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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Physics: Conference Series
The effect of left ventricle ischemia severity on cardiac performance appeared on ejection fraction using radioactive TC <sup>99m</sup> MIBI in comparison with echocardiography
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Abstract<p>Ischemic heart disease is a major causes of heart failure. Heart failure patients have predominantly left ventricular dysfunction (systolic or diastolic dysfunction, or both). Acute heart failure is most commonly caused by reduced myocardial contractility, and increased LV stiffness. We performed echocardiography and gated SPECT with Tc<sup>99m</sup> MIBI within 263 patients and 166 normal individuals. Left ventricular end systolic volume (LVESV), left ventricular end diastolic volume (LVEDV), and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) were measured. For all degrees of ischemia, there was a significant difference between ejection fraction values measured by SPECT and echo</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Fri Feb 08 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Laser
Effects of 650 nm Diode Laser and 532 nm Frequency-Doubled Q-Switched Nd:YAG Laser on The Growth of Candida albicans, With and Without Photosensitizers
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This work describes an experimental setup to evaluate the photodynamictoxicity of 650 nm diode laser and 532 nm Frequency-doubled Q-Switched Nd:YAG laser on the growth of Candida albicans as well as the potential fungicidal effect when combining the laser irradiation with specific photosensitizers namely methylene blue, toluidine blue, acridine orange and safranin O. In this study the findings showed that the number of colony-forming units per millilitre (CFU/ml) of C. albicans decreased with increasing exposure time. In particular in the case of the frequency doubled Nd:YAG laser combined with safranin O, the best lethal effect occurred at 11 minutes exposure time with 2.26 J/cm² energy density (89.18% reduction) in comparison with the

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
Macromolecular Characterization Of Hydrocarbons For Sustainable Future
Feasibility of the Gas and Downhole Water Sink-Assisted Gravity Drainage (GDWS-AGD) Process to Enhance the Recovery of Oil in Reservoirs with Strong Aquifer
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Gas and Downhole Water Sink, Gravity Drainage, GDWS-AGD, Enhance the Recovery of Oil

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 29 2017
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
Evaluation of the Relation between Asthma, Obesity and Leptin Level in Iraqi Asthmatic Patients and the Main Risk Factors that are Associated with Leptin Level
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This study tries to clear the correlation and association between asthma, obesity and leptin levels. Also it will work to indicate the main risk factors which play role in the elevation of leptin level within asthmatic patients.  This is a case control study conducted on (38) asthmatic patients and (20) healthy control who were closely similar by age, gender and BMI. The main statistical tests used were student t test, linear regression test and correlation test. Significance was set at P < 0.05. Sampling method used for this study was convenience sampling method.  The main results of this study show a significant association and positive correlation between age (old age  â‰¥ 40 ye

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 01 2020
Journal Name
Meta Gene
Waterpipe tobacco smoking and gene variants of CYP1A1-Ile462Val and -MspI polymorphisms are possibly associated with the risk of lung cancer in the Iraqi population
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Background: Previous studies about the correlation of genetic polymorphisms in the multigene family of cyto- chrome P450 (CYPs), the effect of tobacco smoking, and the risk of developing cancer have been well in- vestigated in different populations, but not in Iraq. Furthermore, the studies of malignance occurrence re- lationship with cigarette tobacco smoking revealed the presence of strong association, however, little is known about the risk of Waterpipe (WP) tobacco smoking. Thus, determination two important genetic polymorphisms in CYP1A1, a main member of CYPs, among Iraqi men was our first aim. This is the first study that highlights the correlation of CYP1A1 polymorphisms with the risk of lung cancer in Iraq. The second aim was to ev

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 02 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Nonlinear optical properties of polymer [PMMA] thin films doped with dye lasing compounds, Rhodamine 6G and Acriflavine in chloroform solvent by using dip coating method
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The fluorescence emission of Rhodamine 6G (R6G) and Acriflavine dyes in PMMA polymer have been studied by changing the irradiation and exposure time of laser light to know the effect of this parameter. It was found that the fluorescence intensity decreases in the polymer samples doped dyes as the exposure time increases and then reaches stabilization at long times, this behavior called photobleaching, which have been shown in liquid phase less than solid phase. Using 2nd harmonic with wavelength 530 nm laser, the photobleaching effect in the two dye-doped polymers different solvent but same was studied. It was observed that photobleaching of by different solution and by using dip spin coating the photobleaching seem in liquid phase

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 04 2021
Journal Name
International Journal Of Drug Delivery Technology
Evaluation of the Anti-inflammatory and Anti-oxidant Activity of Crab Components and Crab Shell in Experimental Rats in Comparison with Dexamethasone and Diclofenac Sodium
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Crabs belong to the crustacean family (Decapods crustacean), and their shells contain natural ingredients from which the bioactive compounds are derived. It has been used as folklore medicine in cancer treatment. We investigate the possible anti-inflammatory and anti-oxidant effects for crab shells and whole crabs. Thirty-six rats (150–200 gm) from both sexes were used, divided into six groups, the anti-inflammatory and anti-oxidant activity measured using cotton pellet induce granuloma model. Detection of tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF α), Interleukin 1 beta (IL-1β), superoxide (SOD), and malondialdehyde (MDA) levels using ELISA Kits. The data analysis by one-way ANOVA followed by the Tukey test. Values are significant at (p < 0.05).

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Publication Date
Sat Aug 23 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Physical Education
The Effect of Special Exercises Using with Assisting Aids According to Differentiated Learning (Visual Learners) in Learning Crescent Kick in Fighters of Specialized Taekwondo schools
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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2018
Journal Name
World Journal Of Dentistry
Differential Expression of Toll-like Receptor 4 and Nuclear Factor κB of Primary Rat Oral Keratinocytes in Response to Stimulation with<i>Fusobacterium nucleatum</i>
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Publication Date
Fri Sep 05 2014
Journal Name
International Journal Of Pharmacy And Pharmaceutical Sciences0975-1491
THE CORRELATION BETWEEN FRAMINGHAM RISK SCORE AND THE CLINICAL AND BIOCHEMICAL PARAMETERS THAT MEASURE FUNCTIONAL DISABILITY AND DISEASE ACTIVITY IN IRAQI PATIENTS WITH RHEUMATOID ARTHRITIS
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Objective: Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients have increased morbidity and mortality from premature cardiovascular (CV) disease (CVD). Framingham risk score (FRS) is a simplified coronary prediction tool developed to enable clinicians to assess the risk of a cardiovascular event and to identify candidate patients for risk factors modifications worldwide. The predictive ability of the FRS varies between populations, ethnic groups, and socio-economic status. The aim of this study is to find if there is any correlation between the Framingham risk score and the inflammatory and biochemical parameters used to measure disease activity and functional ability in Iraqi patients with active RA.

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