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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 30 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
A Survey on Arabic Text Classification Using Deep and Machine Learning Algorithms
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    Text categorization refers to the process of grouping text or documents into classes or categories according to their content. Text categorization process consists of three phases which are: preprocessing, feature extraction and classification. In comparison to the English language, just few studies have been done to categorize and classify the Arabic language. For a variety of applications, such as text classification and clustering, Arabic text representation is a difficult task because Arabic language is noted for its richness, diversity, and complicated morphology. This paper presents a comprehensive analysis and a comparison for researchers in the last five years based on the dataset, year, algorithms and the accuracy th

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 06 2022
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A corpus-based stylistic analysis of online suicide notes retrieved from Reddit
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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
To Shape a Silence While Breaking it: Toni Morrison’s the Bluest Eye
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Toni Morrison (1931-), the first African-American winner of Noble Prize in literature (1993) and the winner of the 1988 Pulitzer Prize for fiction, regards herself as the historian of African-American people. She does not think of her writings as literature but as a sacred book dedicated to explore the interior lives of blacks. She creates history by disregarding European standards and the white man's view of African- Americans. She adopts her people's point of view, invests their heritage, voices their pains and uses their vernacular. She even writes to a black audience. She establishes the black novel  by depicting the blackness of American literature. In choos

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 10 2019
Journal Name
The Astrophysical Journal
A Deeply Buried Narrow-line Seyfert 1 Nucleus Uncovered in Scattered Light
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Tue Jul 11 2023
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Tunneling induced swapping of orbital angular momentum in a quantum dot molecule
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Publication Date
Sun Feb 20 2022
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Papers In Physics
Electronic and optical properties of nickel-doped ceria: A computational modelling study
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Cerium oxide (CeO2), or ceria, has gained increasing interest owing to its excellent catalytic applications. Under the framework of density functional theory (DFT), this contribution demonstrates the eect that introducing the element nickel (Ni) into the ceria lattice has on its electronic, structural, and optical characteristics. Electronic density of states (DOSs) analysis shows that Ni integration leads to a shrinkage of Ce 4f states and improvement of Ni 3d states in the bottom of the conduction band. Furthermore, the calculated optical absorption spectra of an Ni-doped CeO2 system shifts towards longer visible light and infrared regions. Results indicate that Ni-doping a CeO2 system would result in a decrease of the band gap. Finally,

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Fri Jul 30 2021
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Turkish Online Journal Of Qualitative Inquiry (tojqi)
A Pragmatic Study of the Student-Teacher Relationship in the Dangerous Minds
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Publication Date
Tue May 31 2022
Journal Name
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A GENRE-BASED ANALYSIS OF POLITICAL SPEECHES IN THE UN GENERAL ASSEMBLY
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Publication Date
Sat Sep 30 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Topic Management in Selected Dementia Patients' Speeches: A Clinical Discourse Analysis Study
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Topic management is the awareness of how speakers deal with initiating, developing, changing, and ending a topic and how they fix the relationship when a misunderstanding occurs. It is such an important unit of conversation as it includes the transition from one strategy to the other to be accomplished in a systematic and orderly manner. These strategies are impaired in dementia patients thus lead to communication breakdown. This study aims at detecting the dementia patients' topic management strategies in selected speeches and answering the questions of which of these strategies are fully or partially detected in these speeches. The researchers use a qualitative method to examine the speeches of those patients and they adopt an eclectic

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 25 2023
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This review delves deep into the intricate relationship between urban planning and flood risk management, tracing its historical trajectory and the evolution of methodologies over time. Traditionally, urban centers prioritized defensive measures, like dikes and levees, with an emphasis on immediate solutions over long-term resilience. These practices, though effective in the short term, often overlooked broader environmental implications and the necessity for holistic planning. However, as urban areas burgeoned and climate change introduced new challenges, there has been a marked shift in approach. Modern urban planning now emphasizes integrated blue-green infrastructure, aiming to harmonize human habitation with water cycles. Resil

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