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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 14 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Social Skills and its Relationship with Self-Regulation of Gifted Students According to the academic Stage and Gender
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This study aimed at investigating the level of social skills and its relationship with self-regulation among gifted students according to the academic stage and gender. The sample consisted of (417) male and female students at King Abdullah II School for Excellence in Salt, Jordan. Two instruments were used to collect the data; A scale of social skills and a scale of self-regulation. The results revealed that the level of social skills was high among gifted students. There were statistically significant differences in the social skills among gifted students according to their academic stage in favor of the secondary stage and according to their gender in favor of female students. There were statistically signific

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 18 2019
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
The Continuous Classical Boundary Optimal Control of Couple Nonlinear Hyperbolic Boundary Value Problem with Equality and Inequality Constraints
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The paper is concerned with the state and proof of the existence theorem of a unique solution (state vector) of couple nonlinear hyperbolic equations (CNLHEQS) via the Galerkin method (GM) with the Aubin theorem. When the continuous classical boundary control vector (CCBCV) is known, the theorem of existence a CCBOCV with equality and inequality state vector constraints (EIESVC) is stated and proved, the existence theorem of a unique solution of the adjoint couple equations (ADCEQS) associated with the state equations is studied. The Frcéhet derivative derivation of the "Hamiltonian" is obtained. Finally the necessary theorem (necessary conditions "NCs") and the sufficient theorem (sufficient conditions" SCs") for optimality of the stat

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Audit bank credit risk in accordance with international auditing standards: Applied research at Rafidain Bank, Public Administration - Baghdad
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This research dealt with the subject of auditing bank credit risks in accordance with international auditing standards and aims to develop procedures and design a credit risk audit program in accordance with international auditing standards and demonstrate their impact on the truth, truthfulness and fairness of financial statements and on their overall performance and continuity in the banking sector Its importance lies in relying on international auditing standards to assess and measure bank credit risk and its impact on the financial situation as well as the ability to predict financial failure. A set of conclusions have been reached, the most important of which is that the bank faces difficulties in measuring credit risk in accordance

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 30 2023
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Investigating the Effect of Genetic Polymorphisms of Deiodinase Type 2 on Levothyroxine Dose Requirements in Patients with Hypothyroidism
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Background: Hypothyroidism is the most abundant thyroid disorder worldwide. For decades, levothyroxine was the main effective pharmacological treatment for hypothyroidism. A variety of factors can influence levothyroxine dose, such as genetic variations. Studying the impact of genetic polymorphisms on the administration of medications was risen remarkably. Different genetic variations were investigated that might affect levothyroxine dose requirements, especially the deiodinase enzymes.  Deiodinase type 2 genetic polymorphisms’ impact on levothyroxine dose was studied in different populations. Objective: To examine the association of the two single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)s of deiodinase type 2 (rs225013 and rs225014) and le

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Publication Date
Sat Jul 19 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Oro-facial manifestations, oxidative stress marker and antioxidant in serum and saliva of patients with Beta thalassemia major
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Background: Beta thalassemia is a typically autosomal recessive form of severe anemia which is caused by an imbalance of two types of protein (alpha and beta) subunits of hemoglobin. Oxidative stress imbalance is the equilibrium between pro-oxidant\antioxidant statuses in cellular system, which results in damaging the cells. Antioxidant is a chemical that delays the start or slows the rate of lipid oxidation reaction and it play a very important role in the body defense system against reactive oxygen species. The aims of this study were to recorded the oro-facial manifestations in beta thalassemic patients and assess the oxidative stress marker malondialdehyde in serum and salivs and their role in the pathogenesis of beta thalassemia and ev

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Publication Date
Sat Jul 19 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Estimation of the linear dimensional changes of autoclave cured acrylic resin with multiple palatal depths and investment materials
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Background: Dimensional changes of acrylic denture bases after polymerization results in need for further adjustments or even ends with technical failure of the finished dentures. The purpose of this study was to estimate the linear dimensional changes for different palatal depths when using multiple investment materials and polymerization techniques. Materials and methods: Ninety upper complete denture bases were constructed for this study. They were divided into two main groups according to the polymerization methods: conventional water bath and experimental autoclave (short and long cycles). Each main group was further subdivided into three subgroups according to the palatal depth (shallow, medium and deep). Furthermore, for each palatal

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Publication Date
Sat Jul 19 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Physical Education
Body Image and Its Relationship With Self – Confidence In Female College of Physical Education and Sport Sciences Students
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Publication Date
Mon Jan 02 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The impact of teaching with analogies in collection of chemistry students grade average and their attitudes towards article
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this research aims to identify the impact of teaching with ana logies in collection of chemistry students grade average.And direction in order to verify to the zero hypothesis has been formulated and validated,The researcher conducted experiment lasted a full semester as experimental design was chosen (exactly)two equal one pilot and another officer.The research community has been  selected one of intentional Middle School of the Education Directorate in B aghdad Karkh second either search sample consisted of (68) students from second grade average (34 ) Students for each group randomly selected research groups was equal to the following variables (lifetime months,parent of first grade chemistry degrees average test informat

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Publication Date
Mon Apr 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Violence Efficacy of Parents in Consolidating the Positive Values and Its Relation with Socialization among Intermediated School Students
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The research aims to identify the effectiveness of violence by parents in the consolidation of positive values among students. Additionally, the research aims to identify the differences in violence levels among students regarding their gender (males & females). The study was limited to the intermediate school students in Baghdad city / Karkh2 for the academic year 2017-2018. The results showed that males are more violent than females do and that discrimination led to experience violence more than other methods. The researcher recommends the need to create a positive atmosphere within the school context. For future studies, the researcher suggests conducting a study to identify the violence and its relation to some personal character

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 15 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Efficacy of arthrocentesis with injection of hyaluronic acid in the treatment of inflammatory-degenerative disease of temporomandibular joint
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Background:Temporomandibular joint (TMJ) problems refer to a group of heterogeneous pain and dysfunction conditions involving the mastication, reducing life quality of the patients. Arthrocentesis is a simple and less invasive surgical method for the treatment of inflammatory-degenerative disease than other conservative procedures and better than arthroscope. This clinical study aimed at evaluating the benefit of arthrocentesis with injection of hyaluronic acid in the management of inflammatory-degenerative disease of the TMJ. Material and methods: Eighty consecutive patients were enrolled in this study with pain symptoms of TMJ, insufficient masticatory efficiency during function and limitation of mouth opening; they were assessed with

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