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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 12 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
Understanding the Experience of Hospital Pharmacists with the Effectiveness, Safety, Adverse Drug Reaction Reporting and Interchangeability of Biopharmaceutical Medicines
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The study objectives were to 1) explore the real-world experience of hospital pharmacists with the differences in effectiveness safety, and interchangeability between biosimilar medicines and their reference biological counterparts, 2) reveal pharmacist recommendations to enhance the safety of biopharmaceutical medicines in public hospitals.

The study has a mixed-method design where the core component was qualitative (interviews) and the supplemental component was quantitative (adverse drug reaction, ADR, reports). This qualitative component included semi-structured (mostly face-to-face) interviews involving hospital pharmacists from different hospitals with experience with biological or biosimilar medicines. The interviews were c

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Publication Date
Sat Jul 19 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Physical Education
Strength Variable Analysis With the Height of Body Mass Center In High Spike Position 4 In Volleyball League Players
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Publication Date
Sat Jul 19 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Localization of transforming growth factor-beta expression in the peri-implant tissues of dental implants coated with placental collagen
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Back ground : The transforming growth factor beta (TGFB) signaling pathway is involved in many cellular processes in both the adult organism and the developing embryo including cell growth, cell differentiation, apoptosis. The interaction between implant material and surrounding tissues is believed to play a fundamental role in implant success and illustrates different expression of growth factors by different cells that involved in the formation of peri-implant tissue. The aim of this study was to localize expression of TGF B by newly formed bone tissue around surface-conditioned implants with placental collagen at different time intervals: 3 ,7,14,28, and 56 days . Materials and Methods: Commercially pure Titanium (CPTi) implants coated w

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 03 2016
Journal Name
Int. J. Pharm. Sci. Rev. Res.
Impacts of simultaneous administration of omega-3 fatty acids with amoxicillin/clavulanic acid on albino rats' liver and bile
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Most drugs undergo some metabolism in the liver before excretion by the kidneys or bile. Thus, it is not surprising that liver injury may be provoked due to its exposure to various drugs and compounds. Drug-induced cholestatic liver injury may occur particularly under conditions of increased drug concentrations, genetic alterations in expression of enzymes or transporters. Additionally, the drug-induced cholestasis can be caused by direct toxic effects of drugs or their metabolites on different hepatic cell types or through an immune-mediated process. Amoxicillin/ clavulanic acid, an antibiotic that is therapeutically utilized for the treatment of a number of bacterial infections. Omega-3 fatty acids are unsaturated fatty acids that have ro

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 27 2019
Journal Name
Asian Journal Of Chemistry
Estimation of Excess Properties of Binary Liquids Systems of Tetrahydrofurfuryl Alcohol with Short-Chain Carboxylic Acids at 298.15 K
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At the temperature 298.15 K, some physical properties such as: refractive indices (nD), viscosities (η) and densities (ρ) were studied in four liquid-liquid mixtures: carboxylic acids (HCOOH, CH3COOH, CH3CH2COOH and CH3CH2CH2COOH) with tetrahydrofurfuryl alcohol (THFA) with the identified configuration set. These empirical data were utilized to estimate the excess molar volumes (Vm E), refractive index perversions (ΔR), viscosity deviations (ηE) and excess molar Gibbs free energy (ΔG*E). Values of Vm E, ηE , ΔG*E and ΔR were plotted versus mole fraction of tetrahydrofurfuryl alcohol. In all cases, the values of Vm E, ηE , ΔG*E and ΔR that obtained in this study were found to be negative at 298.15 K. The excess parameters

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2023
Journal Name
The Egyptian Journal Of Hospital Medicine
Assessment of Plasma Jet Therapy of Tooth Root Canal Infected with Escherichia Coli and Enterococcus Faecalis Biofilm In Vitro
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Background: Common and persistent isolate ina the teeth following failed therapy of the root canal is the gram-positive facultative bacterium Enterococcus faecalis and Escherichia coli, which develop biofilm through a complicated process that results in the formation of a biofilm. Enterococcus faecalis and Escherichia coli are significant factors that cause chronic periradicular lesions after root canal therapy. Aim: This study aimed to treat the root canal tooth infected with Escherichia coli and Enterococcus faecalis Methods: In this study biofilm formation was done for Escherichia coli in growth phase cultured in a brain heart broth Enterococcus faecalis and Escherichia coli cultured in Luria-Bertani (LB) infusion medium for 18 hrs. Then

