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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Sat Mar 01 2008
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
The Temperature Dependence of Photoconductivity in a-Ge20Se80 Thin Films
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The photoconductivity and its dependence on light intensity have been investigated in a-Ge20Se80 thin films as a function of temperature between (293–323)K. The result showed that the photoconductivity and photosensitivity increase with increase of annealing temperature. This behavior is interpreted in terms of the dispersive diffusion –controlled recombination of localized electrons and holes.

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Strategic Entrepreneur ship and its role in a marketing performance
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The current research aims through its chapters to verify the relationship and impact of strategic leadership as an independent variable in the marketing performance as a respondent variable, in a leap cement plant, and try to come up with a set of recommendations that contribute to enhancing the practice and adoption of the two variables in the organization under discussion. And based on the importance of the research topic to the community, and to the researched organization and its members, the analytical and analytical approach was adopted in the completion of this research, and the research community included a leap cement plant in Anbar Governorate, while the research sample was represented by (department heads, and people o

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Publication Date
Sat Apr 06 2019
Journal Name
International Journal Of English Linguistics
A Morpho- Syntactic study of Contemporary Science Fiction Short Stories
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The aim of the present study is to research two morphological processes: acronym and compounding (phrasal compounds/ circumlocution) and one syntactic category which are 'existential sentences' in science fiction short stories. The present paper identifies different types and rates of existential sentences. In this respect , 'bare existential and locative’ read the high percentages and may be contrasted with other classifications of English existential sentences which have a verb other than 'be' and a definite expression. 'Phrasal compounds' vary in rates as they constitute notable percentage for those that involve 'lexical means and lexical relations' followed by 'prepositional compounds' , 'conjunctional compounds' , and those invo

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 31 2022
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
A Population based Study on Self Medication Practice in Pakistan
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Background: The risk of antibiotics resistance (AR) increases due to excessive of antibiotics either by health care provider or by the patients.

Objective: The assessment of the self-medication Practice of over the counter drugs and other prescription drugs and its associated risk factor.

Subjects and Methods: Study design: A descriptive study was conducted from “20th December 2019 to 08th January 2021”. A pre validated and structured questionnaire in English and Urdu language was created to avoid language barrier including personal detail, reasons and source and knowledge about over the counter drugs and Antibiotics. Sample of the study was randomly selected.

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Publication Date
Mon Apr 09 2018
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Construction and Evaluation of a Uniaxial Mechanical Actuated Vibration Shaker
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In the present paper a low cost mechanical vibration shaker of rotating unbalanced type with uniaxial shaking table was designed and constructed in an attempt to provide opportunities for experimental testing and application of vibration in experimental modal analysis, stress relief of weldments, effect of vibration on heat transfer and seismic testing of civil engineering structures. Also, it provides unexpressive solution to enhance the knowledge and technical skills of students in mechanical vibration laboratory. The shaker consists of a five main parts shaker frame, shaker table, flexible support, drive motor, and eccentricity mechanism. The experimental results show that the amplitude of the shaker is increased with increasing the f

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2023
Journal Name
International Conference On Scientific Research & Innovation (icsri 2022)
Saccharomyces Cerevisiae as a human pathogen in renal transplant recipients
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Publication Date
Tue Jun 01 2021
Journal Name
International Journal Of Nonlinear Analysis And Applications
Bayes estimators of a multivariate generalized hyperbolic partial regression model
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Publication Date
Wed Sep 29 2021
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Simulation of a Self-Balancing Platform on the Mobile Car
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In the last years, the self-balancing platform has become one of the most common candidates to use in many applications such as flight, biomedical fields, industry. This paper introduced the simulated model of a proposed self-balancing platform that described the self–balancing attitude in (X-axis, Y-axis, or both axis) under the influence of road disturbance. To simulate the self-balanced platform's performance during the tilt, an integration between Solidworks, Simscape, and Simulink toolboxes in MATLAB was used. The platform's dynamic model was drawn in SolidWorks and exported as a STEP file used in the Simscape Multibody environment. The system is controlled using the proportional-integral-deriva

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 14 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
A Pragma-Stylistic Study of Misdirection in Selected Detective Novels
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The analysis of detective novels has taken different aspects. The linguistic analysis of them, for example, has tackled the linguistic systems of morphology, phonology, syntax, semantics, and pragmatics. In line with the linguistic analysis, this study explores the various pragmatic and stylistic devices realized through detective novels for the purpose of misdirecting and deceiving the reader. The problem is that when readers try to reach to the truth, they face difficulties. They might not reach to the right solution or infer wrong conclusions because writers use some techniques to hide the truth and mislead them. This study aims at examining these techniques and devices; namely, Grice's Maxims and ambiguity as pragmatic devices on the

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Publication Date
Mon Apr 01 2013
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
WHAT IS DEMOCRACY? A MEDIA CONCEPT: (Socio-Cultural Linguistic Analysis)
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It is easy to talk about democracy, but it is difficult to practice. We talk about postmodernism, but difficult to be embodied in the ground. Yet, the age of democracy and modernity at the same time prompted the researcher to try to find a media concept for it. It does not mean that this concept has not yet formed. But the rooting of democracy and the approaching of states and groups towards it, made it necessary to by studied again.

The relationship between democracy and the media has made them look like one concept. The existence of one is linked to the existence of the other. The reality is only a linguistic formulation, but the social and cultural aspect is related to democracy origin

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