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jeasiq-1706
Analyzing current and future direction of non-oil primary balance: Case Study of Iraq Using Exponential Smoothing model

In recent years, non-oil primary balance indicator has been given considerable financial important in rentier state. It highly depends on this indicator to afford a clear and proper picture of public finance situation in term of appropriate and sustainability in these countries, due to it excludes the effect of oil- rental from compound of financial accounts which provide sufficient information to economic policy makers of how economy is able to create potential added value and then changes by eliminating one sided shades of economy. In Iraq, since, 2004, the deficit in value of this indicator has increased, due to almost complete dependence on the revenues of the oil to finance the budget and the obvious decline of the non-oil sectors contribution in the economy. By using Exponential Smoothing method for predicting the role of this indicator till 2025, It has been shown that the trend of this indicator will rise with the assumption that Iraq's economic and financial policy remains essentially unchanged. This research recommends, policy maker should adopt economy policy that reduce the non-oil deficit by 3% annually and allocating part of the oil revenues to support strategic projects in another sectors.

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 01 2010
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The study of the effect of the use of programming in the linear programming model (applied study)

The parametric programming considered as type of sensitivity analysis. In this research concerning to study the effect of the variations on linear programming model (objective function coefficients and right hand side) on the optimal solution. To determine the parameter (θ) value (-5≤ θ ≤5).Whereas the result، the objective function equal  zero and the decision variables are non basic، when the parameter (θ = -5).The objective function value increases when the parameter (θ= 5) and the decision variables are basic، with the except of X24, X34.Whenever the parameter value increase, the objectiv

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Predicting Social Security Fund compensation in Iraq using ARMAX Model

Time series have gained great importance and have been applied in a manner in the economic, financial, health and social fields and used in the analysis through studying the changes and forecasting the future of the phenomenon. One of the most important models of the black box is the "ARMAX" model, which is a mixed model consisting of self-regression with moving averages with external inputs. It consists of several stages, namely determining the rank of the model and the process of estimating the parameters of the model and then the prediction process to know the amount of compensation granted to workers in the future in order to fulfil the future obligations of the Fund. , And using the regular least squares method and the frequ

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 23 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison Bayes Estimators of Reliability in the Exponential Distribution

Abstract

           We produced a study in Estimation for Reliability of the Exponential distribution based on the Bayesian approach. These estimates are derived using Bayesian approaches. In the Bayesian approach, the parameter of the Exponential distribution is assumed to be random variable .we derived bayes estimators of reliability under four types when the prior distribution for the scale parameter of the Exponential distribution is: Inverse Chi-squar

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 03 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Use Dividend Discount Model , DDM in Stocks Valuation With Framework of Inflation: An Applied Study

The theme of this Study presents analysis and discuss to the "Share the framework for assessing inflation," a practical study in a sample of joint stock companies listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange for the years (2009-2013). To determine the extent of the disparity between the nominal value of shares (Nominal Value) before deducting inflation and the real value (Real Value) per share, after deducting inflation in the case of zero growth. The study relied on annual reports of the companies of the research sample of the Iraq Stock Exchange, as well as the Iraqi Securities Commission. Besides the annual reports issued by the Ministry of Planning, as well as annual reports and statistical bulletin issued by the Central Bank of Iraq. It is fra

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 10 2016
Journal Name
ألمؤتمر الدولي العلمي الخامس للاحصائيين العرب/ القاهرة
Proposition of Modified Genetic Algorithm to Estimate Additive Model by using Simulation

Often phenomena suffer from disturbances in their data as well as the difficulty of formulation, especially with a lack of clarity in the response, or the large number of essential differences plaguing the experimental units that have been taking this data from them. Thus emerged the need to include an estimation method implicit rating of these experimental units using the method of discrimination or create blocks for each item of these experimental units in the hope of controlling their responses and make it more homogeneous. Because of the development in the field of computers and taking the principle of the integration of sciences it has been found that modern algorithms used in the field of Computer Science genetic algorithm or ant colo

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Iraq after war and strategy of reconstruction : Analytical study in reality and future horizon

Abstract (Iraq post – war reconstruction strategy: analytical study in fact and future prospects.) There search aims at identifying the causes of internal instability in Iraq from the political ,economic , social and security aspects , to diagnose the imbalance and to work towards finding real solutions to this . The study also aims at identifying the reconstruction proposals to completely eliminate the organizationof the terrorist advocate, as well as to know. theproblem of research lies in the ability of Iraqi political elites to achieve internal stability and to employ reconstruction proposals at all levels . The hypothesis of the research lies in the equation that the process of building stability (political – economic)and (socia

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Measuring and analyzing the demand function for agricultural imports in Iraq for the period (1980-2012) in Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model(ARDL)

Abstract:

The issues related to foreign trade is a broad field for discussions and captures the interest of economists for their contribution to the process of economic development in the economies of the countries, especially developing ones. The imports of goods and services in foreign trade constitute an important part of the local by which the economy gets goods and services that the economy cannot produce because of the incompetent base of production. Further, the demand function of imports occupied a good deal of the attention of researchers in the field of international economics for which agricultural imports constitute an important part. The reason for the interest in the subject is due to its im

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
"Analyzing of the economic relationship between Dutch disease and the disruption of the Iraq economic structure "

The status of the semi total stoppage and non-use and waste of economic made studying and analyzing Dutch disease of high importance because it is a major cause in aggravation of this status which happened to the Iraqi economy in almost complete way and the relative big importance that oil source has and its domination on the largest percentage in the gross domestic product and exports that Iraqi economy is relying largely in funding the national budget made the concentration of the study on this subject an important and necessary within the important economic events that Iraqi economy witnessed after 2003 till 2016 to give a clear and an overall picture of the reality of the unilateral Iraqi economy under the status of semi tota

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Editorial: Current advances in anti-infective strategies

Infectious diseases pose a global challenge, necessitating an exploration of novel methodologies for diagnostics and treatments. Since the onset of the most recent pandemic, COVID-19, which was initially identified as a worldwide health crisis, numerous countries experienced profound disruptions in their healthcare systems. To combat the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, governments across the globe have mobilized significant efforts and resources to develop treatments and vaccines. Researchers have put forth a multitude of approaches for COVID-19 detection, treatment protocols, and vaccine development, including groundbreaking mRNA technology, among others.

This matter represents not only a scientific endeavor but also an essenti

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Publication Date
Thu Apr 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using Project Management Maturity Model to Evaluate Construction Sector -Organizations. Case Study at the Department of buildings - Karkh first

The education sector suffers from many problems, including the scarcity of schools that can absorb the increasing number of students in light of the increasing population growth rate, as some regions suffer from a lack of opening of new schools or the expansion of existing schools to increase their capacity so that attention is required. The research sought to identify the level of maturity of project management at the research site (Building Department in Al-Karkh I/ Ministry of Education) Being responsible for educational projects and their implementation and to know that, the ten areas of the knowledge guide to project management PMBOK have been adopted according to the PM3 model (one of the models of maturity

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