The proposal of nonlinear models is one of the most important methods in time series analysis, which has a wide potential for predicting various phenomena, including physical, engineering and economic, by studying the characteristics of random disturbances in order to arrive at accurate predictions.

In this, the autoregressive model with exogenous variable was built using a threshold as the first method, using two proposed approaches that were used to determine the best cutting point of [the predictability forward (forecasting) and the predictability in the time series (prediction), through the threshold point indicator]. B-J seasonal models are used as a second method based on the principle of the two proposed approaches in dete

In this study water quality index (WQI) was calculated to classify the flowing water in the Tigris River in Baghdad city. GIS was used to develop colored water quality maps indicating the classification of the river for drinking water purposes. Water quality parameters including: Turbidity, pH, Alkalinity, Total hardness, Calcium, Magnesium, Iron, Chloride, Sulfate, Nitrite, Nitrate, Ammonia, Orthophosphate and Total dissolved solids were used for WQI determination. These parameters were recorded at the intakes of the WTPs in Baghdad for the period 2004 to 2011. The results from the annual average WQI analysis classified the Tigris River very poor to polluted at the north of Baghdad (Alkarkh WTP) while it was very poor to very polluted in t

        The study aims to show the correlation between inflation rates and the volume of private sector deposits in Jordan on one hand, and Amman Stock Exchange index for the period of 1999-2017. The study used the “Vector Auto Regression” model. Different types of tests are used such as: The “Johansen Co integration” test of joint integration, “Granger causality” test, the “Analysis of Variance Decomposition”, and “Impulse response Function” test.

The results showed there is a positive-one-way causal effect from Amman Stock Exchange index to inflation. Also, a one-way causal effect that comes from Amman Stock Exchange index to the size of private sec

That the nature of an important role in children's lives, Including offer them fun and freedom of thinking and capacity in the imagination. And its effective role of poets in general and especially apoet of childhood Selecting from diverse elements, And the rise to the level of human nature In order to enrich the child's imagination And the delivery of various ideas and information in a surprising. And are far from the decision-making and direct screed.this importance we set off For the study of poetic texts for children in Iraq During the research stage. Those texts in which the humanization began clearly,and our offer to these texts in style of detail and precision Not without expressing an my opinion during the research We finished th

Abstract

    The current research tested the interactive role between the workplace fun and the leadership virtuousness in the organizational brilliance, in a sample of the teaching staff at the University of Kufa reached (325 staff) out of (2069) professor. The research based on hypothesis model which reflect the research hypotheses from main variables presented  the leadership virtuousness (optimism, forgiveness, trust, compassion and  integrity) for moderating affect with the workplace fun (fun activities, Coworker socializing, manager support for fun). The organizational brilliance will increase in case of providing sub-variables which (leadership brilliance, service & innovation brillianc

Husbands’ violence towards their wives is one of the greatly important issues in social sciences. Accordingly, the current study aims at determining the levels of violence practiced by husbands towards their wives to propose a professional program from the perspective of the general practice of social work to overcome such a phenomenon. The study is descriptive in nature, where the researcher has used a comprehensive social survey method. To achieve the goal of the study, the researcher has prepared a questionnaire that consisted of two parts. The first part contains the primary data of the two sections, and the second contains (38) phrases distributed over four axes to measure the levels and types of violence among the sample’s memb

The research aims to identify the definitional framework for accounting violations and audit procedures in accordance with international auditing standards, preparing a proposed audit program to audit violations resulting from the transition to the unified accounting system in the research sample according to the relevant international auditing standards, as the proposed audit program was prepared according to International auditing standards in order to improve the auditor’s procedures in detecting accounting violations when auditing the financial statements of municipal departments. The research concluded the most important recommendations: The necessity of adopting the audit program proposed by the researcher, for the purpose of act

 This study attempts to address the importance of communicative digitization in the field of various arts for the sake of continuity of shopping and aesthetic, artistic and intellectual appreciation of artistic achievements by the recipient on various places of their residence in light of the COVID 19 crisis, and to highlight the importance of the plastic arts of the Iraqi painter exclusively and how it expresses in a contemporary way the environment or life reality in Iraq in light of this crisis. With all its implications affecting the life reality from various aspects and methods of its negative and positive employment. As for the research procedures, the researcher reviewed the research methodology represented by the descriptive ana

The goal of current research is marked "student services for the university student at the Faculty of Education for Girls at Baghdad University in light of the overall quality indicators)" to identify the relative importance of the availability of student services offered by the College of Education at the University of Baghdad, from the viewpoint of the students. The research was Aaguetdy followers researcher Find descriptive approach to suitability research topic and in order to achieve the purposes of research, the researcher designed questionnaire examined consisted of (18) items and has been questionnaire on arbitrators and experts to verify the validity and reliability that's been applied to the questionnaire on a group of students

The right of the patient to know the medical risks surrounding the medical intervention is one of the most prominent rights based on the principle of "physical safety", which has undergone several stages of development until it reached the development of the patient's independence in making medical decision without relying on the doctor, The patient's prior informed consent is informed of his / her medical condition. We will study this development in accordance with the French March 4, 2002 legislation on the rights of patients in the health system, whether it was earlier and later. We will highlight the development of the patient's right to "know the medical risks surrounding medical intervention" The legislation and its comparison with th