The Purpose of this research is a comparison between two types of multivariate GARCH models BEKK and DVECH to forecast using financial time series which are the series of daily Iraqi dinar exchange rate with dollar, the global daily of Oil price with dollar and the global daily of gold price with dollar for the period from 01/01/2014 till 01/01/2016.The estimation, testing and forecasting process has been computed through the program RATS. Three time series have been transferred to the three asset returns to get the Stationarity, some tests were conducted including Ljung- Box, Multivariate Q and Multivariate ARCH to Returns Series and Residuals Series for both models with comparison between the estimation and forecasting models based on the criterion, mean Squared error (MSE), compared to the Suitability of these two models of the nature of the data and the ability to Capture the volatility. We concluded that BEKK is better than DVECH in forecasting from the model.
Infrastructure, especially wastewater projects, plays an important role in the life of residential communities. Due to the increasing population growth, there is also a significant increase in residential and commercial facilities. This research aims to develop two models for predicting the cost and time of wastewater projects according to independent variables affecting them. These variables have been determined through a questionnaire distributed to 20 projects under construction in Al-Kut City/ Wasit Governorate/Iraq. The researcher used artificial neural network technology to develop the models. The results showed that the coefficient of correlation R between actual and predicted values were 99.4% and 99 %, MAPE was
... Show MoreAnalysis the economic and financial phenomena and other requires to build the appropriate model, which represents the causal relations between factors. The operation building of the model depends on Imaging conditions and factors surrounding an in mathematical formula and the Researchers target to build that formula appropriately. Classical linear regression models are an important statistical tool, but used in a limited way, where is assumed that the relationship between the variables illustrations and response variables identifiable. To expand the representation of relationships between variables that represent the phenomenon under discussion we used Varying Coefficient Models
... Show MoreThe economic development and intense competition may make economic units neglected the social aspect as a service workers and the environment, the community and focus on the economic side and achieve profitability only, which puts it in a position of accountability of trade unions and bodies, environment, health, civil society organizations and the focus of many studies accounting in order to clarify social activities and disclosed in the financial statements, increasing pressure from multiple parties calling for governments to issue laws and regulations oblige economic units to disclose complete and accurate information in a timely manner for all social activities and be subj
... Show MoreThis paper examines the gaps in Lebanese building law as well as the exploitation of contractors, stakeholders, and residents in order to make illegal profits at the expense of The Shape of urban agglomerations and their expansion in cities and rural areas, which is contrary to the principles of sustainable land development. It also emphasizes the amplification of the factors of vertical and horizontal building investments in the implementation of buildings contrary to the license, as well as the burden that this places on the city's resulting infrastructure and ability to absorb the activities and needs of its residents. The study then presents recommendations in the process of transformation in the technique of planning and application
... Show MoreThe grey system model GM(1,1) is the model of the prediction of the time series and the basis of the grey theory. This research presents the methods for estimating parameters of the grey model GM(1,1) is the accumulative method (ACC), the exponential method (EXP), modified exponential method (Mod EXP) and the Particle Swarm Optimization method (PSO). These methods were compared based on the Mean square error (MSE) and the Mean Absolute percentage error (MAPE) as a basis comparator and the simulation method was adopted for the best of the four methods, The best method was obtained and then applied to real data. This data represents the consumption rate of two types of oils a heavy fuel (HFO) and diesel fuel (D.O) and the use of tests to conf
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In 2020 one of the researchers in this paper, in his first research, tried to find out the Modified Weighted Pareto Distribution of Type I by using the Azzalini method for weighted distributions, which contain three parameters, two of them for scale while the third for shape.This research compared the distribution with two other distributions from the same family; the Standard Pareto Distribution of Type I and the Generalized Pareto Distribution by using the Maximum likelihood estimator which was derived by the researchers for Modified Weighted Pareto Distribution of Type I, then the Mont Carlo method was used–that is one of the simulation manners for generating random samples data in different sizes ( n= 10,30,50), and in di
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