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jeasiq-1701
قياس وتحليل تقلبات أسعار النفط واتجاهات الإنفاق الحكومي على قطاعي الزراعة والصناعة في العراق للمدة ( 2006 _ 2016 )
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هدف الدراسة : تشخيص واقع العلاقة بين تقلبات أسعار النفط العالمية وانعكاسها على اتجاهات الإنفاق الحكومي على الزراعة والصناعة.

توصلت الدراسة : من خلال اختبار التكامل المشترك(ARDL)تبين انه لايوجد تكامل مشترك بين المتغيرين ,اي لا يوجد  تاثير للمتغير المستقل(اسعار النفط) على المتغير التابع(الانفاق على القطاع الزراعي), وذلك من خلال قيمة F المحتسبة والتي بلغت(1.906385) عند مستوى معنوية5% وهي اصغر من القيمة الجدولية للحد الادنى للمعلمة ذاتها والبالغة 3.62 عند مستوى معنوية5% وذلك بسبب ان اغلب تلك النفقات هي نفقات تشغيلية وهي غير مرنة وقليلة الاستجابة للتغيرات التي تطرأ على اسعار النفط حيث ان الانفاق الاستثماري على القطاع الزراعي لم يتجاوز 10% من مجموع الانفاق العام خلال مدة الدراسة. _ كان التخصيص لقطاع الصناعة من مجموع الانفاق العام متدني للغاية حيث بلغ متوسط نسبة هذا القطاع من الانفاق العام على مدار 11 عام (1.1%)مايعكس تدني مامخصص لهذا القطاع من مجموع الانفاق العام الامر الذي انعكس سلبا على مستوى الانتاج المحلي الذي هو اساسا لا يكاد يذكر.

اوصت الدراسة : النهوض بالقطاع الخاص وتطويره وتقديم الدعم والتسهيلات اللازمة للنهوض بهذا القطاع لتخفيف الضغط عن القطاع العام من خلال تشغيل الأيدي العاملة وبالتالي التقليل من الانفاق العام الذي اغلبه رواتب واجور للموظفين العاملين, وإعطاء أولوية للنفقات الاستثمارية من مجموع الإنفاق العام للقطاعات التي تسهم في بناء اقتصاد يلبي الطموح في النهوض بالاقتصاد, مثل القطاع الصناعي وذلك لاستيعاب الأعداد الهائلة من العاطلين ,الاهتمام بالقطاع الزراعي لما لهذا القطاع من اهمية بالغة في توفير السلع الغذائية اللازمة وضمان عدم استيراد هذه السلع من الخارج لما لهذه الاستيرادات من اثار سلبية على اقتصاد البلد.     

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Publication Date
Fri Apr 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
المستخلص تمثل إدارة التغيير التنظيمي، نهج يُتبع لتحويل او انتقال الفرد، او فريق العمل، او المنظمة من حالة راهنة الى حالة مستقبلية مخطط لها. فهي عملية تنظيمية تهدف إلى مساعدة اصحاب المصلحة للقبول ومن ثم تبني التغييرات في بيئة الاعمال الخاصة بهم. ويمكن
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Measurement and Analysis of Oil Price Fluctuations and Trends of Government Spending on the Security and Health Sectors in Iraq for the Period (2006-2016)
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Fri Oct 30 2020
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The paper discusses the lack of a uniform definition of politeness due to the constant tension between its universality and language specificity, and argues that some of the theoretical debate could be resolved if the distinction between politeness as a commonsense notion and politeness as a theoretical construct were clearly addressed and acknowledged in the research.

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