This research aims at forecasting the public budget of Iraq (surplus or deficit) for 2017 & 2018 through using two methods to forecast. First: forecast budget surplus or deficit by using IMF estimations average oil price per barrel adopted in the public federal budget amounted to USD 44 in 2017 & USD 46 in 2018; Second: forecast budget surplus or deficit by using MOO actual average oil price in global markets amounted to USD 66 in 2018 through applying Dynamic Model & Static Model. Then analyze the models to reach the best one. The research concluded that those estimations of dynamic forecasting model of budget surplus or deficit for 2017 & 2018 gives good reliable results for future periods when using the actual average oil price according to the Iraqi MOO estimates.
In this study, three strengthening techniques, near-surface mounted NSM-CRFP, NSM-CFRP with externally bonding EB-CFRP, and hybrid CFRP with circularization were studied to increase the seismic performance of existing RC slender columns under lateral loads. Experimentally, 1:3 scale RC models were studied and subjected to both lateral static load and seismic excitation. In the dynamic test, a model was subjected to El Centro 1940 NS earthquake excitation by using a shaking table. According to the test results, the strengthening techniques showed a significant increase in load carrying capacity, of about 86.6%, and 46.6%, for circularization and NSM-CFRP respectively, of the reference unstrengthened columns. On the other hand, column
... Show MoreWhen the depth of stressed soil is rather small, Plate Load Test (PLT) becomes the most efficient test to estimate the soil properties for design purposes. Among these properties, modulus of subgrade reaction is the most important one that usually employed in roads and concrete pavement design. Two methods are available to perform PLT: static and dynamic methods. Static PLT is usually adopted due to its simplicity and time saving to be performs in comparison with cyclic (dynamic) method. The two methods are described in ASTM standard.
In this paper the effect of the test method used in PLT in estimation of some mechanical soil properties was distinguished via a series of both test methods applied in a same site. The comparison of
... Show MoreThe research sought to demonstrate the effectiveness of monetary policy in banking stability by measuring the impact of monetary policy in the composite index of banking stability in Iraq for the period 2010/2017, as the stability of the financial system is one of the main objectives that the Central Bank is keen to achieve along with other objectives to ensure the performance Effective for all economic units, this is what prompted the central banks to give more attention in ensuring the safety, durability and stability of their financial systems, and the increasing interest by the Central Bank of Iraq in the subject of financial stability stems from its responsibility in ensuring a sound and stable financial system. Maintain it and mini
... Show MoreThe external shocks are one of the phenomena that the Iraqi economy is exposed to over a period of time. It is referred to as changes and events that come from outside the economic system and extends to many economic variables. However, foreign direct investment may be severely affected due to the extreme sensitivity to changes and local and international developments. This type of trauma and its characteristics to help manage and cope with external shocks, and in order to avoid the standard problems experienced by some models of simple linear regression, multi-linear regression models were used with variables Scientific and other dummy variables .
The study foun
... Show MoreNuclear structure of 29-34Mg isotopes toward neutron dripline have been investigated using shell model with Skyrme-Hartree–Fock calculations. In particular nuclear densities for proton, neutron, mass and charge densities with their corresponding rms radii, neutron skin thicknesses and inelastic electron scattering form factors are calculated for positive low-lying states. The deduced results are discussed for the transverse form factor and compared with the available experimental data. It has been confirmed that the combining shell model with Hartree-Fock mean field method with Skyrme interaction can accommodate very well the nuclear excitation properties and can reach a highly descriptive and predictive power when investiga
... Show MoreGross domestic product (GDP) is an important measure of the size of the economy's production. Economists use this term to determine the extent of decline and growth in the economies of countries. It is also used to determine the order of countries and compare them to each other. The research aims at describing and analyzing the GDP during the period from 1980 to 2015 and for the public and private sectors and then forecasting GDP in subsequent years until 2025. To achieve this goal, two methods were used: linear and nonlinear regression. The second method in the time series analysis of the Box-Jenkins models and the using of statistical package (Minitab17), (GRETLW32)) to extract the results, and then comparing the two methods, T
... Show MoreAbstract
Multivariate GARCH Models take several forms , the most important DCC dynamic conditional correlation, and CCC constant conditional correlation , The Purpose of this research is the Comparison for both Models.Using three financial time series which is a series of daily Iraqi dinar exchange rate indollar, Global daily Oil price in dollar and Global daily gold price in dollarfor the period from 01/01/2014 till 01/01/2016, Where it has been transferred to the three time series returns to get the Stationarity, some tests were conducted including Ljung-Box , JarqueBera , Multivariate ARCH to Returns Series and Residuals Series for both models In Comparison
... Show MoreIt is often needed in demographic research to modern statistical tools are flexible and convenient to keep up with the type of data available in Iraq in terms of the passage of the country far from periods of war and economic sanctions and instability of the security for a period of time . So, This research aims to propose the use of style nonparametric splines as a substitute for some of the compounds of analysis within the model Lee-Carter your appreciation rate for fertility detailed variable response in Iraq than the period (1977 - 2011) , and then predict for the period (2012-2031). This goal was achieved using a style nonparametric decomposition of singular value vehicles using the main deltoid , and then estimate the effect of time-s
... Show MoreIn this work, yttrium oxide particles (powder) reinforced AL-Si matrix composites (Y2O3/Al-Si) and Chromium oxide particles reinforced AL-Si matrix composites (Cr2O3/AL-Si) were prepared by direct squeeze casting. The volume percentages of yttrium oxide used are (4, 8.1, 12.1, 16.1 vol %) and the volume percentages of the chromium oxide particles used are (3.1, 6.3, 9.4, 12.5 vol. %). The parameters affecting the preparation of Y2O3/Al-Si and Cr2O3/AL-Si composites by direct squeeze casting process were studied. The molten Al-Si alloy with yttrium oxide particles or with chromium oxide particles was stirred again using an electrical stirrer at speed 500 rpm and the molten alloy was poured into the squeeze die cavity. Th
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