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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages
Free will between Slavery and Freedom: A Study of Linda Brent in Incidents in the Life of a Slave Girl by Harriet Jacobs
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Harriet Jacobs was a writer and a reformer. As a female writer in the nineteenth century, Jacobs wrote her narrative as a means of resisting the system of slavery. She wrote her book Incidents in the Life of a Slave Girl: Written by Herself, (1842) to reflect upon the exploitation of the black people and the need to change the hierarchal attitude that governs white/black relations. She was engaged in many abolitionist events and her anti-slavery approach appeared clearly in her writings. She shares Du Bios ideas about freedom and emancipation and the need for a political and cultural change. Thus, Du Bois’s theory provides a framework for her autobiographical novel where she portrays Linda Brent, the main character, a strong wille

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Diagnosis of the reality of marketing knowledge management"A survey of the views of a sample of telecom operatorsIn the city of Sulaymaniyah "
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This research aimed to diagnose the perception based on Telecommunications of Iraq to the importance of activating knowledge management marketing in possession, as well as Indication of impediments to activate the management of marketing knowledge in the researched companies, also aimed to show the extent of the existence of significant differences in perception based on Telecommunications Iraqi importance of activating the management marketing knowledge in possession. To achieve the objectives of this research, the questionnaire was developed and distributed to a sample of telecommunications companies in the city of Sulaimaniya, was selected on the criterion according to the company's life in terms of seniority in the telecommunication

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 30 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Evaluation of Investment Decisions in the health sector according to a strategic: Case study in Amir al-Mu'minin Specialized Hospital Approach
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                  The current study aims to apply the methods of evaluating investment decisions to extract the highest value and reduce the economic and environmental costs of the health sector according to the strategy.In order to achieve the objectives of the study, the researcher relied on the deductive approach in the theoretical aspect by collecting sources and previous studies. He also used the applied practical approach, relying on the data and reports of Amir almuminin Hospital for the period (2017-2031) for the purpose of evaluating investment decisions in the hospital. A set of conclusions, the most important of which is: The failure to apply

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
The Effect of Addition of Combination of Plasma Treated Polyester and Polyamide Fibers on Surface Roughness and Some Mechanical Properties of Heat Cured Acrylic Resin
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Publication Date
Sun Apr 23 2017
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Role of Calcium Sulphate in Metigating the Adverse Effect of NaCl in Some of Growth Parameters of (Triticum aestivum L.)C.V. Fateh in Hydroponic Culture
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   This study was carried out to study the tolerance degree of wheat Triticum aestivum L. C. V. AL-Fateh to NaCl (0,20,50,70,100) mM by using CaSO4 (1,5,10) mM in hydroponic culture.  The results showed that the adverse effect of NaCl on some growth parameters such as chlorophyll concentration , soluble carbohydrates and protein content in shoot and root systems were increased with increase of NaCl concentration in growth medium , But these effects are reduced  by using CaSo4 to ellivate the stress of NaCl . The best results were obtained by using 5mM of CaSO4 with 50mM of NaCl and 10mM of CaSO4 with 100mM of NaCl in these concentrations the chlorophyll , soluble carbohydrates and protein contents were raised to the l

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 24 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Studies And Researches Of Sport Education
The effect of the use of the Colb model according to the two forms (adaptive, ascending) in learning some of the technical skills of women
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The objective of the study was to identify the effect of the use of the Colb model for the students of the third stage in the College of Physical Education and Sports Sciences, University of Baghdad,As well as to identify the differences between the research groups in the remote tests in learning skills using the model Colb.The researcher used the experimental method and included the sample of the research on the students of the third stage in the College of Physical Education and Sports Science / University of Baghdad by drawing lots, the third division (j) was chosen to represent the experimental group,And the third division (c) to represent the control groupafter the distribution of the sample splitting measure according to the Colb mode

