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تأثير عرض النقود وسعر الصرف على التضخم في الاقتصاد الليبي
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تهدف هذه الدراسة إلى محاولة التعرف على اثر كل من عرض النقود وسعر الصرف على معدل التضخم في الاقتصاد الليبي خلال الفترة 1990-2008. ولتحقيق ذلك فقد تم اختيار الرقم القياسي لأسعار المستهلك ليمثل معدل التضخم، وعرض النقود بالمفهوم الواسع  ممثلا لعرض النقود، وسعر صرف الدينار الليبي مقابل الدولار الأمريكي ممثلا لسعر الصرف وقد أخضعت المتغيرات لاختبار السكون والذي تشير نتائجه إلى أن التضخم وعرض النقود وسعر الصرف غير ساكنة في مستوياتها، وان صفة السكون تتحقق فقط عند فرقها الثالث وعليه انتقلت الدراسة إلى اختبار التكامل المشترك بين المتغيرات الثلاث والذي أشارت نتائجه إلى وجود سببية على الأقل في اتجاه واحد، وبهذا فان النموذج الأكثر ملائمة لتقدير العلاقة بين أي متغيرات تتصف بخاصية التكامل المشترك هو نموذج تصحيح الخطأ، ثم انتقلت الدراسة لاختبار العلاقة السببية بين التضخم وكل من عرض النقود بالمعنى الواسع وسعر الصرف الدينار الليبي مقابل الدولار الأمريكي.  

وقد أوضح اختبار السببية المبني على نموذج تصحيح الخطأ وجود سببية ذات اتجاهين وذلك بين متغيري سعر الصرف ومعدل التضخم (CPI كما أن اختبار السببية دل على وجود علاقة سببية ذات اتجاه واحد وذلك من عرض النقود بمفهومه الواسع (MS2) إلى كلا من الرقم القياسي لأسعار المستهلك (CPI) ممثلا لمعدل التضخم وسعر صرف الدينار الليبي مقابل الدولار الأمريكي (E وبناء على نتيجة اختبارات السببية تستنتج الدراسة أن :

التغيرات في نمو عرض النقود بمفهومه الواسع (MS2) وكذلك التغيرات في نمو سعر صرف الدينار الليبي مقوما بالدولار الأمريكي (خفض قيمته) تساعد في تفسير التغيرات في نمو معدل التضخم في الأجلين القصير والطويل.  

 

 

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