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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 05 2021
Journal Name
Materials
Optimum Placement of Heating Tubes in a Multi-Tube Latent Heat Thermal Energy Storage
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Utilizing phase change materials in thermal energy storage systems is commonly considered as an alternative solution for the effective use of energy. This study presents numerical simulations of the charging process for a multitube latent heat thermal energy storage system. A thermal energy storage model, consisting of five tubes of heat transfer fluids, was investigated using Rubitherm phase change material (RT35) as the. The locations of the tubes were optimized by applying the Taguchi method. The thermal behavior of the unit was evaluated by considering the liquid fraction graphs, streamlines, and isotherm contours. The numerical model was first verified compared with existed experimental data from the literature. The outcomes re

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 20 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
A Word Cloud Model based on Hate Speech in an Online Social Media Environment
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Social media is known as detectors platform that are used to measure the activities of the users in the real world. However, the huge and unfiltered feed of messages posted on social media trigger social warnings, particularly when these messages contain hate speech towards specific individual or community. The negative effect of these messages on individuals or the society at large is of great concern to governments and non-governmental organizations. Word clouds provide a simple and efficient means of visually transferring the most common words from text documents. This research aims to develop a word cloud model based on hateful words on online social media environment such as Google News. Several steps are involved including data acq

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 29 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Studying and Analyzing Operating Conditions of Hollow Fiber Membrane Preparation Process: A Review Paper
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Polymeric hollow fiber membrane is produced by a physical process called wet or dry/wet phase inversion; a technique includes many steps and depends on different factors (starting from selecting materials, end with post-treatment of hollow fiber membrane locally manufactured). This review highlights the most significant factors that affect and control the characterization and structure of ultrafiltration hollow fiber membranes used in different applications.    

   Three different types of polymers (polysulfone PSF, polyethersulfone PES or polyvinyl chloride PVC) were considered to study morphology change and structure of hollow fiber membranes in this review. These hollow fiber membranes were manufactured with different pro

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 30 2008
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Kinetic Study on Catalytic Wet Air Oxidation of Phenol in a Trickle Bed Reactor
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Kinetics study on the phenol oxidation by catalytic wet air oxidation (CWAO) using CuO.NiO/Al2O3 as heterogeneous catalyst is presented. 4 g/l phenol solution of pH 7.3 was oxidized in a trickle bed reactor with gas flow rate of 80% stochiometric excess (S.E).. In order to verify the proposed kinetics, a series of CWAO experimental tests were done at two temperatures (140 and 160° C), oxygen partial pressures (9 and 12 bar), and weight hourly space velocity (WHSV) (1, 1.5, 2, 2.5, and 3 h-1). According to Power Law, the reaction orders are found to be approximately 1 and 0.5 with respect to phenol concentration and oxygen solubility, respectively. These values favorably compare with those cited in the literature for intrinsic kinetics,

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 01 2022
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
HISTORY AND MODERNITY OF POETRY AS : A Reference Of The Modern Poem In Iraq
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One of the most important intellectual issues, which receive attention is the issue of modernity, it has occupied the scholars of all time. However, modern poetry used to have special care in Iraq and in the Arab countries .. it is not strange that the concept of modernity is linked to history .. or having history as the most important dimension of its dimensions .. because Arab poetry is historical and it is moving into an area of ​​the past that is still active in terms of language and literary image .. When some poets found that changing and modernizing poetry became a necessity of evolution, and one of the fundamentals of modernization, the cultural impact did not respond to the desire of poets, and their impulse in modern poetry

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Publication Date
Thu Aug 24 2017
Journal Name
Clinical Case Reports
Primary hypogonadism, partial alopecia, and Müllerian hypoplasia: report of a fifth family and review
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Key Clinical Message<p>Primary hypogonadism combined with Müllerian hypoplasia and partial alopecia are common features of this syndrome, which was reported only in four earlier families from areas where consanguineous marriage is prevalent. An autosomal recessive pattern of inheritance was suggested earlier and is supported by this report.</p>
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Publication Date
Thu Jun 23 2022
Journal Name
American Scientific Research Journal For Engineering, Technology, And Sciences
A Review of TCP Congestion Control Using Artificial Intelligence in 4G and 5G Networks
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In recent years, the field of research around the congestion problem of 4G and 5G networks has grown, especially those based on artificial intelligence (AI). Although 4G with LTE is seen as a mature technology, there is a continuous improvement in the infrastructure that led to the emergence of 5G networks. As a result of the large services provided in industries, Internet of Things (IoT) applications and smart cities, which have a large amount of exchanged data, a large number of connected devices per area, and high data rates, have brought their own problems and challenges, especially the problem of congestion. In this context, artificial intelligence (AI) models can be considered as one of the main techniques that can be used to solve ne

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Publication Date
Tue Jul 11 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Domestic Violence and Extremism among the Young: A Field Study in the Madain Region
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Young people represent the power and cornerstone of societies and their superiority is linked to their well-being. Their empowerment is as essential as the heart to the body, if it is corrupt, then the whole body is corrupt, and vice versa. The exposure to extremism and pressure from their families leads to violent acts and crimes for obtaining money through unknown organized bodies. This will drive them to fail in their life in an attempt to fulfill their most basic needs, which they have been deprived of by their families, the government, and other institutions. Therefore, governments should provide job opportunities for young people and provide entertainment centers, sports clubs, and family education centers that raise awareness of s

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Requirements of investment in the marsh : a case study in the Marshlands of Maysan
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The search aims to find out the most important requirements for the success of marshes investment and maximize the expected returns of investment was marked by a problem find aquestion for availability requirements necessary for the success of marshes investment has a research community owners decision in the province Maysan the most important conclusions to the search is that the investment great importance in support of the economy and raising the cultural and social level, there is no investment successful but only with configure the investment environment appropriate economic, social, cultural, political, and security ways. the most important recommendations are working on the provision of the investment environment appropria

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 01 2009
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Simulation of Free Convection from an Inclined Heated Thin Plate in a Square Enclosure
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Simulation of free convection heat transfer in a square enclosure induced by heated thin plate is represented numerically. All  the enclosure walls have constant temperature lower than the plate’s temperature. The flow is assumed to be two-dimensional. The discretized equations were solved stream function, vorticity, and energy equations by finite difference method using explicit technique and Successive Over- Relaxation method. The study was performed for different values of Rayleigh number ranging from 103 to 105 for different angle position of heated thin plate(0°, 45°, 90°). Air was chosen as a working fluid (Pr = 0.71). Aspect ratio of center of plate to the parallel left wall A2

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