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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 01 2016
Journal Name
Veterinary World
Immunotoxic effect of thiamethoxam in immunized mice with Brucella abortus cultural filtrate antigen
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Abstract Aim: This study was planned for determination the toxic effect of thiamethoxam (TMX) in immunized mice with Brucella abortus culture filtrate antigen (CFBAgs) (as a vaccine) and its role of TMX on decrease activity of B. abortus antigen on eliciting of humoral and cellular immunity. Materials and Methods: To achieve these goals 60 female mice were used, 7-8 weeks age, they were divided equally into three groups (20 in each group) and treated as follows: 1st group: Mice were immunized with CFBAgs intraperitoneally in two doses, 2 weeks intervals with (protein concentration 2 mg\ml), 2nd group: Mice immunized as in the 1st group and was administrated orally with 1/10 lethal dose 50% of TMX (83.7 mg/kg B.W.) for 4 weeks daily, 3rd gro

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 22 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Agricultural Sciences
RESPONSE SEEDS PRODUCTION OF BROAD BEAN TO FOLIAR SPRAY WITH MAGNESIUM AND BORON
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Publication Date
Wed Jul 03 2024
Journal Name
Al-rafidain Journal Of Medical Sciences ( Issn 2789-3219 )
Bioavailability of Bilastine Oral Self-nanoemulsion: Comparative Study with Commercial Formula in Rats
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Bilastine (BL) is a novel non-sedating second-generation antihistamine, and its bioavailability is about 60%. Objective: To compare the bioavailability of prepared oral self-nanoemulsions of BL (BL-SNE) with that of pure BL and marketed tablets. Methods: Four groups of Wistar rats were used in this study, each with six rats weighing between 200 and 250 g. They were treated orally using a a gavage tube. The groups were fed either with conventional tablets ("Alerbix®") after being ground and dispersed with deionized water (DIW), treated with BL-SNE or fed with pure BL powder suspension. The fourth group did not receive any medication. The concentration of BL in the rat’s plasma was measured using HPLC. We used Trandolapril as an an interna

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 06 2021
Journal Name
Materials
Strengthening of Continuous Reinforced Concrete Deep Beams with Large Openings Using CFRP Strips
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To accommodate utilities in buildings, different sizes of openings are provided in the web of reinforced concrete deep beams, which cause reductions in the beam strength and stiffness. This paper aims to investigate experimentally and numerically the effectiveness of using carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) strips, as a strengthening technique, to externally strengthen reinforced concrete continuous deep beams (RCCDBs) with large openings. The experimental work included testing three RCCDBs under five-point bending. A reference specimen was prepared without openings to explore the reductions in strength and stiffness after providing large openings. Openings were created symmetrically at the center of spans of the other specimens

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Publication Date
Mon Jul 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of The Faculty Of Medicine Baghdad
Evaluation of the new marker interleukin - 33 in Iraqi female patients with hyperthyroidism
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Background: Hyperthyroidism refers to overactive of thyroid gland leading to excessive synthesis of thyroid hormones and accelerated metabolism in the peripheral tissue. Objective: The aim of this study is to evaluate a new member of the IL-1 super family of cytokines interleukin-33(IL-33) levels in serum .in order to evaluate its utility as clinical bio marker of autoimmune disease (i.e. hyperthyroidism) Methods: The present study was conducted on 30 patients from the Iraqi female patients with hyperthyroidism attending Baghdad teaching hospital, in addition to 30 healthy controls. All subjects were (35-65) years old. Parameters measured in the sera of patients and healthy groups, were interleukin -33 (IL-33), Thyroxin (T4), Thyroxin (T3)

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 11 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
Serum Aldosterone Levels in Patients With Diabetic Nephropathy in Relation to Vascular Calcification
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Diabetic Nephropathy(DN) is a complex disease manifested by persistence microalbuminuria   occurring due to the interaction between hemodynamic and metabolic pathway that activates the local renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system resulting in a decline in renal functions.

This study aimed to quantify the associations between serum aldosterone concentration and fetuin- A as a marker of calcification in type 2 diabetic patients with and without microalbuminuria from one side, and study the possible relationship between aldosterone and fetuin-A with glycemic indices, serum electrolyte, renal function and microalbuminuria and body mass index from the other side.

A case-control study involved eighty-six adult subjects

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Estimation of Apelin Levels in Iraqi Patients with Type II Diabetic Peripheral Neuropathy
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Diabetes mellitus type 2 (T2DM) is a chronic and progressive condition, which affects people all around the world. The risk of complications increases with age if the disease is not managed properly. Diabetic neuropathy is caused by excessive blood glucose and lipid levels, resulting in nerve damage. Apelin is a peptide hormone that is found in different human organs, including the central nervous system and adipose tissue. The aim of this study is to estimate Apelin levels in diabetes type 2 and Diabetic peripheral Neuropathy (DPN) Iraqi patients and show the extent of peripheral nerve damage. The current study included 120 participants: 40 patients with Diabetes Mellitus, 40 patients with Diabetic peripheral Neuropathy, and 40 healthy

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 30 2020
Journal Name
Neuroquantology
Electronic Transfers and (NLO) Properties Predicted by AB Initio Methods with Prove Experimentally
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Hartree-Fock (HF) method relies in the calculations of nonlinear optical properties (NLO) for benzoic acid molecule. Also, another theoretical study is conducted by using the TD-DFT Density Functional Theory through B3LYP/High Base Set 6-311++G (2d,2p) on Gaussian program09. Moreover, an experimental study has been done to obtain the electrons spectrum for benzoic acid with and without ethanol. While the experimental study is done by using UV/VIS. spectrophotometer. Energy gap values of electronic transition between HOMO and LUMO is obtained from theoretical and experimental results. Consequently, the theoretical result for determining the energy gap calculated from EHOMO-LUMO wasvery close to the results of UV / VIS. spectrum. A theoretica

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 27 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Salivary vitamin E and uric acid in patients with OLP and healthy individuals
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Background: Oral Lichen planus (OLP) is a T-cell mediated chronic inflammatory oral mucosal disease of unknown etiology. Recent studies have reported an increased oxidative stress and lipid peroxidation in such patients. This suggests that reactive oxygen species may have a role in the pathogenesis of lichen planus. Oxidative stress in OLP release molecules consisting of granzymes resulting in local tissue damage in the effectors. Antioxidants that can defend against oxidative stress in the body cells include enzymes, as well as non- enzymatic antioxidants, such as melatonin, uric acid, vitamin A and E. Purpose: To study the level of salivary vitamin E and uric acid as antioxidant agents in patients with OLP and compared with healthy con

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 01 2010
Journal Name
Food Chemistry
Determination of aflatoxins in animal feeds by HPLC with multifunctional column clean-up
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A reversed-phase HPLC method with fluorescence detection for the determination of the aflatoxins B1, B2, G1 and G2 in 42 animal feeds, comprising corn (16), soya bean meal (8), mixed meal (13), sunflower, wheat, canola, palm kernel, copra meals (1 each) was carried out. The samples were first extracted using acetonitrile:water (9:1), and was further cleaned-up using a multifunctional column. Optimum conditions for the extraction and chromatographic separation were investigated. By adopting an isocratic chromatographic system using a mobile phase comprising acetonitrile:methanol:water (8:27:65, v/v/v), the separation of the four aflatoxins was possible within 30 min. Recoveries for aflatoxins B1, B2, G1 and G2 were 98 ± 0.7%, 95 ± 1.0%, 94

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