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jeasiq-1439
Using Time Series Methods To Modify The Seasonal Variations in the Consumer Price Index
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     As is  known that the consumer price index (CPI) is one of the most important  price indices because of its direct effect on the welfare of the individual and his living.

       We have been address the problem of Strongly  seasonal  commodities in calculating  (CPI) and identifying some of the solution.

   We have  used an actual data  for a set of commodities (including strongly seasonal commodities) to calculate the index price by using (Annual Basket With Carry Forward Prices method) . Although this method can be successfully used in the context of seasonal  commodities  the  index  does not  get  rid  of  the  tremendous  season  fluctuations  .       

     In order to use (CPI) in  measuring  the general inflation and monthly or quarterly comparison ,we must  first  decompose the seasonal component and eliminate  its effect on the (CPI) series to get  a seasonal adjusted series of (CPI) .

     Many statistical methods are used to analysis (CPI) series, and one of these methods is the method of time series that takes into account the seasonal variations in the study of phenomena.

test to  Ljung-Box  We have used Box-Jenkens method in models building and then test the modesl ,also we have found the seasonal adjusted series by using time series  method

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 20 2019
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Using Backpropagation to Predict Drought Factor in Keetch-Byram Drought Index
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Forest fires continue to rise during the dry season and they are difficult to stop. In this case, high temperatures in the dry season can cause an increase in drought index that could potentially burn the forest every time. Thus, the government should conduct surveillance throughout the dry season. Continuous surveillance without the focus on a particular time becomes ineffective and inefficient because of preventive measures carried out without the knowledge of potential fire risk. Based on the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI), formulation of Drought Factor is used just for calculating the drought today based on current weather conditions, and yesterday's drought index. However, to find out the factors of drought a day after, the data

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 02 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Assessment of vegetal cover changes using Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and subtractive (NDVI) time-series, Karbala province, Iraq
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Karbala province regarded one part significant zones in Iraq and considered an economic resource of vegetation such as trees of fruits, sieve and other vegetation. This research aimed to utilize Normalized Difference Vegetation index (NDVI) and Subtracted (NDVI) for investigating the current vegetation cover at last four decay. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is the most extensively used satellite index of vegetation health and density. The primary goals of this research are gather a gathering of studied area (Karbala province) satellite images in sequence time for a similar region, these image captured by Landsat (TM 1985, TM 1995, ETM+ 2005 and Landsat 8 OLI (Operational Land Imager) 2015. Preprocessing such gap filli

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Publication Date
Wed May 03 2017
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Time Series Forecasting by Using Box-Jenkins Models
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    In this paper we introduce a brief review about Box-Jenkins models. The acronym ARIMA stands for “autoregressive integrated moving average”. It is a good method to forecast for stationary and non stationary time series. According to the data which obtained from Baghdad Water Authority, we are modelling two series, the first one about pure water consumption and the second about the number of participants. Then we determine an optimal model by depending on choosing minimum MSE as criterion.

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 30 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
PROMOTE HUMAN RIGHTS IN CONSUMER PROTECTION AGAINST ENVIRONMENTAL, HEALTH, LEGAL, ADMINISTRATIVE AND CORRUPTION: PROMOTE HUMAN RIGHTS IN CONSUMER PROTECTION AGAINST ENVIRONMENTAL, HEALTH, LEGAL, ADMINISTRATIVE AND CORRUPTION
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Consumer protection requires seeking one official entity to accomplish its tasks. The large number of devices control and implementation in it, return to several ministries, and executive bodies lose coordination and cooperation, and unite efforts to eliminate the types of fraud and control the quality of production within the approved standards. This is in addition to the seriousness of the existence of administrative and legal corruption which hinders the role of inspection committees and representatives of official bodies with the relationship and prevents them from carrying out their duties entrusted to them or presenting them with administrative complications to thwart their duties in consumer protection. This is despite the

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 30 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using the Critical Path Method to Find Time of Constriction for Helicopters Airport Project in the Oil Fields
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This research is considered one of the important researches in Maysan Governorate, as it focuses on the construction of helicopter airport project in the oil fields of the Maysan Oil Company, where the oil general companies in Maysan Governorate suffer from the cost of transporting the foreign engineering experts and the governing equipment of sustaining oil industry from Iraq's international airports to oil fields and vice versa. Private international transport companies transport foreign engineering from the oil fields to Iraqi airports and vice versa, and other international security companies take action to provide protection for foreign engineering experts during transportation. Hence, this process is very costly.

