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jeasiq-1779
Using Markov chains to forecast the exports of Iraqi crude oil
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       In this paper, the topic of forecasting the changes in the value of Iraqi crude oil exports for the period from 2019 to 2025, using the Markov transitional series based on the data of the time series for the period from January 2011 to November 2018, is real data obtained from the published data of the Central Agency Of the Iraqi statistics and the Iraqi Ministry of Oil that the results reached indicate stability in the value of crude oil exports according to the data analyzed and listed in the annex to the research.

Keywords: Using Markov chains

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Measure and analyze the relationship between oil prices and the Iraqi dinar exchange rate
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In this research, we discussed and analyzed the relationship between oil prices and the U.S. dollar exchange rate in Iraq. The study adopted the descriptive analysis and econometrics analysis. The descriptive analysis refers to the rise (fall) in crude oil price lead to appreciate (depreciate) in the Iraqi dinar exchange rate, though the channel of the international reserves. The econometrics analysis is based on monthly data covered the period (December/2002 – December/2011), the unit root test, co-integration test, vector error correction model, and Granger causality test have been adopted in this research to check the existence and direction of this relationship. The results refer to the lon

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 28 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Environmental control of the oil industry extractive
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The research aims to prepare a report by the external auditor (Federal Office of Financial Supervision) for the control environment it is includes financial control, commitment and performance of the North Oil Company (extractive) according to the causes of pollution. The research problem it is not the Federal Office of Financial Supervision preparation a report on the things the environment include the prevent or reduction failure the administration of the causes of the pollution caused by oil mining industry by both bad planning or operational or related to efficient human resources as well as of technology to use and resulting from non-compliance local laws and instructions, as well as the inefficiency of spending on environme

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 20 2011
Journal Name
المؤتمر الدولي الثالث للاحصائيين العرب
Use a form ARX(p,q) to estimate time series for the Iraqi Economy
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Due to the lack of statistical researches in studying with existing (p) of Exogenous Input variables, and there contributed in time series phenomenon as a cause, yielding (q) of Output variables as a result in time series field, to form conceptual idea similar to the Classical Linear Regression that studies the relationship between dependent variable with explanatory variables. So highlight the importance of providing such research to a full analysis of this kind of phenomena important in consumer price inflation in Iraq. Were taken several variables influence and with a direct connection to the phenomenon and analyzed after treating the problem of outliers existence in the observations by (EM) approach, and expand the sample size (n=36) to

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
: Oil production, Depletion resources, Generations rights, Norway experience, Sustainable development.
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Abstract

      Oil is the most important natural resources in Iraq and represents the goal to others as well as Iraqi people. It is gift from God to all Iraqi people now and future. So we must maintain it and invest its revenue that achieve development in country and ensure the next generations' rights in it without external costs or negative externalities from extracted and invested it.

    The most problems that we attempt to solve by this research are the exhausted, environmental degradation and theft from next generation that produced with oil contracts between Iraq and foreign companies. From here was th

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Publication Date
Sat Aug 01 2020
Journal Name
Periodicals Of Engineering And Natural Sciences
A comparison of some forecasting models to forecast the number of old people in Iraqi retirement homes
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Statistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using BoxJenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2)

Publication Date
Thu Aug 13 2020
Journal Name
Periodicals Of Engineering And Natural Sciences
A comparison of some forecasting models to forecast the number of old people in Iraqi retirement homes
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Statistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using Box-Jenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2).

Scopus
Publication Date
Sat Oct 20 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Fluctuations of global crude oil prices and their effect on inflation and economic growth in Iraq " A standard study for the period 1988– 2015
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Abstract

That Iraq's dependence on the revenues of the oil product in financing its development programs and growth rates , Making the economy affected by external forces represented by fluctuations in crude oil prices in the global market, Which is directly reflected on the performance and efficiency of the Iraqi economy.

The study adopted its objectives to analyze the time series for the period (1988 - 2015) through the use of standard and statistical methods, Four standard models were estimated to reach those targets, Where the results of the stability test showed instability of most variables at their original level, But to achieve stability when taking the first differences, While the result

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Publication Date
Sat Apr 15 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Models for long range forecast to the dust storms
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In this research ,we will study the phenomenon of dust storms for all types
(Suspended dust , rising dust , dust storm) , and its relationship with some climate
variables (Temperature , rainfall ,wind speed , Relative humidity ) through
regression models to three different locations ( Kirkuk , Rutba , Diwaniya ) almost
covering Iraq area for the period (1981 – 2012) . Time series has been addressing the
phenomenon of storms and climate variables for the time period under study to
attain the best models for long range forcast to the dust storms.

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 30 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Measurements of Linear and Nonlinear Optical Properties for Iraqi Heavy Crude Oil Samples
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In this work, linear and nonlinear optical properties of two types of Iraqi heavy crude oil extracted from fields in southern Iraq were determined. The nonlinear optical properties were measured utilizing Z-scan technology with He-Ne laser at 632.8 nm. It was found that nonlinear refractive index (NLR) values for the Basra and Kut heavy crude oil samples are 6.34381×10-4  and 8.25108×10-4  cm2/mW, respectively, while those for the nonlinear absorption coefficient (NLA) are 2.68942×10-5  and 2.58874×10-5 , respectively. These results showed that the two samples with linear and nonlinear optical properties can be used in optics field applications as

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Publication Date
Tue May 30 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Crude Oil Price Forecasts Using Support Vector Regression and Technical Indicators
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Oil price forecasting has captured the attention of both researchers and academics because of the unique characteristics of crude oil prices and how they have a big impact on a lot of different parts of the economic value of the product. As a result, most academics use a lot of different ways to predict the future. On the other hand, researchers have a hard time because crude oil prices are very unpredictable and can be affected by many different things. This study uses support vector regression (SVR) with technical indicators as a feature to improve the prediction of the monthly West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price of crude oil. The root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) measur

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