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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 06 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Fabrication Mind And The Effect With American Dision –adopt
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Is the subject of the mind took a dimension in philosophy and psychology , and has cared psychologists this topic to a large extent , I started education institutions interest in the capabilities of intelligence since the early twentieth century , and the development of interest in them until he arrived to find Standards and Criteria to identify the degree IQ of any individual , and began to educational institutions interested in mental talent and talented .

The United States is the country chock first of these research projects , but they devoted all their attention on the wish talent mental and Gifted , until I got to the projects, the so-called time ( ( wars of the mind ) ) and projects Schools gifted

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Publication Date
Fri Apr 30 2021
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Otolarygological Manifestations of Patients with Confirmed Covid-19 Infection
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Background: the coronavirus leads to upper respiratory tract-associated manifestations like nasal congestion, sore throat, and smell disorder

Objectives: To reveal the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on otolaryngology symptoms using our daily medical practice.

Subject and Methods: A cross-sectional study that was carried on in the isolation wards at Al-Kindy and Al-Nu’man Teaching Hospitals during three months from the 1st of Jun. till the end of Aug. 2020. It included 1270 patients who were diagnosed with COVID-19 infection seen in the ENT consultation clinic and admitted to the isolation wards.

Results: Otolaryngological manifestations were shown

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 12 2021
Journal Name
Engineering, Technology & Applied Science Research
Production of Light Weight Foam Concrete with Sustainable Materials
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Most of the recent works related to the construction industry in Iraq are focused on investigating the validity of local raw materials as alternatives to the imported materials necessary for some practical applications, especially in thermal and sound insulation. This investigation includes the use of limestone dust as partial substitution of cement in combination with foam agent and silica fume to produce sustainable Lightweight Foam Concrete (LWFC). This study consists of two stages. In the first stage, trial mixes were performed to find the optimum dosage of foam agent. Limestone dust was used as a partial replacement for cement. Chemical analysis and fineness showed great similarity with cement. Many concrete mixes were prepared

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 10 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Personal intelligence relationship with the management agliation among teachers
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       Personal intelligence is thinking about an other person , understanding him, have sympathy and differentiation between people, and to appreciate their own point of view, with the sensitivity to their motives, behavior, and goals, so this intelligence involves dealing with a person or group of persons effectively and in normal or logical manner.

      Emotions management is to achieve emotional balance by controlling the emotions continuously, self disciplining, keeping away from excitement sources, and dealing with bad situations in constructive way to achieve the psychological stability .  

  • the study aims

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2019
Journal Name
Indian Journal Of Public Health Research & Development
Active Ocular involvement in iraqi Patients with Behçet's Disease
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Publication Date
Fri Oct 01 2010
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Collective C2 transitions in 32S with higher – energy configurations
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Collective C2 transitions in 32S are discussed for higher
energy configurations by comparing the calculations of transition
strength B(CJ  )with the experimental data. These configurations
are taken into account through a microscopic theory including
excitations from the core orbits and the model space orbits with nħω
excitations.
Excitations up to n=10 are considered. However n=6 seems to
be large enough for a sufficient convergence. The calculations
include the lowest seven 2+0 states of 32S.

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Publication Date
Thu Sep 26 2019
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Clinical Significance of Blastocystis Sp. among Children with Leukemia
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Background: Blastocystis spp. distributes world widely and the genus Blastocystis include many subtypes that are isolated from human intestinal tract. It is considered the most common parasite detected in human being.

Objectives: To evaluate the incidence of Blastocystis spp. among leukemic children, to find out its association with the presence of symptoms (diarrhea and abdominal pain), and to assess the efficacy of different staining methods in detection of Blastocystis spp. 

Type of the study: cross-sectional study.

Method: 103 children were enrolled in this study, 53 leukemic patients and 50 healthy con

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 01 2024
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
The Role of Testosterone Level in Women with Osteopenia
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There is substantial data supporting the importance of both endogenous and exogenous estrogen in maintaining reproductive health and preventing chronic disease, androgens in women's health are rarely discussed. This is one of the first researches to investigate correlates of blood testosterone concentrations in women with osteopenia, in anticipation of the growing interest in the role of androgens in women's health. A 65 volunteer women were enrolled in the current study, they were divided into two groups, 35 postmenopausal women with osteopenia were in the first group, and the second group contained 30 postmenopausal women without osteopenia as a control. Blood samples were collected from all participants and analyzed for testosterone l

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 01 2010
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Analysis of Concrete Flexural Members Reinforced with Fibre Polymer
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Publication Date
Mon Jan 16 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Medical And Health Studies
Is Mometasone Effective in Treating Otitis Media with Effusion?
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Otitis media with effusion (OME) is the long-term deposition of mucus in the middle ear cleft. It is the leading cause of childhood hearing loss and a common childhood infection. It can impair communication and life quality. OME's direct and indirect costs are also crucial. Improving OME care is crucial. This study examines intranasal mometasone's efficacy in treating otitis media with effusion. A clinical trial study was conducted during a period from January 2021 to June 2022. It included 80 patients suffering from otitis media with effusion bilaterally (160 ears) who had an intact tympanic membrane and tympanometry type B. These patients were included only if they had a hearing change or loss noted by the parents or by the patien

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