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 07 2014
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Study of Naidid worms community associated with two species of aquatic plants in River Tigris inside Baghdad City / Iraq
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The present study is concern with the interaction between the naidid worms diversity and the species of aquatic plant within which the worms found . For this purpose, two species of aquatic plant were used, Ceratophyllum demersum and Eichhornia crassipes. 12 samples of aquatic plants were collected , as one sample monthly for a period from September 2012 to September 2013 from different site on Tigris river within Baghdad City. From C. demersum, 1428 individuals, were sorted during the study period, related to 17 species. 12 species of subfamily Naidinae which are Chaetogaster limnaei , C. diastrophus , Ophidonais serpentine , Dero ( Dero) digitata. , D.(D.) evelinae , Nais pseudobtosa , N.simplex, N.stolci , N.Paradalis , N.elingiu

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 06 2010
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Effect of Chromium on Growth of green ALGA SCENEDESMUS QUADR ICAUDA (TURP.) DE BERB. With increase of nitrogen concentration
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The study was conducted to identify the toxicity of chromium on scenedesmus quadricauda algae alone and in the presence of nutrient metal (Nitrogen). Different concentrations of chromium (0.5, 1.5 , 2.5, 3.5 , 4.5mg/L) were used and the presence nitrogen is (5 ,10 ,50 ,100mg/L) on cultur media(chu-10) with used for cultivation of the algae in controlled conditions(25oC , light intensity 380 –?E/m2 /s. The results showed increasing in the toxicity of the metal when is alone , excess of concentrations an time of exposure. The growth rate decreased from 0.44 to 0.06 cell/ hour after 12 day of the biging of the experiment and of concentrate 4.5 mg/L of chromium. The intermediate active concentrations of the chromium(EC50) was increase

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2018
Journal Name
Front Public Health
Association of Cytochrome CYP1A1 Gene Polymorphisms and Tobacco Smoking with the Risk of Breast Cancer in Women from Iraq
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Background: CYP1A1 gene polymorphisms and tobacco smoking are among several risk factors for various types of cancers, but their influence on breast cancer remains controversial. We analyzed the possible association of CYP1A1 gene polymorphisms and tobacco smoking-related breast cancer in women from Iraq. Materials and methods: In this case-control study, gene polymorphism of CYP1A1 gene (CYP1A1m1, T6235C and CYP1A1m2, A4889G) of 199 histologically verified breast cancer patients' and 160 cancer-free control women's specimens were performed by using PCR-based restriction fragment length polymorphism. Results: Three genotype frequencies (TT, TC, and CC) of CYP1A1m1T/C appeared in 16.1, 29.6, and 54.3% of women with breast cancer, respectiv

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 12 2019
Journal Name
Hematology Reports
Studying Anemia of Chronic Disease and Iron Deficiency in Patients with Rheumatoid Arthritis by Iron Status and Circulating Hepcidin
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Anemia of chronic disease (ACD) and iron deficiency anemia (IDA) are the two most important types of anemia in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Functional iron deficiency in ACD can be attributed to overexpression of the main iron regulatory hormone hepcidin leading to diversion of iron from the circulation into storage sites resulting in iron-restricted erythropoiesis. The aim is to investigate the role of circulating hepcidin and to uncover the frequency of IDA in RA. The study included 51 patients with RA. Complete blood counts, serum iron, total iron binding capacity, ferritin, and hepcidin- 25 were assessed. ACD was found in 37.3% of patients, IDA in 11.8%, and combined (ACD/IDA) in 17.6%. Serum hepcidin was higher in ACD than in con

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