Preferred Language
Articles
/
jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
...Show More Authors

Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

Crossref
View Publication Preview PDF
Quick Preview PDF
Publication Date
Sun Jul 29 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
On the Embedding of an Arc Into a Cubic Curves in a Finite Projective Plane of Order Five
...Show More Authors

The main aims of this research is to find the stabilizer groups of a cubic curves over a finite field of order , studying the properties of their groups and then constructing the arcs of degree  which are embedding in a cubic curves of even size which are considering as the arcs of degree . Also drawing all these arcs.

View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Sun Feb 10 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Woman’s Identity Crisis in the Clash of Cultures: A Study of Betool Khedairi’s Novel: A Sky So close
...Show More Authors

This paper is an attempt to clarify the impact of Postcolonialism, one of the most
challenging fields of study that has emerged in recent years, on representations of women in
once-colonised countries and in Western locations. It discusses the influence of cultural
differences on the status and identity of a woman who experience ‗multiculturalism‘. The
study is an analytical reading of a contemporary novel written by the Iraqi writer Betool Al-
Kudairi. The emphasis lies on the clash between two different cultures and traditions
represented by the British mother and the Iraqi father and its effect on the life and identity of
the protagonist. The main focus is on idea of ‗hybrid identity‘ and the absence of th

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Thu Oct 01 2009
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
The Structural and Optical Properties of Hydrogenated and Nitrogenated a-Si0.1Ge0.9 and a-Si0.1Ge0.9:3% B Thin Films
...Show More Authors

It is shown that pure and 3% boron doped a-Si0.1Ge0.9:H and a-Si0.1Ge0.9:N thin films
could be prepared by flash evaporation processes. The hydrogenation and nitrogenation
are very successful in situ after depositing the films. The FT-IR analysis gave all the
known absorbing bonds of hydrogen and nitrogen with Si and Ge.
Our data showed a considerable effect of annealing temperature on the structural and
optical properties of the prepared films. The optical energy gap (Eopt.) of a-Si0.1Ge0.9
samples showed to have significant increase with annealing temperature (Ta) also the
refractive index and the real part of dielectric constant increases with Ta, however the
extinction coefficient and imaginary part of dielect

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Fri Mar 15 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
A clinicopathological analysis of 151 odontogenic tumors based on new WHO classification 2022: A retrospective cross-sectional study
...Show More Authors

Background: Odontogenic tumors are a diverse group of lesions with a variety of clinical behavior and histopathologic subtypes, from hamartomatous and benign to malignant. The study aimed to examine the clinical and pathological features of odontogenic tumors in Baghdad over the last 11 years (2011–2021). Materials and Methods: The present retrospective study analyzed all formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tissue blocks of patients diagnosed with an odontogenic tumor that were retrieved from archives at a teaching hospital/College of Dentistry in Baghdad University, Iraq, between 2011 and 2021. The diagnosis of each case was confirmed by examining the hematoxylin and eosin stained sections by two expert pathologists. Data from pati

... Show More
Scopus (2)
Crossref (1)
Scopus Crossref
Publication Date
Mon Oct 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Terramechanics
Interaction of a rigid beam resting on a strong granular layer overlying weak granular soil: Multi-methodological investigations
...Show More Authors

In the geotechnical and terramechanical engineering applications, precise understandings are yet to be established on the off-road structures interacting with complex soil profiles. Several theoretical and experimental approaches have been used to measure the ultimate bearing capacity of the layered soil, but with a significant level of differences depending on the failure mechanisms assumed. Furthermore, local displacement fields in layered soils are not yet studied well. Here, the bearing capacity of a dense sand layer overlying loose sand beneath a rigid beam is studied under the plain-strain condition. The study employs using digital particle image velocimetry (DPIV) and finite element method (FEM) simulations. In the FEM, an experiment

... Show More
View Publication
Scopus (12)
Crossref (9)
Scopus Clarivate Crossref
Publication Date
Tue Feb 04 2025
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
Information Pollution in Iraqi Journalism…Study in Causes and Sources - A research drawn from a Master Degree thesis
...Show More Authors

Information pollution is regarded as a big problem facing journalists working in the editing section, whereby journalistic materials face such pollution through their way across the editing pyramid. This research is an attempt to define the concept of journalistic information pollution, and what are the causes and sources of this pollution. The research applied the descriptive research method to achieve its objectives. A questionnaire was used to collect data. The findings indicate that journalists are aware of the existence of information pollution in journalism, and this pollution has its causes and resources.

