUS (Heckel, 1843)(CYPRINIFORMES: CYPRINIDAE) AND HISHNI LIZA ABU (Heckel, 1843) (MUGILOIDEI : MUGILIDAE) BY BONES STAINING METHOD
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    Two local fish Himri Carasobarbus luteus (Heckel, 1843)  and Hishni Liza abu (Heckel, 1843) were stained with Alizarin Red and featured some anatomical qualities which cleared the difference of the muscular and skeletal fabric for each fish. Since clear Histologic differences appeared in these two species, it was intended from this study the possibility of adopting a diagnosis between local fish species by staining bones and tissues.

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Publication Date
Sat Aug 02 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Immunohistochemical expression of MMP9, as a marker of local invasion in Hodgkin’s and Non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma of the head and neck region
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Background: Malignant lymphoma is the generic term given to tumors of the lymphoid system and specifically of lymphocytes and their precursor cells, While all lymphomas are malignant neoplasms, there is a wide spectrum of clinical behavior, with some following an indolent clinical course and others behaving in an aggressive manner (will causing death in a short time frame if left untreated). The metastatic process involves intravasation and extravasation of tumor cells, followed by reimplantation of tumor cells, formation of a new tumor stoma, Degradation of the extracellular matrix and components of the basement membrane by proteases facilitates the detachment of tumor cells, their crossing of tissue boundaries, and invasion into adjacent

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 01 2023
Journal Name
Health Science Reports
Diagnostic potential of salivary interleukin‐17, RANKL, and OPG to differentiate between periodontal health and disease and discriminate stable and unstable periodontitis: A case‐control study
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Abstract<sec><title>Background and Aims

Limitations of the conventional diagnostic techniques urged researchers to seek novel methods to predict, diagnose, and monitor periodontal disease. Use of the biomarkers available in oral fluids could be a revolutionary surrogate for the manual probing/diagnostic radiograph. Several salivary biomarkers have the potential to accurately discriminate periodontal health and disease. This study aimed to determine the diagnostic sensitivity and specificity of salivary interleukin (IL)‐17, receptor activator of nuclear factor‐κB ligand (RANKL), osteoprotegerin (OPG), RANKL/OPG for differentiating (1) periodontal health from disease and (2) stable a

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Publication Date
Wed Apr 09 2014
Journal Name
Chemical And Process Engineering Research
Analytical Profile of 4 - (4-Nitro Benzene Azo) - 3 - Amino Benzoic Acid on a Surface of Natural Granulated Calcined Iraqi Montmorillonite Clay Mineral, via Columnar Method
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The adsorption ability of Iraqi initiated calcined granulated montmorillonite to adsorb of 4-(4-Nitrobenzeneazo) 3-Aminobenzoic Acid from aqueous solutions has been investigated through columnar method. The azo dye adsorption found to be dependent on adsorbent dosage, initial concentration and contact time. All columnar experiments were carried out at three different pH values (5.5, 7and 8) using buffer solutions at flow rate of (3 drops/ min.), at room temperature (25±2) °C. The experimental isotherm data were analyzed using Langmuir, Freundlich and Temkin equations. The monolayer adsorption capacity is 6.4066 mg Azo ligand per 1g calcined Montmorillonite. The experiments showed that highest removal rate 90.5 % for azo dye at pH 5.5.The

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Effect of Using Information and Communication Technology to Improving the Quality of Blended Learning Elements’, a Survey Study at the Technical College of Management /Baghdad
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 The research has been based on two main variables (information and communication technology) and the quality of blended education (physical and electronic), aiming to reveal the relationship between four dimensions (physical devices, software, databases, communication networks) and the elements of education represented by (the teacher, the student, the teaching process, curriculum).  The methodology and post-analysis-based research were conducted at the Technical College of Management / Baghdad through polling the opinions of a random sample that included (80) teachers out of (86) and the number of students (276) representing a random sample from all departments of the college (for the morning study) out of (3500) stud

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Effect of strategic thinking in human resource management strategies “Analytical field study of the views of a sample of managers in the Iraqi Ministry of Health”
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The researcher attempts to diagnose the level of the effect  of strategic thinking skills (intuition, meditation, creativity) of the managers in the Ministry of Health in Iraq and some of its institutions in the formulation of human resources management: (selection, training, incentivence , performance appraisal (Recognizing the importance of the subjects studied, and because of the importance of the expected results of th

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 14 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Effectiveness of Cognitive-Behavioral Guidance Program in Reducing the Level of Addiction on Social Media in a Sample of High School Students in Karak Schools
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Abstract

The current research aims to develop a guidance program suitable for high school students and apply it to them in order to ensure the reduction of addiction to the use of different means of communication. The researchers used the scale of addiction to the means of communication (SAS) to measure the level of addiction as well as to identify the impact of the proposed guidance program in reducing the degree of addiction to communication. It was applied to a sample of (20) female students divided equally into two groups: an experimental group of (10) female students and a control group of (10) female students from the secondary level in a school under the department of education in the education of the alma

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 02 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
Animal-Based Metaphors as Being a Lingua-Cultural Way in the Field of Football Club Titles: Зооморфная метафора как лингвокультурологический способ в области прозвищ футбольных клубов
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       Metaphor is a linguistic phenomenon related to people's cultures. It is an integral part of cultural heritage. This paper tackles the use of animal-based metaphors in the field of football club titles so as to draw comparisons between those in Russian with their counterparts in Arabic. Names of animals are used to refer to some clubs and teams, where these names or titles reflect animal features such as strength, preying on victims; or animal figures are employed in the club symbols, or due to the similarity of the club shirt to the animal outer shapes in colours. For instance, "an-Nawaris", which means gulls in English, is used to refer to az-Zawraa club du

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