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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Tue Apr 05 2011
Journal Name
Global Journal Of Health Science
Analysis of Acute Viral Hepatitis (A and E) in Iraq
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Hepatitis, an inflammation of the liver, has a number of infectious and non-infectious causes. Two of the viruses that cause hepatitis (hepatitis A and E) can be transmitted through water and food; hygiene is therefore important in their control. First, to assess the importance of HAV and HEV as a possible diagnosis for clinically diagnosed patients with acute viral hepatitis. Second, to assess the prevalence of hepatitis A and E in all provinces of Iraq and study its association with age, gender. This study consisted of two groups: The first group consisted of 2975 patients with a clinical diagnosis of acute viral hepatitis. The second group consisted of a total of 9610 persons, which were recruited by surveying a nationally representative

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 06 2011
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
The Composition operator induced by a polynomial of degree n
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In this paper, we characterize normal composition operators induced by holomorphic self-map , when and .Moreover, we study other related classes of operators, and then we generalize these results to polynomials of degree n.

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Publication Date
Mon Jul 03 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Polymer & Composites
Metal Complexes of Cephalexin and Their Biological Activities: A Review
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Cephalexin and its derivatives are commonly utilized in the pharmaceutical and medicinal industry due to their biological and pharmaceutical activities, including anti-microbial, anti-cancer, anti-bacterial, and herbicidal activities as well as possessing high palatability and being useful for skin and joint infections. Interestingly, some organic drugs, including cephalexin, which exhibit toxicological and pharmacological properties, can be administered in forms of metal complexes. Many researchers have synthesized organic ligands derived from cephalexin in forms of Schiff bases and azo compounds which exhibited higher biological and medicinal properties when compared to cephalexin alone. One of the important features that make Schiff base

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 15 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
The Pathological Mechanisms of Obesity-Related Glomerulopathy: A review article
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The rising prevalence of obesity-related glomerulopathy (ORG) occurs in accordance with the rising prevalence of obesity worldwide. Clinically ORG is manifested by slowly progressing microalbuminuria that may develop to clinically evident proteinuria. Pathological characteristics of ORG include glomerular hypertrophy in the presence or absence of focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (FSGS). ORG can develop into clinically overt chronic renal insufficiency or even end-stage kidney disease. This article reviews the most important mechanisms for the development of ORG; that are abnormal renal hemodynamics, stimulation of renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system (RAAS), impairment of insulin sensetivity, ectopic lipid deposition, adipose tissue cy

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 19 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Evaluation of a new orthodontic bonding system (Beauty Ortho Bond)
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Background: The purpose of the current study was to evaluate the efficacy of a new orthodontic bonding system (Beauty Ortho Bond) involving the shear bond strength in dry and wet environments, and adhesion remnant index (ARI) scores evaluation in regard to other bonding systems (Heliosit and Resilience Orthodontic Adhesives). Materials and methods: Sixty defect free extracted premolars were randomly divided into six groups of 10 teeth each, mounted in acrylic resin, three groups for a dry environment and three for a wet one. Shear bond strength test was performed with a cross head speed of 0.5 mm/min, while surfaces of enamel and bracket-adhesive-enamel surfaces were examined with stereomicroscope For ARI scores evaluation. Data were analyz

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 31 2017
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Design and Implementation of a Pharmaceutical Inventory Database Management System
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The main aim of this paper are the design and implementation of a pharmaceutical inventory database management system. The system was implemented by creating a database containing information about the stored medicines in the inventory, customers making transactions with the pharmaceutical trading company (which owns the inventory), medical suppliers, employees, payments, etc. The database was connected to the main application using C sharp. The proposed system should help in manag inginventory operations which include adding/updating employees’ information, preparing sale and purchase invoices, generating reports, adding/updating customers and suppliers, tracking customer payments and checking expired medicines in order to be disposed

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Publication Date
Sat Mar 01 2008
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
The Temperature Dependence of Photoconductivity in a-Ge20Se80 Thin Films
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The photoconductivity and its dependence on light intensity have been investigated in a-Ge20Se80 thin films as a function of temperature between (293–323)K. The result showed that the photoconductivity and photosensitivity increase with increase of annealing temperature. This behavior is interpreted in terms of the dispersive diffusion –controlled recombination of localized electrons and holes.

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Strategic Entrepreneur ship and its role in a marketing performance
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The current research aims through its chapters to verify the relationship and impact of strategic leadership as an independent variable in the marketing performance as a respondent variable, in a leap cement plant, and try to come up with a set of recommendations that contribute to enhancing the practice and adoption of the two variables in the organization under discussion. And based on the importance of the research topic to the community, and to the researched organization and its members, the analytical and analytical approach was adopted in the completion of this research, and the research community included a leap cement plant in Anbar Governorate, while the research sample was represented by (department heads, and people o

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Publication Date
Sat Apr 06 2019
Journal Name
International Journal Of English Linguistics
A Morpho- Syntactic study of Contemporary Science Fiction Short Stories
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The aim of the present study is to research two morphological processes: acronym and compounding (phrasal compounds/ circumlocution) and one syntactic category which are 'existential sentences' in science fiction short stories. The present paper identifies different types and rates of existential sentences. In this respect , 'bare existential and locative’ read the high percentages and may be contrasted with other classifications of English existential sentences which have a verb other than 'be' and a definite expression. 'Phrasal compounds' vary in rates as they constitute notable percentage for those that involve 'lexical means and lexical relations' followed by 'prepositional compounds' , 'conjunctional compounds' , and those invo

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 31 2022
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
A Population based Study on Self Medication Practice in Pakistan
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Background: The risk of antibiotics resistance (AR) increases due to excessive of antibiotics either by health care provider or by the patients.

Objective: The assessment of the self-medication Practice of over the counter drugs and other prescription drugs and its associated risk factor.

Subjects and Methods: Study design: A descriptive study was conducted from “20th December 2019 to 08th January 2021”. A pre validated and structured questionnaire in English and Urdu language was created to avoid language barrier including personal detail, reasons and source and knowledge about over the counter drugs and Antibiotics. Sample of the study was randomly selected.

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