The Purpose of this research is a comparison between two types of multivariate GARCH models BEKK and DVECH to forecast using financial time series which are the series of daily Iraqi dinar exchange rate with dollar, the global daily of Oil price with dollar and the global daily of gold price with dollar for the period from 01/01/2014 till 01/01/2016.The estimation, testing and forecasting process has been computed through the program RATS. Three time series have been transferred to the three asset returns to get the Stationarity, some tests were conducted including Ljung- Box, Multivariate Q and Multivariate ARCH to Returns Series and Residuals Series for both models with comparison between the estimation and forecasting models based on the criterion, mean Squared error (MSE), compared to the Suitability of these two models of the nature of the data and the ability to Capture the volatility. We concluded that BEKK is better than DVECH in forecasting from the model.
This research introduce a study with application on Principal Component Regression obtained from some of the explainatory variables to limitate Multicollinearity problem among these variables and gain staibilty in their estimations more than those which yield from Ordinary Least Squares. But the cost that we pay in the other hand losing a little power of the estimation of the predictive regression function in explaining the essential variations. A suggested numerical formula has been proposed and applied by the researchers as optimal solution, and vererifing the its efficiency by a program written by the researchers themselves for this porpuse through some creterions: Cumulative Percentage Variance, Coefficient of Determination, Variance
... Show MoreIn this paper, the process of comparison between the tree regression model and the negative binomial regression. As these models included two types of statistical methods represented by the first type "non parameter statistic" which is the tree regression that aims to divide the data set into subgroups, and the second type is the "parameter statistic" of negative binomial regression, which is usually used when dealing with medical data, especially when dealing with large sample sizes. Comparison of these methods according to the average mean squares error (MSE) and using the simulation of the experiment and taking different sample
... Show MoreThis research aims to address the most recent international standard in the field of insurance contracts, the International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS17) and the theoretical framework of the standard in addition to the most important characteristics of the standard (IFRS17), as well as to identify the paragraphs of the modern standard, with the challenges its application in general and the use of the approach (inputs - operations - outputs) to present the challenges of its application in the Iraqi environment and specifically in the environment of Iraqi insurance sector companies (government), the research is based on the main premise that the identification of the requirements for the application of the International Fin
... Show MoreResearch on geopolitical and geopolitical studies relates to a range of sciences that can be called auxiliary sciences, such as political science, international relations in particular, and history, but their focus is rarely on science and ethnography
That the issues and problems of the world today has become so large and complex that does not allow a specific field or knowledge to solve one of the need for the newly known knowledge integration (geopolitics and geopolitics) in particular to move towards cognitive integration to understand many of the problems and global issues that faced The importance of this study comes to clarify the relationship between Darwinism, geopolitics and geopolitics. The geopolitics in modern terms d
... Show MoreThe analysis of time series considers one of the mathematical and statistical methods in explanation of the nature phenomena and its manner in a specific time period.
Because the studying of time series can get by building, analysis the models and then forecasting gives the priority for the practicing in different fields, therefore the identification and selection of the model is of great importance in spite of its difficulties.
The selection of a standard methods has the ability for estimation the errors in the estimated the parameters for the model, and there will be a balance between the suitability and the simplicity of the model.
In the analysis of d
... Show MoreThe study aims at investigating the effectiveness of the Virtual Library Technology, in developing the achievement of the English Language Skills in the Center of Development and Continuous Education, in comparison with the individual learning via personal computer to investigate the students' attitude towards the use of both approaches. The population of the study includes the participants in the English Language course arranged in the Center. The sample includes 60 students who were randomly chosen from the whole population (participants in English Courses for the year 2009-2010). The sample is randomly chosen and divided into two experimental groups. The first group has learned through classroom technology; while the other group has l
... Show More<span>Dust is a common cause of health risks and also a cause of climate change, one of the most threatening problems to humans. In the recent decade, climate change in Iraq, typified by increased droughts and deserts, has generated numerous environmental issues. This study forecasts dust in five central Iraqi districts using machine learning and five regression algorithm supervised learning system framework. It was assessed using an Iraqi meteorological organization and seismology (IMOS) dataset. Simulation results show that the gradient boosting regressor (GBR) has a mean square error of 8.345 and a total accuracy ratio of 91.65%. Moreover, the results show that the decision tree (DT), where the mean square error is 8.965, c
... Show MorePassive optical network (PON) is a point to multipoint, bidirectional, high rate optical network for data communication. Different standards of PONs are being implemented, first of all PON was ATM PON (APON) which evolved in Broadband PON (BPON). The two major types are Ethernet PON (EPON) and Gigabit passive optical network (GPON). PON with these different standards is called xPON. To have an efficient performance for the last two standards of PON, some important issues will considered. In our work we will integrate a network with different queuing models such M/M/1 and M/M/m model. After analyzing IPACT as a DBA scheme for this integrated network, we modulate cycle time, traffic load, throughput, utilization and overall delay
... Show MoreThis research shows the problem of the economic development of underdeveloped countries in an unconventional way, as these papers explain the problems of the economic development. This research not only reviews the problems, but it illustrates them in a philosophical way, basis of the data of modernity, this mean it is a process of connecting between the absence of the modernity values and the failure of development in underdeveloped countries. The Search follows the descriptive approach to get to the goal of search by four main axes. The first axis includes clarifying modernity and its principles, the second axis includes clarifying the economic development , the third axis includes the features of the mod
... Show MoreThe media: ((Providing people with the right news, audio information, and constant facts that help them form a correct opinion in an incident or a problem, this opinion gives an objective expression of the mentality of the audience, their trends and tendencies). The German scientist Autogroot defines it as "the objective expression of the mentality of the audience, their spirit, their tendencies, and their trends at the same time." Whereas for "Aristotle", (Language) is a specific verbal system created as a result of an agreement between the members of the human group somewhere )). It is a symbol of thought, and a difference between humans and animals. Pronunciation and thought for “Aristotle” are intertwined: without pro
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