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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 16 2016
Journal Name
Case Studies In Surgery
Ameloblastoma: A clinical study of 25 Iraqi patients
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Objective: Geographic differences in clinical and pathological aspects of ameloblastoma have been suggested, therefore the purpose of this study was to analyze cases of ameloblastoma in terms of clinical and radiographic manifestations, histopathological types, treatment modalities and recurrence rate and compare them with reports from other parts of the world. Methods: The medical reports of patients diagnosed with ameloblastoma were reviewed and the data concerning the age, gender, chief complaint, the anatomical site of the lesion, radiographic appearance, histopathological diagnosis, treatment approach and recurrence were retrieved. Surgical treatment consisted of either enucleation with curettage and peripheral ostectomy or resection;

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Wed May 31 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Geological Journal
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The maximization of the net present value of the investment in oil field improvements is greatly aided by the optimization of well location, which plays a significant role in the production of oil. However, using of optimization methods in well placement developments is exceedingly difficult since the well placement optimization scenario involves a large number of choice variables, objective functions, and restrictions. In addition, a wide variety of computational approaches, both traditional and unconventional, have been applied in order to maximize the efficiency of well installation operations. This research demonstrates how optimization approaches used in well placement have progressed since the last time they were examined. Fol

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Sat Oct 01 2022
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Particles-based Medicated Wound Dressings: A Comprehensive Review
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Fri Sep 01 2023
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Sun Dec 30 2012
Journal Name
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Wed Sep 15 2021
Journal Name
Al-adab Journal
The Iraqi countryside in a novel (Exceeded border)
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The novel was generally distinguished from other literary arts in its connection with the living reality as an imaginative practice that relies on political, economic, social, intellectual and cultural references and as a crucial tool in reading cultural references and dive deep into reality. As every novelist has a vision to embody this reality. As every novelist has a vision to embody this reality. The novel of ("Exceeded border by Hammed Al-Kafa’i) is a considered a fertile field for presenting social issues in their apparent structure and revealing the cultural patterns behind them which lies in its deep structure. The novel here moves its characters in its imaginary world in a way that it becomes more capable of adaptation and crysta

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Publication Date
Mon Apr 05 2021
Journal Name
Solid State Technology
Genetic Algorithms in Construction Project Management: A Review
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Genetic algorithms (GA) are a helpful instrument for planning and controlling the activities of a project. It is based on the technique of survival of the fittest and natural selection. GA has been used in different sectors of construction and building however that is rarely documented. This research aimed to examine the utilisation of genetic algorithms in construction project management. For this purpose, the research focused on the benefits and challenges of genetic algorithms, and the extent to which genetic algorithms is utilised in construction project management. Results showed that GA provides an ability of generating near optimal solutions which can be adopted to reduce complexity in project management and resolve difficult problem

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 09 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Improving IoT Applications Using a Proposed Routing Protocol
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The main objective of this work is to propose a new routing protocol for wireless sensor network employed to serve IoT systems. The routing protocol has to adapt with different requirements in order to enhance the performance of IoT applications. The link quality, node depth and energy are used as metrics to make routing decisions. Comparison with other protocols is essential to show the improvements achieved by this work, thus protocols designed to serve the same purpose such as AODV, REL and LABILE are chosen to compare the proposed routing protocol with. To add integrative and holistic, some of important features are added and tested such as actuating and mobility. These features are greatly required by some of IoT applications and im

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 25 2020
Journal Name
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Publication Date
Sun Jul 25 2021
Journal Name
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A Survey paper on Lossy Audio Compression Methods
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During the two last decades ago, audio compression becomes the topic of many types of research due to the importance of this field which reflecting on the storage capacity and the transmission requirement. The rapid development of the computer industry increases the demand for audio data with high quality and accordingly, there is great importance for the development of audio compression technologies, lossy and lossless are the two categories of compression. This paper aims to review the techniques of the lossy audio compression methods, summarize the importance and the uses of each method.

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