View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref
Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Organizational Tactics An Approach to Strategic Agility A field study in a sample of mobile operators in Iraq
...Show More Authors

The current research dealt with the issue of organizational skillfulness as an entry point to reach strategic agility. The study has been tested in Iraq's mobile operators - Asia Cell, Zain Iraq and Cork Telecom. The study was applied to a sample of (93) managers distributed at various levels of management (board members, general managers, commissioners, department managers, people managers, unit managers, office managers). The survey used the questionnaire as a key tool for collecting data and information as well as personal interviews. It has sought to test a number of hypotheses related to correlation and influence relationships between the variables of the study, in order to answer the questions related to the problem of stud

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref (3)
Crossref
Publication Date
Mon Mar 27 2017
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
Evaluation of the Clinical use of Metformin or Pioglitazone in Combination with Meloxicam in Patients with Knee Osteoarthritis; using Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis outcome Score
...Show More Authors

Osteoarthritis is the most prevalent arthritic disease and a leading cause of disability. The pathogenesis of osteoarthritis involves multiple etiologies, including variable degree of synovial inflammation. Metformin and pioglitazone could potentially reduce the levels and activity of inflammatory mediators. This may consider as a new therapeutic approach added to the current used drugs in an attempt to decrease the pain, inflammation, and improve daily activity and quality of life in patients with knee osteoarthritis.

This study designed to evaluate the clinical utility of using metformin or pioglitazone as anti-inflammatory agents in combination with non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAID) of selective type of cyclooxygen

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref (4)
Crossref
Publication Date
Sun Dec 06 2009
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Synthesis and Characterization of (Fe(II),Co(II),Ni(II) and Cu(II)) Complexes with Schiff Base derived from [benzoyl hydrazine] with [benzyl mono oxime]
...Show More Authors

The reaction of [Benzoyl hydrazine] with [Diphenyl mono oxime] and Glacial acetic acid was carried out in methanol gave a new tridentate ligand [Benzoic acid (2-hydroxyimino- 1, 2-diphyneylethylidene) - hydrazide]. This ligand was reacted with some metal ions (Fe(II), Co(II), Ni(II), and Cu(II)) in methanol with (1:1) metal : ligand ratio to give a series of new complexes of the general formula [M(L)Cl2.H2O], where M= Fe(11), Co(11), Ni(11) and Cu(11). All compounds were characterized by spectroscopic methods (I.R, UV-Vis), elemental microanalysis (C.H.N), atomic absorption, magnetic susceptibility, and conductivity measurements. From the obtained data the proposed molecular structures were suggested for the complexes of Fe

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref
Publication Date
Sun Dec 06 2009
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Synthesis and Characterization of (Fe(II),Co(II),Ni(II) and Cu(II)) Complexes with Schiff Base derived from [benzoyl hydrazine] with [benzyl mono oxime]
...Show More Authors

The reaction of [Benzoyl hydrazine] with [Diphenyl mono oxime] and Glacial acetic acid was carried out in methanol gave a new tridentate ligand [Benzoic acid (2- hydroxyimino- 1, 2-diphyneylethylidene) - hydrazide]. This ligand was reacted with some metal ions (Fe(II), Co(II), Ni(II), and Cu(II)) in methanol with (1:1) metal : ligand ratio to give a series of new complexes of the general formula [M(L)Cl2.H2O], where M= Fe(11), Co(11), Ni(11) and Cu(11) . All compounds were characterized by spectroscopic methods (I.R, UV-Vis), elemental microanalysis (C.H.N), atomic absorption, magnetic susceptibility, and conductivity measurements. From the obtained data the proposed molecular structures were suggested for the complexes of Fe (II), Co (II)

... Show More