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معالجة التضخم في الاقتصاد العراقي
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لا يتسع هنا المجال لأستعراض كامل الخلفيات التاريخية التي انتجت اوضاعنا الاجتماعية والاقتصادية والسياسية المتأزمة الحالية، وجل ما يمكن قوله هو ان الشعب العراقي وخلال ما يربو على ربع قرن لم يحصد سوى عدد من الحروب والعقوبات الدولية فالازمات التي ولدت الرعب والجوع المستمر للشعب حتى يومنا هذا.

لقد كان الاقتصاد الوطني اول واكبر المتضررين من تلك الازمات ومن سياسات الدولة غير العقلانية فكانت النتيجة اعباء ثقيلة لم يتمكن الشعب من حملها فإنعكست بتدهور الحالة المعيشية وفقدان الكثير من الحقوق والفرص فتدني الاقبال على الحياة والحماس في العمل فإنتكاس لكافة المؤشرات الاقتصادية والاجتماعية التي تقاس بها ديناميكية المجتمع.

ويعاني الاقتصاد العراقي حالياً ازمة اقتصادية مركبة ومتعددة الابعاد احد ابعادها او مظاهرها هو التضخم ذو المعدلات المتفجرة اما ابعاد الازمة الاخرى فهي كثيرة منها تعطل الكثير من الطاقات الانتاجية ومنها البطالة ومنها انعدام او أنخفاض معدل النمو الاقتصادي وينتج عن كل ذلك تدهور مستويات الدخل الحقيقي وانخفاض مستوى معيشة واستهلاك الفرد. ولم تظهر هشاشة او ضعف البناء الاقتصادي بشكل واضح الا بعد فرض نظام العقوبات الاقتصادية الدولية حيث كانت النتيجة الأبرز تتمثل في ظهور ركود اقتصادي عميق مصحوباً بمعدلات قياسية من التضخم سببها الأساس تدهور جهاز الانتاج والعرض وارتفاع المستوى العام للأسعار حتى مع تدني حجم الطلب الكلي.

ان الصدمات التي تعرض لها القطاع النفطي طيلة العقدين الاخيرين من القرن الماضي مضافاً اليه ضعف مساهمة القطاعات الانتاجية أدخل الاقتصاد العراقي في دورة ركود حادة وطويلة وبالتالي جعل معدلات النمو للمتغيرات الاقتصادية الكلية تتجه نحو السالب.

وفي ظل تراجعات اقتصادية كهذه فإن أية سياسة نقدية او مالية توسعية سوف تؤدي الى ارتفاع معدلات التضخم بشكل لا يمكن السيطرة عليه.

وتحت ظروف كهذه فإن أي تعرض لدور الدولة الاقتصادي بدءً من امتلاكها لقطاع اقتصادي عام استراتيجي وانتهاءً بتخطيطها المباشر وأشرافها غير المباشر على مجمل النشاط الاقتصادي سيمنع اجراء التحولات الهيكلية الضرورية في الاقتصاد العراقي، ان التلقائية او العفوية او الحرية الاقتصادية التي يتغنى بها أنصار الرأسمالية المتطرفين تصلح فقط لمستوى متقدم من التطور الرأسمالي وهي لا تصلح للأقتصاديات التي تمر بمراحل التحول من التخلف الى التنمية.

ان هذا البحث ينطلق من فرضية مفادها ان التضخم النقدي الحالي في العراق وهذا المستوى العام المرتفع للأسعار يأتي كنتيجة لتدهور وتعطل قوى الانتاج العراقية فهبوط في كمية السلع المعروضة يقابله أنفاق حكومي متزايد وغير منتج، وبالتالي فما لم تبدأ عجلة الانتاج الوطني بالدوران الفوري والسريع فإن أي من مظاهر او مؤشرات الازمة الاقتصادية الحالية ومنها التضخم لن يمكن علاجها حيث يبقى الحل في تغيير استراتيجي جوهري في مجمل المنهجيات والمنطلقات الاقتصادية والاجتماعية والسياسية.

 

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