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نحو رؤيا استراتيجية لبناء القدرة التنافسية للاقتصاد والصناعة في العراق
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استهدفت هذه الدراسة تحليل واقع الاقتصاد العراقي على خلفية تحليل القدرة التنافسية بما يفضي الى وضع ملامح عامة لإستراتيجية بناء للقدرة التنافسية الوطنية للنهوض بالواقع الاقتصادي. وقد افترضت الدراسة ان الاقتصاد العراقي يعاني من اخفاقات شديدة في الاداء لا تتصل بطبيعته ولاتعتبر سمة اصيلة من سماته  بل هي ظرفية وطارئة رغم وجودها منذ عقود.

ان حالة الوهن المرافق للفعاليات الاقتصادية تتصل بغياب رؤية استراتيجية طويلة الاجل للنهوض بهذه الفعالية لمستويات تنافسية متماسكة العناصر والمرتكزات القائمة عليها، حيث اصبحت نظرية التجارة الحرة الكلاسيكية وهما بكل المقاييس لعدم تحقق الفرض الأساسي الذي تقوم عليه النظرية
(المنافسة التامة) لأسباب عديدة لعل اهمها المتغير التكنولوجي العسير على كثير من الدول اضافة لتكلفة الاستثمار العالية.

وبالتالي وفي ظل اقتصاد هذا السوق غير الكامل تلعب السياسات دورا كبيرا في تحديد القدرة التنافسية والتغلب على اخفاقات السوق وتحقيق التوازن من خلال مؤشرات وركائز تقسم الى ثلاث مراحل، تتصل الاولى بالمتطلبات الاساسية ثم مرحلة الكفاءة وصولا الى مرحلة المعرفة والابتكار، وكل ذلك في ظل سلوك يتحكم بالاستثمار الاجنبي المباشر لتنمية القدرات الوطنية والتناغم مع الاستراتيجات التنموية.

لقد شهدت العقود الخمسة المنصرمة تشوها مستمرا في هيكل الاقتصاد العراقي بسبب الاحداث السياسية والعسكرية التي تخللتها فضلا عن تداعيات المرض الهولندي والسياسات الاقتصادية الخاطئة التي تبنتها الحكومات المتعاقبة.

وفي محاولة مبسطة فقد استطلعت الدراسة اراء عينة صغيرة من وحدات الاعمال في العراق
(باستثناء كردستان) حول 12 مرتكزا للتنافسية وظهر ان الاقتصاد العراقي يعاني من اخفاق عام في التنافسية بنسبة 60% . وظهر ان اهم تلك الاخفاقات كامنة في معالجة الفساد والاستقرار السياسي والامني وولاء قوة العمل ووضوح الانظمة الضريبية اضافة الى فشل باقي المرتكزات.

ان المحاولات الحالية للحكومة لا زالت متواضعة وهي جذب الاستثمارات الاجنبية من خلال قانون الاستثمار وبعض الاتفاقات الاستثمارية الواعدة. الا ان ما ينبغي فعله يرتكز على اصلاح هيكل القرار الاستراتيجي المفضي الى استقرار سياسي وامني طويل الاجل وراسخ كشرط للإصلاح الاقتصادي الذي يؤطر استراتيجية للقدرة التنافسية تتخذ الملامح التالية:

المرحلة الابتدائية : بناء فريق عمل التنافسية وبناء المرصد الوطني للتنافسية.

مرحلة الانطلاق:

1) نشر مفهوم التنافسية الشامل بين مختلف شرائح قطاع الاعمال وبناء القدرة الوطنية.

2) قياس مؤشرات تنافسية الاقصاد العراقي ومقارنتها مع  مجموعة الدول الاخرى. 

3) المساعدة على تعزيز القدرة التنافسية لقطاع الاعمال العراقي عبر وضع منهجية تحليل السلسلة        التكنولوجية بالاعتماد على البحث الميداني والبحث المكتبي.

4) صياغة السياسات القطاعية بناءا على التحليل المذكور ودفعها لمتخذي القرار بهدف تعزيز ودعم      آلية جذب الاستثمارات. 

 

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Fri Dec 01 2017
Journal Name
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A comparison between Bayesian Method and Full Maximum Likelihood to estimate Poisson regression model hierarchy and its application to the maternal deaths in Baghdad
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Abstract:

 This research aims to compare Bayesian Method and Full Maximum Likelihood to estimate hierarchical Poisson regression model.

The comparison was done by  simulation  using different sample sizes (n = 30, 60, 120) and different Frequencies (r = 1000, 5000) for the experiments as was the adoption of the  Mean Square Error to compare the preference estimation methods and then choose the best way to appreciate model and concluded that hierarchical Poisson regression model that has been appreciated Full Maximum Likelihood Full Maximum Likelihood  with sample size  (n = 30) is the best to represent the maternal mortality data after it has been reliance value param

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Sun Jun 02 2019
Journal Name
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The features of the linguistic and cultural component in teaching Russian language to Arab students: Особенности лингвокультурологической составляющей в преподавании русского языка арабским учащимся
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The author addresses the issue of the linguoculturological component in the process of teaching Russian to Arabic students, focuses on the peculiarities of the national character of students. The author also refers to the long-standing ties of Russian and Arab cultures, thus emphasizing the relevance of this aspect for the current state and situation of the Russian language in Arab countries.

Автор статьи обращается к вопросу лингвокультурологической составляющей в процессе преподавания русского языка арабским студентам, останавливается на особенностях национального хара

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Argumentation is not a contemporary, yet a deep rooted intellectual phenomenon dates back to Romans and Greeks times. The argumentative elements ,the author is trying to convey to the reader, are  linguistic procedures aim at persuading and being persuaded of what is true. The present study traces, through Camus’ novel The plague, the best method to construct argumentative techniques used to express the author’s deep philosophies.

Résumé        

          L’argumentation n’est pas un phénomène intellectuel nouveau, ses origines reviennent aux savants grecs et romains. Elle est une act

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