The Purpose of this research is a comparison between two types of multivariate GARCH models BEKK and DVECH to forecast using financial time series which are the series of daily Iraqi dinar exchange rate with dollar, the global daily of Oil price with dollar and the global daily of gold price with dollar for the period from 01/01/2014 till 01/01/2016.The estimation, testing and forecasting process has been computed through the program RATS. Three time series have been transferred to the three asset returns to get the Stationarity, some tests were conducted including Ljung- Box, Multivariate Q and Multivariate ARCH to Returns Series and Residuals Series for both models with comparison between the estimation and forecasting models based on the criterion, mean Squared error (MSE), compared to the Suitability of these two models of the nature of the data and the ability to Capture the volatility. We concluded that BEKK is better than DVECH in forecasting from the model.
Abstract
The multiple linear regression model of the important regression models used in the analysis for different fields of science Such as business, economics, medicine and social sciences high in data has undesirable effects on analysis results . The multicollinearity is a major problem in multiple linear regression. In its simplest state, it leads to the departure of the model parameter that is capable of its scientific properties, Also there is an important problem in regression analysis is the presence of high leverage points in the data have undesirable effects on the results of the analysis , In this research , we present some of
... Show MoreStatistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using BoxJenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2)
Statistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using Box-Jenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2).
This research discusses the rehabilitation of heritage markets in the historical centers of Islamic Arab cities and their use in the field of cultural tourism as one of the most important tourist attractions and the subsequent revival of the national economy in addition to preserving the urban heritage as these markets part of the historical centers of cities. The research also discusses the preservation of the continuity of heritage markets as a product of cultural heritage value within an integrated framework to preserve the urban heritage in the historic centers of cities. The study then reviews a number of experiences of Arab and Islamic countries in the field of preserving and rehabilitating heritage markets, which qualify them to b
... Show MoreThis research deals with a part of our heritage and Arab culture, which is the poetry of contemporary Islamic poets, especially the poetry that was said in the mother in contemporary Islamic poetry, when extrapolating the offices of some contemporary Islamic poets found a clear presence of the mother, and during the search for the subject or its I found that the subject did not receive research and study, although the bureaus of contemporary Islamic poets included in it a huge amount of verses in which they stood at the mother Pharthua, and expressed their feelings and emotions towards them, and accordingly this research tagged (mother in contemporary Islamic poetry _ Dr Artistic models in models of contemporary Islamic poetry) to stand
... Show MoreRecently, wireless communication environments with high speeds and low complexity have become increasingly essential. Free-space optics (FSO) has emerged as a promising solution for providing direct connections between devices in such high-spectrum wireless setups. However, FSO communications are susceptible to weather-induced signal fluctuations, leading to fading and signal weakness at the receiver. To mitigate the effects of these challenges, several mathematical models have been proposed to describe the transition from weak to strong atmospheric turbulence, including Rayleigh, lognormal, Málaga, Nakagami-m, K-distribution, Weibull, Negative-Exponential, Inverse-Gaussian, G-G, and Fisher-Snedecor F distributions. This paper extensive
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The research draws its importance from identifying the methods of profit management in misleading the financial statements, which in turn is reflected in the decisions of the authorities that relied on these reports, and then the models that help in detecting those methods used by the auditors. Risks. The index (margin of excess cash) was used to detect profit management practices on a group of banks listed in the Iraqi market for securities and the number of (23) banks, including (12) commercial bank and (11) Islamic bank and the results were compared to commercial banks with Islamic banks.((The research started from the hypothesis that the use of the (excess cash margin) model in the banking sector reveals the management
... Show Moreيمثل الأخذ بالنظام الفيدرالي أطاراً تنظيمياً لشكل الدولة و مرحلة تحول مهمة في بنية الدولة العامة في مختلف مجالاتها، فالانتقال من المركزية في أدارة الشؤون العامة للدولة الى النمط الفيدرالي يمثل تحولا بنيوياً وسيكولوجياً ،حيث يكون هنالك توزيع مكاني - عمودي للسلطة والثروة بين الوحدات المكونة للدولة بشكل يختلف كليا عن الحالة المركزية، ونجد صور تنظيمية عديدة تتأسس ضمن اطار الفيدرالية العام ،
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This study aims at identifying the impact of the application of IFRS 15 "Revenue from contracts with customers on the quality of financial reporting, through application to faculty members in the accounting departments of Iraqi universities and auditors. The problem of the study was the multiplicity of accounting rules and standards Which deals with the issues of revenue recognition , as well as the lack of consistency of most of them with the common framework of financial accounting, which results in low quality of financial reporting in the current financial statements, where the formulation of one hypothesis was the lack of relationship of significant significance The application of IFRS 15 "Recognition of rev
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