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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 03 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Logical thinking and its relation with problem Solving among female instructors in the university
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problems with its unobvious effect on scientific creativity and information. Problem solving is one of main goals of researchers because it develops their right logical thinking methods. The present study aims at measuring logical thinking among female it structures in the university mea swing problem solving among them ,identifying statically differences significance in logical thinking among female instructors in the university according to (Specialization Variable), identifying differences significance in problem Solving among female instructions in the university according to ( Specialization Variable) and identifying the Correlation between logical thinking and problem solving among female instructors in the university. The sample c

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2019
Journal Name
Diabetes & Metabolic Syndrome: Clinical Research & Reviews
Nephrotic range proteinuria; does it predict lung involvement in patients with type 2 diabetes
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Publication Date
Fri Dec 03 2021
Journal Name
Sys Rev Pharm
Evaluation Of Histological Changes In Kidney Of Male Albino Rats Treated With Silver Nanoparticles
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Publication Date
Sun Dec 04 2016
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Biochemical Study on Anti Thyroid Peroxidase in Type 2 Diabetic patients with thyroid disorders
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Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is the most frequent endocrinal disease commonly associated with thyroid disorders .The study is conducted at the Specialized Center for Endocrinology and Diabetes in Baghdad ,during December 2014 up to October 2015.This study was done to investigate the prevalence of anti- thyroid peroxidase (Anti-TPO) antibody in patients suffered from type 2 diabetes with thyroid disorders .The study groups included a total number of 80 subjects consisting of 60 type 2 diabetic patients divided into 20 hyperthyroidism subjects (group 1) ,20 hypothyroidism subjects (group 2), 20 euthyroidism subjects (group 3) and 20 healthy controls (group 4) . The fasting blood samples were analyzed for (T3,T4,TSH) by using Vitek Immuno d

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 04 2017
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Meiobenthic Invertebrates Community Associated with Aquatic plant Ceratophyllum demersum Salamiyat irrigation canal / north Baghdad
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The aim of the present study is to study the meiobenthic invertebrate's community associated with the aquatic plant Ceratophyllum demersum in Al-Salamiyat irrigation canal / north Baghdad, with the chemical and physical parameters of the canal water, during the study period from September 2015 to May 2016. Two sites were chosen for sample collection, the first site (S1) at the beginning of the canal near it's connection with Tigris river, and the second site (S2) after 10 km from the first site. The chemico-physical analysis results revealed that the water temperature ranged from 10-30oC, and pH values ranged between 6.9-7.8, and the dissolved oxygen concentration and the BOD values from 7.2-9.2 mg/l, and 1.2-5.4 mg/l, respectively. The sal

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 01 2010
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
The Electro-Excitation Form Factors of 7Li Nucleus with Exact Center of Mass Correction
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The inelastic longitudinal electron scattering form factors are calculated for the low-lying excited states of 7Li {the first excited state 2121TJ (0.478 MeV) and the second excited state 2127TJ (4.63 MeV)}. The exact value of the center of mass correction in the translation invariant shell model (TISM) has been included and gives good results. A higher 2p-shell configuration enhances the form factors for high q-values and resolves many discrepancies with the experiments. The data are well described when the core polarization (CP) effects are included through effective nucleon charge. The results are compared with other theoretical models.
Keyword: 7Li inelastic electron scattering form factors calculated with exact

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Publication Date
Sun Nov 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Simulation of Pose to Pose Moving of the Mobile Robot with Specified GPS Points
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The applications of mobile robots in rescue scenarios, surviving to search, and exploration for outdoor navigation have received increasing attention due to their promising prospects. In this paper, a simulation of a differential wheeled mobile robot was presented, implementing a Global Positioning System (GPS) data points to specified starting points, final destination, and total error.

In this work, a simple kinematic controller for polar coordinate trajectory tracking is developed. The tracking between two points, pose to pose, was specified by using the GPS data points. After that, the geodesy (GEO) formulation was used to convert the geodesy coordinate to Euclidean or polar coordinate. The Haversine equation

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Physics: Conference Series
Serum iron status in association with pregnancy outcomes in infertile women undergoing IVF/ICSI
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Abstract<p>Iron status can affect the outcome of <italic>in</italic> vitro-fertilization (IVF) in infertile women who undergoes this process. The aim of this study is to evaluate iron status, ceruloplasmin ferroxidase activity and their association with outcome of pregnancy prior to initiation of IVF/ICSI procedure. The participants were fertile women with male cause infertility (control; n=25), women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS; n=21), women with low anti-Müllerian hormone level (AMH; n=26), and women with unexplained infertility (UI; n=27). Blood samples were obtained on the day of oocyte aspiration. Serum iron, ferritin, transferrin level, and ceruloplasmin ferroxidase act</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Mon Jan 29 2024
Journal Name
Proceedings Of The International Conference On Research Advances In Engineering And Technology - Itechcet 2022
Effect of length to diameter ratio on column bearing capacity stabilized with sodium silicate
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The numerical analysis was conducted to studying the influence of length to diameter ratio (L/D) on the behavior of the soil treated with sand columns treated with 8% sodium silicate for both floating and end bearing type by using finite element method (Plaxis 3D Foundation ) for isolated foundation of real dimensions. The analysis’s study indicate that in the floating type the best improvement ratio was achieved at (L/D=8) when using columns with a diameter of (0.5, 0.7), but when using columns with a diameter of 0.3 m, it was noticed that the bearing improvement ratio increases with increasing (L/d). While the results of the analysis for end bearing type show that the higher improvement ratio was achieved at (L/D=4) when using columns w

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Publication Date
Sat Nov 27 2021
Journal Name
Lecture Notes In Civil Engineering
An Experimental Study on Concavely Curved Soffit Reinforced Concrete Beams Externally Bonded with FRP
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