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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Fri May 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Physics: Conference Series
A CERTAIN SUBCLASS OF MULTIVALENT HARMONIC FUNCTIONS DEFINED BY RUSCHEWEYH DERIVATIVES
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Abstract<p>We introduce a new class of harmonici multivalent functions define by generalized Rucheweyh derivative operator. We also obtain several interesting propertiesi such as sharp coefficienit estimates, distortioni bound, extreme points, Hadamardi product and other several results. Derivative; extreme points.</p>
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Publication Date
Thu Jan 10 2019
Journal Name
Association Of Arab Universities Journal Of Engineering
Improvement of Earth Canals Constructed on a Gypseous Soil By Cement
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Tue Jun 27 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Kufa For Chemical Sciences
Nanogold-Bound Copper Complexes and Their Various Applications: A Review Article
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The term "nano gold," also known as "gold nanoparticles," is commonly used. These particles are extremely small, with a diameter of less than 100 nm, which is only a fraction of the width of a human hair. Due to their tiny size, nano gold particles are often found in a colloidal solution, where they are suspended in a liquid stabilizer. This colloidal gold is essentially another name for nano gold. The main method for producing gold nanoparticles in a colloidal solution is the citrate synthesis technique, which involves combining different solutions to precipitate the gold nanoparticles. In biological systems, copper complexes play a significant role at the active sites of many metalloproteins. These complexes have potential applications in

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 19 2024
Journal Name
Ieee Explorer
A Novel Flow Priority and Continuity Control Mechanism in SDN Network
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In recent days, the escalating need to seamlessly transfer data traffic without discontinuities across the Internet network has exerted immense pressure on the capacity of these networks. Consequently, this surge in demand has resulted in the disruption of traffic flow continuity. Despite the emergence of intelligent networking technologies such as software-defined networking, network cloudification, and network function virtualization, they still need to improve their performance. Our proposal provides a novel solution to tackle traffic flow continuity by controlling the selected packet header bits (Differentiated Services Code Point (DSCP)) that govern the traffic flow priority. By setting the DSCP bits, we can determine the appropriate p

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Publication Date
Sat Mar 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
The Impact of Holy Qur’an on Pushkin’s Poetry A Comparative Study
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Praise be to Allah , the Lord of Heavens , Who revealed His Scripture in plain Arabic, and prayers and peace be upon the Master of all creatures and the chosen one , Muhammad (PBUH).Pushkin was known as a poet in Russia, the sun of its poetry that set, the father of the Russian literature and the founder of its literary language. When he published his poems, trying to express his inner poetic feelings and creative visions, he presented them with creativity and special touch. The reason behind the selection of Pushkin as the subject of this study is that he was affected by Islam and Arabs. For the purpose of this study, the dissertation has been divided into introduction and three chapters; each chapter includes two topics. In the introdu

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 30 2007
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
A Study in to the Dynamic Behavior of Packed Distillation Column
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The study of the dynamic behavior of packed distillation column was studied by frequency response analysis using Matlab program. A packed distillation column (80 mm diameter) (2000 mm height) filled with glass packing (Raschig Rings 10mm), packing height (1500 mm) has been modified for separation of methanol-water mixture (60 vol%). The column dynamic behavior was studied experimentally under different step changes in, feed rate (±30%), reflux rate (±22%), and reboiler heat duty (±150%), the top and bottom concentration of methanol were measured. A frequency response analysis for the above step response was carried out using Bode diagram, the log modulus and the phase angle were  used to analyze the process model. A Matlab progra

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Publication Date
Tue Nov 01 2022
Journal Name
Alustath
Metrical Phonology in Classical English and Arabic Poetry: A Contrastive Study
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One of the prominent goals of Metrical Phonology Theory is providing stress of poetry on the syllable-, the foot-, and the phonological word- levels. Analysing poetry is one of the most prominent and controversial issues for the involved number and types of syllables, feet, and meters are stable in poetry compared to other literary texts. The prosodic seeds of the theory have been planted by Firth (1948) in English, while in Arabic يديهارفلا in the second half of the eighth century (A.D.) has done so. Investigating the metrical structure of poetry has been conducted in various languages, whereas scrutinising the metrical structure of English and Arabic poetry has received little attention. This study aims at capturing the

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 01 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
Picaresque Elements in Selected English and Iraqi Novels: A Comparative Approach
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The paper attempts to find out the elements of picaresque novel in selected English and Iraqi novels. It studies these elements in Henry Fielding’s Joseph Andrews and Adil Abduljabbar’s Arzal Hamad Al-Salim. The paper is divided into four sections. The first is an introduction to the picaresque novel. It gives a definition, a historical background, and the elements of the genre. The second section studies Fielding’s novel focusing on the elements of this type of novel and how it affects the story itself. The paper follows the novel from the beginning to the end showing these elements. The third is dedicated to Abduljabbar’s novel and how the elements of picaresque genre appear in the novel and play an important role in its developm

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 30 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Physical Identity in the Marshes Chabaish District as a Case Study
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The marshes form large areas in southern Iraq, which are large water bodies, covered by reeds and papyrus plants. The marshes are characterized by distinctive physical elements, which have given them a unique and unique identity that can be clearly distinguished by the physical pattern. The physical environment derives its identity through a group Of inputs that interact with each other and represent both cultural and social inputs of the most important inputs that affect the formation of identity, and in the physical environment of the Marshlands many of the symbols that are associated with the collective memory of individuals, these symbols have value in the community Thus, the preservation of these symbols and inherited from one gener

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 13 2005
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Laser
Warts Treatment by 810 nm Diode Laser Irradiation: A New Approach
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The present work was done in an attempt to build systematic procedures for treating warts by 810 nm diode laser regarding dose parameters, application parameters and laser safety. The study was done in Al- Kindy Teaching Hospital in Baghdad, Iraq during the period from 1st October 2003 till 1st April 2004. Fifteen patients completed the treatment and they were followed for the period of 3 months. Recalcitrant and extensive warts were selected for the study. Patients were randomly divided into 3 groups to be treated by different laser powers 9, 12 and 15 W, power density of 286 W/cm2, 381W/cm2, 477 W/cm2 pulse duration of 0.2 s, interval of 0.2 s and repeated pulses were used. The mode of application was either circular or radial. Pain oc

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