The Purpose of this research is a comparison between two types of multivariate GARCH models BEKK and DVECH to forecast using financial time series which are the series of daily Iraqi dinar exchange rate with dollar, the global daily of Oil price with dollar and the global daily of gold price with dollar for the period from 01/01/2014 till 01/01/2016.The estimation, testing and forecasting process has been computed through the program RATS. Three time series have been transferred to the three asset returns to get the Stationarity, some tests were conducted including Ljung- Box, Multivariate Q and Multivariate ARCH to Returns Series and Residuals Series for both models with comparison between the estimation and forecasting models based on the criterion, mean Squared error (MSE), compared to the Suitability of these two models of the nature of the data and the ability to Capture the volatility. We concluded that BEKK is better than DVECH in forecasting from the model.
The use of Bayesian approach has the promise of features indicative of regression analysis model classification tree to take advantage of the above information by, and ensemble trees for explanatory variables are all together and at every stage on the other. In addition to obtaining the subsequent information at each node in the construction of these classification tree. Although bayesian estimates is generally accurate, but it seems that the logistic model is still a good competitor in the field of binary responses through its flexibility and mathematical representation. So is the use of three research methods data processing is carried out, namely: logistic model, and model classification regression tree, and bayesian regression tree mode
... Show MoreBackground: Pemphigus vulgaris (PV) is an autoimmune vesiculobullous mucocutaneous disease with life-threatening consequences. Rituximab (RTX) has recently emerged as an effective treatment for PV. Objectives: This study aims to determine changes in neutrophil and platelet counts for PV patients treated with RTX or corticosteroids combined with Imuran (azathioprine). Materials and Methods: The present cross-sectional study was conducted in the Department of Dermatology at Baghdad Teaching Hospital, Baghdad, Iraq. Thirty PV patients received two types of treatment: 15 patients were administered RTX and 15 patients took corticosteroids with Imuran (azathioprine). Neutrophil and platelet counts were detected at the hospital laboratory. Results
... Show MoreResearch aimed to explore the Application Effect of the Conflict Management Strategies by the managements to solve conflict between and inside the conflicted parties within (IGEC) to increase the productivity of the workers. To collect data, 110 questioners had been distributed among managers and heads of departments of all managerial levels, 102 answered questioners regained, 5 of them were disqualify for statistical analytic, only 97 were taking in consideration for statistical analysis presenting 93% of the retained number.
SPSS Program supported with a group of statistical tools, had been used for analysis purposes such as Kronbach Alpha test to assure the validity & stability of the t
... Show MoreIn the analysis of multiple linear regression, the problem of multicollinearity and auto-correlation drew the attention of many researchers, and given the appearance of these two problems together and their bad effect on the estimation, some of the researchers found new methods to address these two problems together at the same time. In this research a comparison for the performance of the Principal Components Two Parameter estimator (PCTP) and The (r-k) class estimator and the r-(k,d) class estimator by conducting a simulation study and through the results and under the mean square error (MSE) criterion to find the best way to address the two problems together. The results showed that the r-(k,d) class estimator is the best esti
... Show MoreThe present study has examined the spatiotemporal varieties of the demographics of the Shatt Al-Arab River fishes and their relation to some ecological components. The aim is to forecast these groups in the unexplored parts of the waterway with an emphasis on environmental indices of diversity. Three sites in the river were selected as an observation and study of these species, which lasted from March 2019 to February 2020, the study dealt with factors affecting fishes, as Water Temperature (WT), Dissolved Oxygen (DO), Potential Hydrogen Ion (pH), Salinity (Sal), and Transparency (Tra). Gill nets, cast nets, hooks, and hand nets were adopted to collecting fish. The results indicated that the fish population comprises 60 species represent
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The prophet said that it anybody burdened any of the people or the book more than they could endure he would ben his opponent until the day of judgment.
-under the rightly guided caliphs the Christians had much freedom .this is shown by a letter attributed to ishu-yab III. The Nestorian catholics.
-The third caliph,Uthman favoured the Christians either because of the spcial skills or abilities which they possessed or through the imfluence of his Christian wife Na'ila.
-Under the early Umayyade,the christiansins the Isalamic umma had as much freedom as they had previously enjoyed under the best of their Christians governments because they restorted their churches and appointed many Christians to the
... Show MoreAdvanced strategies for production forecasting, operational optimization, and decision-making enhancement have been employed through reservoir management and machine learning (ML) techniques. A hybrid model is established to predict future gas output in a gas reservoir through historical production data, including reservoir pressure, cumulative gas production, and cumulative water production for 67 months. The procedure starts with data preprocessing and applies seasonal exponential smoothing (SES) to capture seasonality and trends in production data, while an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) captures complicated spatiotemporal connections. The history replication in the models is quantified for accuracy through metric keys such as m
... Show MoreIn this paper, wavelets were used to study the multivariate fractional Brownian motion through the deviations of the random process to find an efficient estimation of Hurst exponent. The results of simulations experiments were shown that the performance of the proposed estimator was efficient. The estimation process was made by taking advantage of the detail coefficients stationarity from the wavelet transform, as the variance of this coefficient showed the power-low behavior. We use two wavelet filters (Haar and db5) to manage minimizing the mean square error of the model.
Ti6Al4V alloy is widely used in aerospace and medical applications. It is classified as a difficult to machine material due to its low thermal conductivity and high chemical reactivity. In this study, hybrid intelligent models have been developed to predict surface roughness when end milling Ti6Al4V alloy with a Physical Vapor Deposition PVD coated tool under dry cutting conditions. Back propagation neural network (BPNN) has been hybridized with two heuristic optimization techniques, namely: gravitational search algorithm (GSA) and genetic algorithm (GA). Taguchi method was used with an L27 orthogonal array to generate 27 experiment runs. Design expert software was used to do analysis of variances (ANOVA). The experimental data were
... Show MoreThe aim of the research is to identify to what extent to which Malcolm Baldrige standards of total quality are applied in the after-sales services of a private sector company for electrical appliances, from the point of view of administrative leaders, in it. To achieve this aim a questionnaire has been used to measure the degree of application of Malcolm’s seven criteria for total quality, namely: (leadership, strategic planning, focus on the customer, measurement and analysis and knowledge management, focus in human resource and operation management and results of the company’s management), the research found that the company achieved a good level of the standard from the de
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