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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 01 2021
Journal Name
Case Studies In Construction Materials
CFRP strengthening efficiency on enhancement punching shear resistance of RC bubbled slabs with openings
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Publication Date
Fri Aug 29 2025
Journal Name
Scr Med
Balloon Angioplasty in the Treatment of Children With Native Aortic Coarctation: Is Reintervention Predictable?
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Reintervention after balloon angioplasty is often considered inevitable in children with coarctation of the aorta (COA). The present study aimed to evaluate predictors of re-intervention after balloon angioplasty for COA, with the goal of identifying patient and procedural characteristics that may influence long-term outcomes

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
The Response of Reinforced Concrete Composite Beams Reinforced with Pultruded GFRP to Repeated Loads
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This paper investigates the experimental response of composite reinforced concrete with GFRP and steel I-sections under limited cycles of repeated load. The practical work included testing four beams. A reference beam, two composite beams with pultruded GFRP I-sections, and a composite beam with a steel I-beam were subjected to repeated loading. The repeated loading test started by loading gradually up to a maximum of 75% of the ultimate static failure load for five loading and unloading cycles. After that, the specimens were reloaded gradually until failure. All test specimens were tested under a three-point load. Experimental results showed that the ductility index increased for the composite beams relative to the reference specim

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 05 2023
Journal Name
Engineering, Technology & Applied Science Research
Theoretical Analysis of Composite RC Beams with Pultruded GFRP Beams subjected to Impact Loading
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Glass Fiber Reinforced Polymer (GFRP) beams have gained attention due to their promising mechanical properties and potential for structural applications. Combining GFRP core and encasing materials creates a composite beam with superior mechanical properties. This paper describes the testing encased GFRP beams as composite Reinforced Concrete (RC) beams under low-velocity impact load. Theoretical analysis was used with practical results to simulate the tested beams' behavior and predict the generated energies during the impact loading. The impact response was investigated using repeated drops of 42.5 kg falling mass from various heights. An analysis was performed using accelerometer readings to calculate the generalized inertial load

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Wed Mar 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Craniofacial Surgery
Lateral Ridge Splitting (Expansion) With Immediate Placement of Endosseous Dental Implant Using Piezoelectric Device
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Publication Date
Sun Nov 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Physics: Conference Series
Synthesis, Characterization and Biological Activity of Mixed Ligand Metal Salts Complexes with Various Ligands
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Metal (III) and (II) coordination compounds of o- phenylenediamine, oxalic acid dihydrate and 8-hydroxyquinoline were synthesized for mixed ligand complexes and characterized using FT-IR, UV-Vis and mass spectra, atomic absorption, elemental analysis, electric conductance and magnetic susceptibility measurements. In addition, thermal behavior (TGA) of the metal complexes (1-6) showed good agreement with the formula suggested from the analytical data. The stoichiometric reaction between the metal (III) and (II) ions with three various ligands in molar ratio at aqueous ethyl alchol for (1:1:1:1) (M: O-PDA: OA: 8-HQ) [where M = Cr+3, Mn+2, Co+2, Ni+2. Cu+2 and Zn+2; O-PDA = O-Phenylenediamine; OA = Oxalic acid and 8-HQ = 8-Hydroxyquinoline]. R

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
Thermal Science
Experimental investigation of the thermal performance of wet cooling tower with splash fills packing
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With the increasing intensity of the ecological and environmental problems and the scarcity of fresh water, this paper was introduced to investigate the ability to use treated wastewater as a cooling media via studying its behavior throughout a cooling tower. The simultaneous transfer of heat and mass from the treated wastewater to air over splash-fill packing arranged in a zigzag manner was studied. The characteristic of the cooling tower, the outlet water temperature, and the rejected heat were investigated as the water-to-air ratio and inlet water temperature were varied. The core results show that the cooling tower of the tower decreases with increasing water-to-air ratio, and increases with the raise of inlet water temperature.

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
The Response of Reinforced Concrete Composite Beams Reinforced with Pultruded GFRP to Repeated Loads
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This paper investigates the experimental response of composite reinforced concrete with GFRP and steel I-sections under limited cycles of repeated load. The practical work included testing four beams. A reference beam, two composite beams with pultruded GFRP I-sections, and a composite beam with a steel I-beam were subjected to repeated loading. The repeated loading test started by loading gradually up to a maximum of 75% of the ultimate static failure load for five loading and unloading cycles. After that, the specimens were reloaded gradually until failure. All test specimens were tested under a three-point load. Experimental results showed that the ductility index increased for the composite beams relative to the refe

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Publication Date
Mon Aug 01 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
The Association of Prothrombin Gene Mutations and Cytomegalovirus Infection with Abortion Among Iraqi Women
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Abortion is categorized as the termination of conception caused by the failure or removal of the embryo from the uterus before the conclusion of pregnancy. Microorganisms and genetic factors are two of the many factors associated with abortion. Cytomegalovirus is a widespread congenital virus infection pathogen that affects a wide variety of people. The prothrombin gene is one of the essential causes that trigger blood clotting and the function of abortion women, therefore the aim of the study is to detect and associate Cytomegalovirus and prothrombin gene mutation (Gene ID: 14061 in NCBI) with abortion through genetic and immunological methods. Five ml of whole blood was collected from an intravenous puncture and divided into two tubes,

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 01 2024
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Association of pvc genes expression with Biofilm formation in Clinical Isolates of Pseudomonas aeruginosa
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PvcABCD are cluster of genes found in Pseudomonas aeruginosa. The research was designed to examine the relationship between the pvc genes expression and cupB gene, which plays a crucial role in the development of biofilm, and rhlR, which regulates the expression of biofilm-related genes, and to investigate whether the pvc genes form one or two operons. The aims were achieved by employing qRT-PCR technique to measure the gene expression of genes of interest. It was found that out of 25 clinical isolates, 21 isolates were qualified as P.aeruginosa. Amongst, 18(85.7%) were evaluated as biofilm producers, 10 (47.6%), 5 (23.8%), and 3 (14.2%) were evaluated as strong, moderate and weak producers respectively, while, 3 (14.2%) were considered

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