Preferred Language
Articles
/
jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
...Show More Authors

Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

Crossref
View Publication Preview PDF
Quick Preview PDF
Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of College Of Education For Women
The Decisive Answers: A Pragmatic Linguistic Study
...Show More Authors

يهتم هذا البحث بدراسة الأجوبة المسكتة,وهي أجوبة سريعة وحاسمة تقطع حجة الخصم وتفحمه وتغلقالحوار.وقد أرتكز البحث على منهجية تداولية تنظرإلى فاعلية الجواب المسكت في المحاورة وإنهائها من زواياإنجازية و حجاجية.وقد تكون البحث من ديباجة ممهدةوثلاثة مباحث.وسلطتالديباجةالممهدةالضوء علىمفهومالجواب المسكتوشيوعهفي كتب الأدبوالأخبارونوادر الكلاموكيف يمكن النظر لهبوصفه وحدة حوارية تنبنيمنها المحادثة؟أما المبحث ا

... Show More
View Publication
Crossref
Publication Date
Thu Sep 08 2022
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Design and Analysis of a Spraying Robot
...Show More Authors

An indoor spraying robot is built in this research to solve numerous challenges associated with manual spraying. The mechanical, hardware and essential technologies used are all detailed and designed. The proposed spraying robot's conceptual design is split into two parts: hardware and software. The mechanical design, manufacturing, electrical, and electronics systems are described in the hardware part, while the control of the robot is described in the software section. This robot's kinematic and dynamic models were developed using three links that move in the x, y, and z directions. The robot was then designed using SolidWorks software to compute each connection's deflection and maximum stresses. The characteristics of the stepper moto

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Scopus (2)
Crossref (1)
Scopus Crossref
Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Oral And Dental Research
Ameloblastic Carcinoma of Mandible : A Case Report
...Show More Authors

Ameloblastic carcinoma is a rare malignant odontogenic tumor that is further classified into being primary or secondary arising from a preexisting benign ameloblastoma. It affects the mandible in two thirds of the patients. there is no standard treatment protocol for this lesion but radical surgical excision with or without radiotherapy is reported in the majority of cases. In this paper we present a case of a 60 year old female diagnosed with ameloblastic carcinoma of the mandible that was treated by radical resection of the mandible with selective neck dissection and postoperative radiotherapy.

View Publication
Crossref
Publication Date
Sun Jun 02 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Legal Sciences
Factors Affecting a Doctor’s Obligation to Inform
...Show More Authors

The physician's commitment to medical insight is affected by several factors that vary from patient to patient in terms of the nature of the disease, the severity of the disease, the age of the patient, and the purpose of undergoing medical intervention. There are circumstances surrounding patients that require the physician to reduce the insight towards them, by concealing medical information. The physician must firmly commit to expanding the scope of his vision to a wider extent than in normal medical work. Therefore, we will discuss in this regard the cases in which medical explanation is reduced and the cases that require confirmation in the following order.

View Publication
Publication Date
Wed Aug 27 2025
Journal Name
Al-salam Journal For Medical Science
Nanotechnology in Molecular Genetics: A literature review
...Show More Authors

Nanotechnology extends the limits of molecular diagnostics to the nanoscale. This study describes some of the details of how the body interacts with nanoparticles. Biological tests measuring the presence or activity of selected substances become quicker, more sensitive, and more flexible when certain nanoscale particles are put to work as tags. Particular emphasis is placed on the effects of surface changes on body-borne particles, their transport within the body, and the dose-response effect. Other considerations include the definition of "persistent" in the context of therapy, FDA scientific committees, and the need for nanoparticle tracking. In short, there have been dramatic changes in molecular and genetic research findings, as well as

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Tue Aug 02 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Legal Sciences
Expropriation of foreign investments - a comparative study
...Show More Authors

The right to property is one of the most prominent and most important of the fundamental rights that the individual enjoys, whether national or foreign, both of them have their own private property that may not be affected except for the requirements of the country's economic development or what is known as the public benefit, and the Iraqi legislator did not specify what is meant by the removal of foreign investment. Of the bilateral international agreements (BITS), as it determined its terms and methods, the properties of foreign investors may be expropriated in a direct and indirect way.

View Publication
Publication Date
Fri Sep 01 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
A Review of Interface Bonding Testing Techniques
...Show More Authors

Interface bonding between asphalt layers has been a topic of international investigation over the last thirty years. In this condition, a number of researchers have made their own techniques and used them to examine the characteristics of pavement interfaces. It is obvious that test findings won't always be comparable to the lack of a globally standard methodology for interface bonding. Also, several kinds of research have shown that factors like temperature, loading conditions, materials, and others have an impact on surface qualities. This study aims to solve this problem by thoroughly investigating interface bond testing that might serve as a basis for a uniform strategy. First, a general explanation of how

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref (3)
Crossref
Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
Ieee Access
6G Wireless Communications Networks: A Comprehensive Survey
...Show More Authors

View Publication
Scopus (413)
Crossref (402)
Scopus Clarivate Crossref
Publication Date
Sun Feb 02 2025
Journal Name
Engineering, Technology & Applied Science Research
Automated Glaucoma Detection Techniques: A Literature Review
...Show More Authors

Significant advances in the automated glaucoma detection techniques have been made through the employment of the Machine Learning (ML) and Deep Learning (DL) methods, an overview of which will be provided in this paper. What sets the current literature review apart is its exclusive focus on the aforementioned techniques for glaucoma detection using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) guidelines for filtering the selected papers. To achieve this, an advanced search was conducted in the Scopus database, specifically looking for research papers published in 2023, with the keywords "glaucoma detection", "machine learning", and "deep learning". Among the multiple found papers, the ones focusing

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Scopus (5)
Crossref (2)
Scopus Crossref
Publication Date
Fri Jul 21 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Design and Implementation of a Vlsm Simulator
...Show More Authors

Variable-Length Subnet Masks (VLSM), often referred to as "subnetting a subnet", is used to maximize addressing efficiency. The network administrator is able to use a long mask on networks with few hosts, and a short mask on subnets with many hosts. This addressing scheme allows growth and does not involve wasting addresses. VLSM gives a way of subnetting a network with
minimal loses of IP addresses for a specific range. Unfortunately, the network administrator has to perform several mathematical steps (or use charts) to get the required results from VLSM. In this paper, a simple graph simulator is proposed (using Visual Basic 6.0 Language) to perform all the required mathematical steps and to display the obtained required informatio

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref