Preferred Language
Articles
/
jeasiq-1405
العلاقة بين موقف الحساب الجاري وسعر الصرف (حالة الولايات المتحدة)
...Show More Authors

خضعت العلاقة بين موقف الحساب الجاري, سواء اكان بحالة عجز ام فائض, وسعر الصرف, اكان بحالة انخفاض او ارتفاع, لجدل واسع بين اوساط الاقتصاديين بشأن هذه العلاقة واتجاهاتها.

الا ان الاعتماد المتزايد لبعض الدول على المستثمرين الاجانب لتمويل العجز في حساباتها الجارية قد يصطدم بعدم رغبة هولاء المستثمرون في الاستمرار باقتناء موجودات معينة مقوِِِِِِِِمة بعملات تلك الدول. وتنشأ الطامة الكبرى لاقتصاديات وعملات هذه الدول عندما يقرر المستثمرون التخلي عن هذه الموجودات كلية (بيعها) .

وكان المضاربون على هبوط العملات bears يؤكدون على ان زيادة عجز الحساب الجاري لدولة ما  يفضي بالضرورة الى انخفاض حاد في قيمة تلك العملة. الا ان هؤلاء المضاربين قد ثبت خطا تقديراتهم في عدة مواضع .

فعلى الرغم من تفاقم عجز الحساب الجاري الامريكي في عقد التسعينات الى مستويات قياسية, فقد ارتفعت قيمة الدولار, ولم تنخفض خلال تلك  المدة, كما هو من المفروض ان يحصل.

ان الغرض من هذا البحث هو تحديد علاقة عجز الحساب الجاري بسعر الصرف على المدى المتوسط والطويل. ويبدأ البحث بمناقشة العوامل الاساسية التي اسهمت بتوسيع عجز الحساب الجاري الامريكي مع الاشارة الى تدهوره في الاونة الاخيره الى مستويات قياسية.

ثم يعرج البحث لمناقشة في ما اذا كانت هذه الزيادة في العجز تمثل ظاهرة اختلالية يتحتم تصحيحها  او ان هناك عوامل معينة تجعل الولايات المتحدة تتحمل عجوزات كبيرة بالحساب الجاري بشكل اكبر من المستوى الطبيعي (بشكل مستدام ولسنوات قادمة) .

إن التطورات التكنولوجية في مضمار تكنولوجيا المعلومات قد افضت الى رفع المعدل الذي نما به الاقتصاد الأمريكي بدون استفحال التضخم في عقد التسعينات. كما إن الإنفاق الاستثماري الأمريكي ارتفع في ذات المدة, بسبب الابتكارات المثيرة في تكنولوجيا المعلومات, مما أفضى إلى إحداث فجوة متوسعة باستمرار بين المدخرات والاستثمار الأمريكي لصالح الأخير.

وطالما ان عجز الحساب الجاري يساوي الفجوة بين المدخرات والاستثمار, فأن الفجوة المتزايدة بين الاستثمار والمدخرات المحلية تتضمن وجود عجز متزايد باستمرار في الحساب الجاري.

ثم يحاول البحث التعريج على اهم الطرق المختلفة لمعالجة عجز الحساب الجاري من الناحية النظرية والتطبيقية .

ويختتم البحث بملاحظات استنتاجيه عن علاقة موقف الحساب الجاري وسعر الصرف وأثره عليه عبر عدة قنوات . ويلخص بما توصل إليه البحث بشأن دراسة الحالة (الولايات المتحدة) .

 

 

 

Crossref
View Publication Preview PDF
Quick Preview PDF
Publication Date
Thu Nov 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison of Multistage and Numerical Discretization Methods for Estimating Parameters in Nonlinear Linear Ordinary Differential Equations Models.
...Show More Authors

Many of the dynamic processes in different sciences are described by models of differential equations. These models explain the change in the behavior of the studied process over time by linking the behavior of the process under study with its derivatives. These models often contain constant and time-varying parameters that vary according to the nature of the process under study in this We will estimate the constant and time-varying parameters in a sequential method in several stages. In the first stage, the state variables and their derivatives are estimated in the method of penalized splines(p- splines) . In the second stage we use pseudo lest square to estimate constant parameters, For the third stage, the rem

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref
Publication Date
Sun May 10 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Seroprevalence and some Demographic Factors Associated with Toxoplasma gondii Infection among Male Population in Duhok Province/Iraq
...Show More Authors

The present study aims to investigate the seroprevalence rate of Toxoplasma gondii infection and its relation to some demographic factors among males in Duhok province/Iraq. A total of 424 random blood samples were collected from the male population of different ages (18-60) years and different social-economic classes. Out of 424 samples examined, 108 (25.47%) were seropositive to the anti- T. gondii antibodies; 88 (20.75%) were found seropositive for IgG, while 20 (4.72%) samples were seropositive for IgM. Regarding occupation, the highest percentage for chronic toxoplasmosis was reported in workers followed by policemen and pensioners at rates of 23.96%, 23.6%, and 23.07%, respectively. The age group 18-30 y

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Scopus (10)
Crossref (5)
Scopus Clarivate Crossref
Publication Date
Tue Jan 02 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The effectiveness of a proposed program to solve the problem of mixing Arabic letters similar to the voice of students in the second grade primary
...Show More Authors

