Preferred Language
Articles
/
jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
...Show More Authors

Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

Crossref
View Publication Preview PDF
Quick Preview PDF
Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2008
Journal Name
J Bagh College Of Dentistry
A comparative study of the sealing ability of two different obturation techniques with and without the use of sealers.
...Show More Authors

Background: The final stage of endodontic therapy is complete obturation of the root canal system to provide as perfect as possible at the cementodentinal junction of the apical foramen. The purpose of this in vitro study was to evaluate the sealing ability of injection molded thermoplasticized gutta percha and lateral condensation techniques with and without the use of sealers. Materials and Methods: Forty freshly extracted adult human maxillary central incisors with complete formed apices were utilized in this study. The teeth were randomly divided into four groups for evaluation of the apical seal. Group (1) lateral condensation gutta percha technique without sealer, (2) lateral condensation gutta percha technique with sealer, (3) Inject

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Sun Dec 05 2010
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Immunoglobulins assessment (IgE,G,A,M) in some Iraqi patients with acute and chronic urticaria
...Show More Authors

60 patients diagnosed as having urticaria were included in the study ; 30 patients were effected with acute urticaria and 30 patients were affected with chronic urticaria. In addition, 30 healthy adult volunteers were selected as control group .The patients and control groups sera were examined with enzyme linked immunosorbent assay ( ELISA) to detect total level IgE and radial immunodiffusion (RID) to detect levels of IgG , IgA and IgM . The total level of IgE in acute urticaria ( 1.45±0.13) IU/mL and chronic urticaria (2.12 ± 0.10) IU/mL patients were significantly higher than the control groups ( 0.85 ± 0.10)IU/mL (p<0.05). The level of IgG in acute urticaria ( 12.5± 0.42) g/L and chronic (13.16±0.40) g/L patients , IgA in acute (2.

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref
Publication Date
Thu Jul 01 2021
Journal Name
International Journal Of Drug Delivery Technology
Association between some risk factors with hormonal state in a sample of infertile iraqi women
...Show More Authors

Scopus
Publication Date
Sun Mar 13 2011
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Some A Survey Study On The Role of Women in Controlling Parasites Contaminated with Vegetables.
...Show More Authors

Three hundred samples of washing water of vegetables were collected from women aged ( 15- 6o) years from different area in Baghdad governorate and its suburbs include two rural area ( Jaddria in Baghdad university and Al –Wagif in Rashdia) and two urbane area (Mansoure and Escan) . The samples were examined by precipitation method and then by staining method ( Lugols –Iodine stain) . The percentage of infection of intestinal parasites 36.3% include 15.3% for urban area and 57.3% in rural area and a significant difference was found between those groups . .The results showed also increased in the prevalence of parasitic infection in group age (15 -30) year .Also the results showed only 109 sample infected with eight specie

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref
Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Biology, Agriculture And Healthcare
Histopathological Changes of Some Internal Organs of Mice Injected with Exotoxin a at Low Concentrations
...Show More Authors

Abstract Exotoxin A is the most lethal virulence factor produced by Pseudomonas aeruginosa. It inhibits elongation factor-2 by ADP-ribosylation of EF2. This causes stop of the elongation of polypeptides. In recent study, the effect of low concentration of exotoxin A on some important internal organs of mice was studied. Four groups white mice were injected intraperitonialy with pure exotoxin A in the following manner 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4 ng\ animals. One mouse receives normal saline inrtaperitonialy as a control. After 72 hours the mice were killed and four organs were taken, liver, spleen, lung and heart from each killed mice. Histological sections were made from each organ and stained with hematoxylin and eosin stain then examined under mic

... Show More
Publication Date
Mon Feb 04 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
A study of Fermi hole and partial Fermi hole for Li- and C-Atoms in different states 1s 2p, 1s 3p, 1s 3d and 2s 2p
...Show More Authors

The electron correlation effect for inter-shell have been analysed in terms of Fermi hole and partial Fermi hole for Li-atom in the excited states (1s2 3p) and (1s2 3d) using Hartree-Fock approximation (HF). Fermi hole Δf(r12) and partial Fermi hole Δg(r12 ,r1) were determined in position space. Each plot of the physical properties in this work is normalized to unity. The calculation was performed using Mathcad 14 program.

View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref
Publication Date
Tue Mar 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
A reformation Study about the Construction Management in the Primary Stage Curricula’s for the Civil Engineering in Some of the Iraqi Universities
...Show More Authors

There is no doubt that the field of education and teaching (in any country and whatever its ruling system varies “d”) is considered one of the most specific and sensitive field, because it is related to the building of human. And as the human is a purpose (aim) and the means in the same time and he is the strategist capital, so he way of his rearing, education, choosing the educator, methods of working and the aims are considered serious matters.

     The educational process has aim determined by the society for him self through its working establishments in this field and these are the official and public establishments. And as he feels that the establishments have failed to achieve its d

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Sat Sep 30 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Diagnosing the reality of applying the operating requirement according to the international specification for the business continuity management system (ISO 22301:2019) : applied research in the General Tax Authority
...Show More Authors

Abstract

                 The research aims to diagnose the reality of applying the eighth requirement (operation) of the business continuity management system according to the international standard (ISO 22301: 2019), in the General Tax Authority, which is related to planning, implementing and controlling specific processes and procedures to address risks and opportunities, and the research adopted the checklist of the standard ( ISO 22301: 2019), in obtaining information, to measure the extent of application and documentation, the percentages and the weighted arithmetic mean were relied upon, and the research reached a set of result

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Sun Mar 17 2019
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Plasma Spectroscopy Diagnostics of V2O5 at a Variable of Operating Power and Pressure With Radio Frequency Magnetron Sputtering.
...Show More Authors

   In this paper, we investigate the basic characteristics of "magnetron sputtering plasma" using the target V2O5. The "magnetron sputtering plasma" is produced using "radio frequency (RF)" power supply and Argon gas. The intensity of the light emission from atoms and radicals in the plasma measured by using "optical emission spectrophotometer", and the appeared peaks in all patterns match the standard lines from NIST database and employed are to estimate the plasma parameters, of computes electron temperature and the electrons density. The characteristics of V2O5 sputtering plasma at multiple discharge provisos are studied at the "radio frequency" (RF) power ranging from 75 - 150 Wat

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Scopus (1)
Scopus Clarivate Crossref
Publication Date
Sun Sep 01 2019
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Synthesis, Characterization and Antimicrobial Activity Study of Some New Substituted Benzoxazole Derivatives
...Show More Authors

This research included the preparation of 2-mercaptobenzoxazole (N1) by the reaction of ortho-aminophenol with carbon disulfide in an alcoholic potassium hydroxide solution. The 2-mercapto benzoxazole (N1) was then treated with hydrazine to obtain the 2-hydrazino benzoxazole (N2). A number of hydrazones (N3-N5) were prepared through the reaction of N2 with different benzaldehydes. The compound (N6) was also prepared whereby the ring closing of hydrazone (N3) using chloroacetylchloride, while the compound (N7) was prepared by treating 2-hydrazino benzoxazole with acetylacetone. When the compound (N1) was treated with formaldehyde, it afforded the compound (N8). Also, the N9 was obtained from the reaction of N1 with chloroacetic acid in th

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Scopus (14)
Crossref (15)
Scopus Crossref