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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 30 2022
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
The Holy Totem in Qur’an, a study in the light of sociolinguistics
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The sacred totem is one of the social phenomena that occupied the ideas of researchers, and took up a wide area of ​​their research, and it is one of those phenomena that emerged from one of the translations of the Tabu; Who took a psychological and anthropological analysis   Because it is one of the social practices, and the main focus of it is the human group and its source is religion. Therefore, this research came with demands, the first of which is to give a semantic concept of the Tommy sanctuary, and then the analytical aspect by standing on the sacred things in the Qur’anic text that God Almighty sanctified, and the third requirement is to examine what people have sanctified, as an analysis of the verses that have

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 20 2019
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Illegal migration and the European Union " a perusal of securing the phenomenon"
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Abstract This study seeks to deal academically with how the EU treats clandestine immigration, through adopting a purley security approach, based on the European understanding of security threats posed to the security of communities and States in EU at all levels. So they agreed upon criminalizing this threat within the bloc while using repressive tools and steps to limit illegal immigrants flow to European territories. Accordingly, the EU gave the phenomen a security character. So it takes it from low politics level , that of employment and economic field to that of high politics, as a new security problem lying within a new security language embraced by ruling European elites, in other words EU touched on this issue as a speech act emp

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 09 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Testing and Commissioning of a Low-Speed Wind Tunnel (LSWT) Test Section
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The calibration of a low-speed wind tunnel (LSWT) test section had been made in the present work. The tunnel was designed and constructed at the Aerodynamics Lab. in the Mechanical Engineering Department/University of Baghdad. The test section design speed is 70 m/s. Frictional loses and uniformity of the flow inside the test section had been tested and calibrated based on the British standards for flow inside ducts and conduits. Pitot-static tube, boundary layer Pitot tube were the main instruments which were used in the present work to measure the flow characteristics with emphasize on the velocity uniformity and boundary layer growth along the walls of the test section. It is found that the maximum calibrated velocity for empty test s

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 30 2014
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
The Prevalence of Autoimmune Thyroiditis in A sample of Infertile Iraqi Women
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In the present study, the aim was made to identify the relationship between thyroid autoimmunity (TAI) and female infertility. The study was performed on 30 infertile women and 22 age-matched healthy fertile control age (33 ± 5 years). Overall, serum prolactin (PRL), thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH) assay is the key test for the diagnosis and management of hypo and hyperthyroidism. Anti-TPO Ab and anti-TG Ab were measured. The mean ± SE of serum PRL (31.080 ± 3.06) ng/ml was significantly (P<0.05) higher in infertile group compared with control (16.191±1.36) ng/ml. Serum TSH was significantly (P<0.05) higher in infertile group (5.689 ± 1.12) µIU/ml compared to control group (2.282 ± 0.18) µIU/ml. The prevalence of positive

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 30 2023
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
Education of Thinking as a Necessity in Education Inst. Asmaa Hasan Shalash
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The concept of education is not actually restricted to children or school students, but rather  every person   should be educated and followed up if he  is intended to grow and prove, with effort and time allocation  as to fulfill that goal.  Thus , the current paper aims to a thinking education and to educate that thinking in teacher  and it is not new to deal with the personal characteristics of teacher  in the different  scientific , and educational researches . But ,these research did not address the necessity of acquiring the skill of thinking, especially as it affects teacher's presentation of the content of the curriculum or even content outside the curriculum, and therefore, there is n

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
A Feminist Discourse Analysis of Writer's Gender Biases about Violence Against Women
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    The present study is concerned with the writer's ideologies towards violence against women. The study focuses on analyzing violence against women in English novel to see the extent the writers are being affected and influenced by their genders. It also focuses on showing to what extent the writer's ideologies are reflected in their works. Gender influences social groups ideologies; therefore, when a writer discusses an issue that concerns the other gender, they will be either subjective or objective depending on the degree of influence, i.e., gender has influenced their thoughts as well as behaviors. A single fact may be presented differently by different writers depending on the range of a

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 31 2020
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
(Novelist character in the Iraqi press criticism – Fadhil Thamir as a model))
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Novel has recently  received the attention of readers and writers greatly, because of the role they play, and this indicates an important rule, which is whenever there is an art or creativity, there must be a respective criticism, and this criticism is certainly not less important than the author. So there are critics who have a prestigious literary position in the follow-up story development, and trying to describe the transformation of its elements. One of these critics is professor Fadhel Thamer, and who wants to approach one of the elements of the novel exploring, must stop on the visions of this critic about it , and that’s why we take the (character) element following the most important opinions of this critic about

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 15 2020
Journal Name
Al-academy
Dramatic Construction in Quranic Text Surah Taha – A model: جبار خماط حسن
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There are many varied studies that dealt with the dramatic construction, especially books and studies that addressed drama in its construction and the method of writing it, that no textbook or a general cultural content is void of tackling the dramatic text in its construction and how the dramatic action develops in it. Therefore, a question occurs to the mind about the feasibility of dealing with the dramatic construction in this time, where many contemporary studies of dramatology and its relation and the contemporary critical directions are accumulating. This question many have two realistic aspects, yet the novelty and originality that this research shows lie in addressing a refined linguistic text in its style and connotations, such

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Sensors
Sequential Monte Carlo Localization Methods in Mobile Wireless Sensor Networks: A Review
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The advancement of digital technology has increased the deployment of wireless sensor networks (WSNs) in our daily life. However, locating sensor nodes is a challenging task in WSNs. Sensing data without an accurate location is worthless, especially in critical applications. The pioneering technique in range-free localization schemes is a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method, which utilizes network connectivity to estimate sensor location without additional hardware. This study presents a comprehensive survey of state-of-the-art SMC localization schemes. We present the schemes as a thematic taxonomy of localization operation in SMC. Moreover, the critical characteristics of each existing scheme are analyzed to identify its advantages

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 09 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
Thymoquinone Attenuates Immune Mediated Liver Injury Induced by Concanavalin A in Mice
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Autoimmune hepatitis is an inflammatory disease and its incidence has been increasing. The features of hepatitis are the release of inflammatory cytokines, the elevation of AST and ALT, and hepatocyte apoptosis and necrosis. Concanavalin A considered as essential model represents the acute immune-mediated liver damage in rodents. Thymoquinone is well known herbal compound that exert hepatoprotective, anti-inflammatory, and antioxidant activity. In this study, we focus on the immunoregulatory and liver protective effect of thymoquinone in a mouse model of concanavalin A-induced liver injury.

Twenty-four male mice were randomly divided into four groups each containing six animals: Negative control group, concanavalin A model group,

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