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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Sun Nov 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Oral And Maxillofacial Surgery
A Clinicopathologic Review of 21 Cases of Head and Neck Primary Tuberculosis
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Purpose A diagnosis of tuberculosis (TB) of the head and neck has been a dilemma for clinicians, because the clinical and pathologic features tend to mimic different pathologies. Our study aimed to identify the demographic, clinical, and pathologic features of head and neck TB to help healthcare providers in the early detection of the disease. Materials and Methods We performed a retrospective analysis using the medical archives at the pathology laboratory. Twenty-one patients with a clinical and pathologic diagnosis of head and neck TB were identified from 2010 to 2019. Results The age distribution was broad, with 28.5% of the patients younger than 15 years old. Seven patients had oral TB, with the most common sites affected the labial ves

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 14 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Industrial Research
Biofuel Production and Its Impact on Global Food Security: A Review Article
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The aim of this study is to shed light on the importance of biofuels as an alternative to conventional energy, in addition to the importance of preserving agricultural crops, which are the main source of this fuel, to maintain food security, especially in developing countries. The increase in global oil prices, in addition to the fear of global warming, are among the main factors that draw the world’s attention to searching for alternative sources of traditional energy, which are sustainable on the one hand, and on the other hand reduce carbon emissions. Therefore, the volume of global investment in renewable energy in general, and in liquid biofuels and biomass in particular, has increased. Global fears emerged that the excessive

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Publication Date
Mon Aug 01 2022
Journal Name
International Journal Of Electrical And Computer Engineering (ijece)
A survey of deepfakes in terms of deep learning and multimedia forensics
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Artificial intelligence techniques are reaching us in several forms, some of which are useful but can be exploited in a way that harms us. One of these forms is called deepfakes. Deepfakes is used to completely modify video (or image) content to display something that was not in it originally. The danger of deepfake technology impact on society through the loss of confidence in everything is published. Therefore, in this paper, we focus on deepfakedetection technology from the view of two concepts which are deep learning and forensic tools. The purpose of this survey is to give the reader a deeper overview of i) the environment of deepfake creation and detection, ii) how deep learning and forensic tools contributed to the detection

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 30 2019
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
The Holy Qur’an Approach to Evidence (Signs of branding as a template)
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The aim of the current research is to study a topic from the Qur’anic topics, few have researched it and realized its content, so people knew it in one name in the Qur’an in another name, and due to the ancientity of the topic and its contemporaneity, I wanted to write about it. The research has an introduction, three demands, and a conclusion with the most important results of the research:
As for the introduction: It was to indicate the importance of the topic and an optional reason for it.
As for the first requirement: it included the definition of reasoning, its divisions, and its characteristics.
As for the second requirement, it was to indicate the meaning, types, and methods of labeling it.
As for the third require

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Publication Date
Thu May 30 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
A Review Study on Forgery and Tamper Detection Techniques in Digital Images
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Digital tampering identification, which detects picture modification, is a significant area of image analysis studies. This area has grown with time with exceptional precision employing machine learning and deep learning-based strategies during the last five years. Synthesis and reinforcement-based learning techniques must now evolve to keep with the research. However, before doing any experimentation, a scientist must first comprehend the current state of the art in that domain. Diverse paths, associated outcomes, and analysis lay the groundwork for successful experimentation and superior results. Before starting with experiments, universal image forensics approaches must be thoroughly researched. As a result, this review of variou

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 03 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Speech Acts Through Ages - A Comprative Study between Traditional and Modren Approches
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This study has been developed axes of the search, including: Search (deliberative) language and idiomatically, and Description Language (b social phenomenon), and the definition of the theory of (acts of speech), and discussed the problem of the conflict between tradition and innovation, as defined objectively have a target aimed at reviving the deliberative thought when Arab scholars , and the balance between the actual done Arab and Western rhetoric, but Meet in intellectual necessity, a sober reading that preserve the Arab language prestige, and its position in the light of the growing tongue Sciences, as long as we have inherited minds unique, and heritage huge able to consolidate the Arab theory lingual in linguistics.

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 18 2018
Journal Name
International Journal Of Research In Social Sciences And Humanities
A Linguistic study of Presupposition in Rattigan’s play ‘while the sun shines’
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As a kind of linguistic study, the study of presupposition in drama is one of captivating topic to explore, because of the capability of this topic to make people perceive the presupposition differently. Presupposition is one of the most important concepts in linguistics. It refers to the implicit inferences made in communication between people. These inferences are necessary to understand the utterances correctly. The research particularly endeavors to focus on the linguistic constructions that activate presupposition.

Publication Date
Tue Dec 19 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Ethnic And Cultural Studies
Request Constructions in Classical Arabic versus Modern Arabic: A Corpus-based Study
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The present study aims to investigate the various request constructions used in Classical Arabic and Modern Arabic language by identifying the differences in their usage in these two different genres. Also, the study attempts to trace the cases of felicitous and infelicitous requests in the Arabic language. Methodologically, the current study employs a web-based corpus tool (Sketch Engine) to analyze different corpora: the first one is Classical Arabic, represented by King Saud University Corpus of Classical Arabic, while the second is The Arabic Web Corpus “arTenTen” representing Modern Arabic. To do so, the study relies on felicity conditions to qualitatively interpret the quantitative data, i.e., following a mixed mode method

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 17 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Testing and Commissioning of a Low-Speed Wind Tunnel (LSWT) Test Section
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The calibration of a low-speed wind tunnel (LSWT) test section had been made in the present work. The tunnel was designed and constructed at the Aerodynamics Lab. in the Mechanical Engineering Department/University of Baghdad. The test section design speed is 70 m/s. Frictional loses and uniformity of the flow inside the test section had been tested and calibrated based on the British standards for flow inside ducts and conduits. Pitot-static tube, boundary layer Pitot tube were the main instruments which were used in the present work to measure the flow characteristics with emphasize on the velocity uniformity and boundary layer growth along the walls of the test section. It is found that the maximum calibrated velocity for empty test sect

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 02 2023
Journal Name
International Journal Of Nonlinear Analysis And Applications
Diagnostic COVID-19 based on chest imaging of COVID-19: A survey
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