 &nbs

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 04 2016
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
Study in the procedural provisions of the action consumption incidents A comparative study Under Iraqi Consumer Protection Act No. 1 of 2010.: Study in the procedural provisions of the action consumption incidents A comparative study Under Iraqi Consumer Protection Act No. 1 of 2010.
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This research Sheds highlights the procedural protections that must be enjoyed by the consumer in the face of the product, which is the protection of no less dangerous than the substantive protection of our obligations and duties delivered by the legislature upon the product of consumer interest, what is the benefit of the right if the access road to him complicated, so know The consumer has a right to the face of the product, but leaves the claim, either to ignorance For access to this right either to the difficulty of connecting to him.
That this research modest attempt we tried through which to focus on the way to the consumer behavior of arrived right, as we tried to highlight the weaknesses and the complexity of the procedure to

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 26 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Time Series Analysis of Baghdad Rainfall Using ARIMA Method
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Monthly rainfall data of Baghdad meteorological station were taken to study the time behavior of these data series. Significant fluctuation,very slight increasing trend and significant seasonality were noticed. Several ARIMA models were tested and the best one were checked for the adequacy. It is found that the SEASONAL ARIMA model of the orders SARIMA(2,1,3)x(0,1,1) is the best model where the residual of this model exhibits white noise property, uncorrelateness and they are normally distributed. According to this model, rainfall forecast for four years was also achieved and showing similar trend and extent of the original data.

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 01 2007
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Wavelet Analysis For Sunspot Time Series
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Abstract

In this research we study the wavelet characteristics for the important time series known as Sunspot, on the aim of verifying the periodogram that other researchers had reached by the spectral transform, and noticing the variation in the period length on one side and the shifting on another.

A continuous wavelet analysis is done for this series and the periodogram in it is marked primarily. for more accuracy, the series is partitioned to its the approximate and the details components to five levels, filtering these components by using fixed threshold on one time and independent threshold on another, finding the noise series which represents the difference between

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Use of Replacement Models On Determine the Optimal Time to Replacement
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Abstract:-

            The approach maintenance and replacement one of techniques of operations research whom cares of the failure experienced by a lot of production lines which consist of a set of machines and equipment, which in turn exposed to the failure or work stoppages over the lifetime, which requires reducing the working time of these machines or equipment below what can or conuct  maintenance process once in a while or a replacement for one part of the machine or replace one of the machines in production lines. In this research is the study of the failure s that occur in some parts of one of the machines for the General Company for Vege

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 31 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
QUALITY OF LOCAL AND IMPORTED DAIRY PRODUCTS FROM IRAQI CONSUMER OPINION: QUALITY OF LOCAL AND IMPORTED DAIRY PRODUCTS FROM IRAQI CONSUMER OPINION
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The study aims to know the preference of the Iraqi consumer of imported dairy products to local, which has increased demand in recent years due to various reasons including commodity dumping policy that Iraq has been suffering since 2003, which has led to decline in the role of local dairy product in our markets and its inability to compete with imported product for different reasons. The research utilized questionnaire as a survey tool of the opinions of a sample of Iraqi 92 consumers in Baghdad/Alrisafa. The questionnaire consisted of twenty questions included the four components of marketing mixture (product quality, price, place, and promotion). Weighted mean and percentage weight used for data analysis. The study showed that the mos

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