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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 30 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Middle East and Contemporary Geostrategic Shifts: A Geopolitical Study
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This research focuses on the contemporary geostrategic transformations that afflicted the countries of the Middle East, with a focus on the countries of the Arab East, after the collapse of the system of international relations, and the emergence of the unipolar system led by the United States of America. After the events of September 11 and the events that followed, especially the occupation of Iraq in 2003, the study area witnessed a group of geopolitical variables and the emergence of dangerous phenomena that threatened the state structure in the countries of the Middle East; the most notably are the phenomenon of terrorism, cross-border armed groups, sectarian polarization, the phenomenon of migration and the internal and the externa

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Publication Date
Fri Nov 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Cosmetics, Dermatological Sciences And Applications
Lichen planopilaris is a common scarring alopecia among Iraqi population
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KE Sharquie, AA Noaimi, AF Hameed, Journal of Cosmetics, Dermatological Sciences and Applications, 2013 - Cited by 11

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2011
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Single Particle Level Density in a Harmonic – Oscillator Potential Well
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The purpose of this paper is to study the properties of the
partial level density ( ) l g and the total level density g ( ),
numerically obtained as a l sum of ( ) l g up to 34 max l  , for
a Harmonic – Oscillator potential well. This method applied the
quantum – mechanical phase shift technique and concentrated
on the continuum region. Also a discussion of peculiarities of
quantal calculation for single particle level density of energy –
dependent potential

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Design a Multi-Choice Fuzzy Control System of the Greenhouse
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Applications of nonlinear, time variant, and variable parameters represent a big challenge in a conventional control systems, the control strategy of the fuzzy systems may be represents a simple, a robust and an intelligent solution for such applications.

This paper presents a design of fuzzy control system that consists of three sub controllers; a fuzzy temperature controller (FC_T), a fuzzy humidity controller (FC_H) and a ventilation control system; to control the complicate environment of the greenhouse (GH) using a proposed multi-choice control system approach. However, to reduce the cost of the crop production in the GH, the first choice is using the ventilation system to control the temperature and humidit

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 05 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
A Fuzzy Logic Controller Based Vector Control of IPMSM Drives
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This paper explores a fuzzy-logic based speed controller of an interior permanent magnet synchronous motor (IPMSM) drive based on vector control. PI controllers were mostly used in a speed control loop based field oriented control of an IPMSM. The fundamentals of fuzzy logic algorithms as related to drive control applications are illustrated. A complete comparison between two tuning algorithms of the classical PI controller and the fuzzy PI controller is explained. A simplified fuzzy logic controller (FLC) for the IPMSM drive has been found to maintain high performance standards with a much simpler and less computation implementation. The Matlab simulink results have been given for different mechanical operating conditions. The simulated

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 29 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Measuring Dyes Concentration Using a Low-Cost Visible-Light Spectrophotometer
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   A low-cost, RGB LED-based visible-light spectrophotometer was designed to measure dyes concentration. Dyes are widely used as indicators or coloring agents in different applications and knowing their concentration is an essential part for many studies. The proposed spectrophotometer provides many functionalities that clones the traditional expensive spectrophotometers for a budged price under $50. It was aimed to provide a versatile tool for instructors and educators to teach their students the fundamental concepts behind spectrophotometry. Malachite green, methyl red, and methyl orange dyes were chosen to be good samples to show the integrity of the proposed spectrophotometer in terms of accuracy, repeatability, and sensitivity as

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Darboux Integrability of a Generalized 3D Chaotic Sprott ET9 System
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In this paper, the first integrals of Darboux type of the generalized Sprott ET9 chaotic system will be studied. This study showed that the system has no polynomial, rational, analytic and Darboux first integrals for any value of . All the Darboux polynomials for this system were derived together with its exponential factors. Using the weight homogenous polynomials helped us prove the process.

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 31 2022
Journal Name
Mathematical Modelling Of Engineering Problems
Investigation of Energy Efficient Clustering Algorithms in WSNs: A Review
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In recent years, Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) are attracting more attention in many fields as they are extensively used in a wide range of applications, such as environment monitoring, the Internet of Things, industrial operation control, electric distribution, and the oil industry. One of the major concerns in these networks is the limited energy sources. Clustering and routing algorithms represent one of the critical issues that directly contribute to power consumption in WSNs. Therefore, optimization techniques and routing protocols for such networks have to be studied and developed. This paper focuses on the most recent studies and algorithms that handle energy-efficiency clustering and routing in WSNs. In addition, the prime

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 30 2018
Journal Name
International Journal Of Multimedia And Image Processing
The Design of a Multimedia-Forensic Analysis Tool (M-FAT)
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Digital forensics has become a fundamental requirement for law enforcement due to the growing volume of cyber and computer-assisted crime. Whilst existing commercial tools have traditionally focused upon string-based analyses (e.g., regular expressions, keywords), less effort has been placed towards the development of multimedia-based analyses. Within the research community, more focus has been attributed to the analysis of multimedia content; they tend to focus upon highly specialised specific scenarios such as tattoo identification, number plate recognition, suspect face recognition and manual annotation of images. Given the ever-increasing volume of multimedia content, it is essential that a holistic Multimedia-Forensic Analysis Tool (M-

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 21 2025
Journal Name
Iklil For Human Studies
Review Article A Feminist Gothic in the American Literary Fiction
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Teresa Fitzpatrick presents a connection between oppressed women and the plant of Wisteria in gothic fiction in her article “Wisteria: A Female Eco-Gothic Metaphor in American Fiction Through the Ages.” The connection between women and nature is common in literature as women are usually compared to the beauty or ferocity of flowers, rivers, or natural phenomena in general. The connection extends to the architecture and sort of plants that appear in gothic literature. Gothic novels have routinely been connected to the secrets and life stories of women who cannot have the liberty to live or share them outside their homes. A fearful house with a prisoned person, ghost, or a secret is mostly normally found in gothic writing. Women have exce

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