The purpose of this research is to demonstrate the effectiveness of a program to address the problem of mixing similar letters in the Arabic language for students in the second grade of primary and to achieve the goal of the research. The researcher followed the experimental method to suit the nature of this research and found that there are statistically significant differences between the tribal and remote tests, The effectiveness of the proposed educational program. At the end of the research, the researcher recommends several recommendations, the most important of which are: 1 - Training students to correct pronunciation of the outlets, especially in the first three stages of primary education (primary) and the use of direct training

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Tue Nov 09 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Integration between Lean Production and sustainable value chain in light of the trend towards a sustainable circular economy
...Show More Authors

In a resource-limited world, there is an urgent need to develop new economic models, from the traditional unsustainable industrial model of product consumption and disposal, to a new model based on the concepts of sustainability in its comprehensive sense, the so-called circular economy, using fewer resources in manufacturing processes and changing practices in product disposal to waste, by removing its use, recycling and manufacturing to start another manufacturing process. In an era of intense competition in domestic and global markets, the importance of the circular economy is highlighted in its ability to strengthen the competitiveness of enterprises in those markets, by reducing the cost and increasing the quality of the pro

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Fri Feb 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison of estimations methods of the entropy function to the random coefficients for two models: the general regression and swamy of the panel data
...Show More Authors

In this study, we focused on the random coefficient estimation of the general regression and Swamy models of panel data. By using this type of data, the data give a better chance of obtaining a better method and better indicators. Entropy's methods have been used to estimate random coefficients for the general regression and Swamy of the panel data which were presented in two ways: the first represents the maximum dual Entropy and the second is general maximum Entropy in which a comparison between them have been done by using simulation to choose the optimal methods.

The results have been compared by using mean squares error and mean absolute percentage error to different cases in term of correlation valu

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref
Publication Date
Tue Dec 11 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Suggested Index for studying violent by Environment and Psychology components among Collegian students at a sample in Baghdad City
...Show More Authors

Objective: To identification environmental and psychological violence's components among collegians’ students of different stages, and gender throughout creating specific questionnaire, and estimating regression of environmental domain effect on psychological domain, as well as measuring powerful of the association contingency between violence's domains in admixed form with respondent characteristics, such that (Demographics, Economics, and Behaviors), and extracting model of estimates impact of studied domains in studying risks, and protective factors among collegians’ students in Baghdad city. Methodolog

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Tue Jan 03 2023
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
Jurisprudence of the narratives Jurisprudence of the narratives of Mother of the Believers “Um Salmah: (may God bless her) agreed upon between Bukhari and Muslm in respect to fasting, Hajj” pilgrimage” and Sharia duration : The life of the mother of the believers, Umm Salamah, the jurisprudence of the narratives of Umm Salamah, agreed upon between Bukhari and Muslim
...Show More Authors

Abstract

This research’s goal is to  restore and to revive the jurisprudence of  Mother of Believers (Um alMuaamineen) “Um Salmah” "may God bless her", and to highlight her outstanding assimilation and understanding of religion and her conscious thought.  The current research is a comparative scientific theoretical study  represented in the comparison of  jurisprudence of “Um Salamah” with Hadiths  of  fasting  and pilgrimage rules as well as the duration  mentioned in jurisprudence  of  for doctrines( 4 schools of thought )to identify these hadiths with the inclusion and discussion of their evidence.

The current research included two topics: the first one is to identify and introduce

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Mon Oct 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison of the statistical methods used to Forecast the size of the Iraqi GDP for the two sectors (public and private) for the period (2025-2016)
...Show More Authors

Gross domestic product (GDP) is an important measure of the size of the economy's production. Economists use this term to determine the extent of decline and growth in the economies of countries. It is also used to determine the order of countries and compare them to each other. The research aims at describing and analyzing the GDP during the period from 1980 to 2015 and for the public and private sectors and then forecasting GDP in subsequent years until 2025. To achieve this goal, two methods were used: linear and nonlinear regression. The second method in the time series analysis of the Box-Jenkins models and the using of statistical package (Minitab17), (GRETLW32)) to extract the results, and then comparing the two methods, T

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref
Publication Date
Sun Feb 10 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Health Belief Model and its Relation to Age and Body Mass Index Considering Colorectal Examinations among Graduate Students
...Show More Authors

Abstract
Objectives: The study aims to: (1) Find out the relationship among participants’ age, body mass index (BMI), and Health Belief Model (HBM) related to colorectal examinations among graduate students. (2) Investigate the differences in Health Belief Model constructs between the groups of age, gender, marital status, and education level among graduate students.
Methodology: A descriptive correlational study design which conducted in the College of Fine Arts – University of Baghdad. A convenience sample of 80 graduate students were included in this study. The data were collected by using a self-reported questionnaire which consisted of two parts (I) socio-demographic characteristics (II) Colorectal Cancer Screening Beliefs

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Sat Jun 30 2018
Journal Name
Journal Inspector General
Some Forms of Fault Committed by Police Officers – A Comparative Study of Civil Liability under American and Iraqi Law
...Show More Authors

Police play an important role in any society. Where they maintain public order by stopping and deterring crime and bringing criminals to justice. In order to achieve these objectives, they have certain means of law (search, arrest, use of force that may be lethal in some cases). However, such means may be misused in a way that harms members of society such as (Exceeding the Scope of a search warrant, violation of privacy of individuals, False Imprisonment, Excessive use of force, Sudden Deaths in custody, Sexual Assault and Harassment, Failure to respond for Domestic violence calls), which raises the civil liability of police officers and their agencies for such damage. Police officers may even abuse their characteristics even outside offic

... Show More
View Publication