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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 03 2021
Journal Name
Tropical Journal Of Natural Product Research
Hematological and Histopathological Changes in the Spleen of Male Albino Rats (Rattus norvegicus) Treated with Meloxicam
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Publication Date
Fri Nov 03 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
Synergistic Effects of 2-Deoxy-D-Glucose and Cinnamic Acid with Erlotinib on NSCLC Cell Line
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Background: In spite of all efforts, Non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is a fatal solid tumor with a poor prognosis as of its high metastasis and resistance to present treatments. Tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKI) such as erlotinib are efficient in treating NSCLC but the emergence of chemoresistance and adverse effects substantially limits their single use. Objective: in this study, the combination treatments of either 2-deoxy-D-glucose (2DG) or cinnamic acid (CINN) with erlotinib (ERL) were tested for their possible synergistic effect on the proliferation and migration capacity of NSCLC cells. Methods: In this study, NSCLC model cell line A549 was used to investigate the effects of single compounds and their combination on cell gro

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Publication Date
Fri Oct 20 2023
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Antioxidant, Antimicrobial and Spectroscopic Discussion of Guanine Azo Ligand with Cu(II) and Ag (I) Complexes
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In this paper, we have provided a very thorough analysis of a new novel chelate metal ion complex of [Cu(II),Ag(I)] prepared via the interaction with the ligand{ 2-amino-8-((4-chloro-3-hydroxyphenyl) diazenyl)azo]guanine} [LAAG], which is synthesized by diazo coupling of the 5-amino-2-chlorophenol with amino acid guanine. The ligand and its complexes are identified by a variety of techniques, like [HNMR, FTIR, and Uv-vis] spectral, thermal analysis (TGA), and element analyses (CHN). The molar ratio was achieved so that the Cu(II) complex has (1:2) (M:L) with octahedral geometry; however, the Ag(I) complex has (1:1) (M:L) with tetrahedral geometry, and the ligand acts as neutral N,N-bidentate; as well as the ligand (LAAG) and its complexe

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 01 2020
Journal Name
Ceramics International
High-performance (K,Na)NbO3-based binary lead-free piezoelectric ceramics modified with acceptor metal oxide
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Publication Date
Wed Apr 30 2025
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
The Influence of Fear on the Dynamics of Harvested Prey-Predator Model with Intra-Specific Competition
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The influence of fear on the dynamics of harvested prey-predator model with intra-specific competition is suggested and studied, where the fear effect from the predation causes decreases of growth rate of prey.  We suppose that the predator attacks the prey under the Holling type IV functional response. he existence of the solution is investigated and the bounded-ness of the solution is studied too. In addition, the dynamical behavior of the system is established locally and globally. Furthermore, the persistence conditions are investigated. Finally, numerical analysis of the system is carried out.

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 01 2008
Journal Name
Saudi Medical Journal
Topical therapy of acne vulgaris using 2% tea lotion in comparison with 5% zinc sulphate solution.
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KE Sharquie, AA Noaimi, MM Al-Salih, Saudi Medical Journal, 2008 - Cited by 56

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Publication Date
Sat Nov 03 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Effectiveness of Short Wave Diathermy and Therapeutic Ultrasound on The Management of Patients With Knee Osteoarthritis
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Objective : The present study is aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of short wave diathermy and
ultrasound therapy for the management of patients with knee osteoarthritis
Methodology : all patients who referred to the Medical Rehabilitation Unit in Baghdad Teaching
Hospital and Sadr A!-Qanat Center. The period of the study was from October 2004 to April 2005, total
number of patients was 24 (9 male and 15 female). Age range of patients was 42-70 years. Complete
clinical and radiological examinations were achieved on all patients and referred to the Medical
Rehabilitation Unit for physiotherapy. Short wave diathermy and ultrasound therapy were applied on
all patients.
Results : Demographic distribution revealed th

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Publication Date
Wed Apr 01 2020
Journal Name
Indian Journal Of Forensic Medicine & Toxicology
Hormonal and mineral imbalance effect on bone resorption in predialysis iraqi patients with chronic kidney disease
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Publication Date
Fri Jun 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Compensation of the Nonlinear Power Amplifier by Using SCPWL Predistorter with Genetic Algorithm in OFDM technique
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The High Power Amplifiers (HPAs), which are used in wireless communication, are distinctly characterized by nonlinear properties. The linearity of the HPA can be accomplished by retreating an HPA to put it in a linear region on account of power performance loss. Meanwhile the Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplex signal is very rough. Therefore, it will be required a large undo to the linear action area that leads to a vital loss in power efficiency. Thereby, back-off is not a positive solution. A Simplicial Canonical Piecewise-Linear (SCPWL) model based digital predistorters are widely employed to compensating the nonlinear distortion that introduced by a HPA component in OFDM technology. In this paper, the genetic al

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 29 2016
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Study the Optical Properties of Polymer Poly Vinyl Alcohol doped with CuO and Fe2Cl3 Thin films
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  In this research we prepared thin films from pure polymer  (polyvinyl alcohol PVA )and doped with CuO with concentration 8% ,and Fe2Cl3 at different concentrations (1,5,8)%.This films were prepared by casting method and placed in Britidish (4cm diameter )with thickness(200±5)μm.Through the investigation of(X-ray )diffraction it is found all that the samples have polycrystalline structure .Also we measurement the optical properties from this films such as absorption ,transmittion spectra ,absorption coefficient ,energy gap ,extinction coefficient ,refraction index ,finesse coefficient ,the dielectric constant with two parts the real and the imaginary and the optical conductivity .  
 

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