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 15 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
The Effect of Addition of Combination of Plasma Treated Polyester and Polyamide Fibers on Surface Roughness and Some Mechanical Properties of Heat Cured Acrylic Resin
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Background: Poly (methyl methacrylate) has several disadvantages (poor mechanical properties) like impact and transverse strength. In order to overcome these disadvantages, several methods were used to strengthen the acrylic resin by using different fibers or fillers. This study was conducted to evaluate the effect of Plasma treatment of the fiber on mechanical properties Poly (methyl methacrylate) denture base material. Materials and methods: Specimens were prepared from poly methyl metha acrylic (PMMA) divided according to present of fiber into 4 groups (first group without fiber as control group, second group with Plasma treated polyester fibers, third group with Plasma treated polyamide fibers and fourth group Plasma treated combination

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal University Of Kerbala
Synthesis and Characterization of Some Metal Complexes of [2-chloro-N-(1,5-dimethyl-3-oxo-2-phenyl-2,3-dihydro-1H-pyrazol-4-ylcarbamothioyl)acetamide] (L)
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A new ligand [ 2-chloro-N- (1,5-dimethyl-3-oxo-2-phenyl-2,3-dihydro -1H-pyrazol- 4-ylcarbamothioyl)acetamide](L) was synthesized by reacting the Chloro acetyl isothiocyanate with 4-aminoantipyrine,The ligand was characterized by(C HNS) elemental microanalysis and the spectral measurements including Uv-Vis ,IR ,1H and13C NMR spectra, some transition metals complex of this ligand were prepared and characterized by Uv-Vis, FT-IR spectra, conductivity measurements, magnetic susceptibility and atomic absorption. From the obtained results the molecular formula of all prepared complexes were [M(L)2(H2O)2]Cl2 (M+2 =Mn, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, Cd and Hg),the proposed geometrical structure for all complexes were octahedral.

Publication Date
Mon Jan 11 2016
Journal Name
مجلة كلية التربية الاساسية
Synthesis and Characterization of Some Metal Complexes of [4- chloro-N- 1,5-dimethy l-3-oxo-2- phenyl-2,3-dihydro-1H-pyrazol-4- ylcarbamothioyl(benzamide)
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A new ligand [4-chloro-N-(1,5-dimethyl-3-oxo-2-phenyl-2,3- dihydro-1H-pyrazol-4-ylcarb amothioyl) benzamide] (CAP) was synthesized by reaction of P-ChloroBenzoyl isothio cyanate with 4- aminoantipyrine,The ligand was characterized by micro elemental analysis C.H.N.S.,FT-IR,UV-Vis and1H13CNMR spectra, some transition metals complex of this ligand were prepared and characterized by FT-IR, UV-Vis spectra, conductivity measurements, magnetic susceptibility and atomic absorption. From the obtained results the molecular formula of all prepared complexes were [M(CAP)2(H2O)2]Cl2(M+2 =Mn, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, Cd and Hg),the proposed geometrical structure for all complexes were octahedral

Publication Date
Sun Jun 11 2017
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Synthesis and Characterization of New Chelating Terpolymer Resin Derived from p-Amino Benzoic Acid, Biuret and Formaldehyde and Study Efficiency Extractive from Some Metal Ion
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  In this study terpolymer resin  ) p-ABBF) was prepared by condensation of (p-amino benzoic acid) and (Biuret) with formaldehyde in (1:1:3) mol ratio using hydrolic acid as a reaction medium at 130±2 ℃ .The synthesized terpolymer resin was characterized by elemental analysis , FT-IR and (1H-NMR) spectroscopy. The intrinsic viscosity was determined. The thermal stability of the terpolymer was analyzed by (TGA and DSC).The morphological feature of the (p-ABBF) terpolymer resin was studied by scanning electron microscopy (SEM).Bach equilibrium method was employed to study analytical efficiency of the terpolymer resin towards certain trivalent and divalent metal ions such as (Cu+2,Ni+2, Co+2,Zn+2,Cd+2 and Cr+3( where thes

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