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Comparison of the statistical methods used to Forecast the size of the Iraqi GDP for the two sectors (public and private) for the period (2025-2016)
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Gross domestic product (GDP) is an important measure of the size of the economy's production. Economists use this term to determine the extent of decline and growth in the economies of countries. It is also used to determine the order of countries and compare them to each other. The research aims at describing and analyzing the GDP during the period from 1980 to 2015 and for the public and private sectors and then forecasting GDP in subsequent years until 2025. To achieve this goal, two methods were used: linear and nonlinear regression. The second method in the time series analysis of the Box-Jenkins models and the using of statistical package (Minitab17), (GRETLW32)) to extract the results, and then comparing the two methods, The ARIMA model was superior to the first model of the (Quadratic Trend) model. The best model for forecasting the GDP of the public sector was ARIMA (0,2,1). Prediction values ​​were decreasing over time, A model to predict the GDP value of The private sector is the ARIMA (1,2,1) and the forecast values ​​were in the case of a rise in general and the size of the Iraqi GDP (general and private) at current prices will rise in the future. The study recommended interesting statistics and those planning circles, of the time series analysis in the study of the GDP in order to develop it and the application of time-series in a more comprehensive GDP sector to get more accurate results of studies.

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Publication Date
Thu Aug 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Some Estimation methods for the two models SPSEM and SPSAR for spatially dependent data
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ABSTRUCT

In This Paper, some semi- parametric spatial models were estimated, these models are, the semi – parametric spatial error model (SPSEM), which suffer from the problem of spatial errors dependence, and the semi – parametric spatial auto regressive model (SPSAR). Where the method of maximum likelihood was used in estimating the parameter of spatial error          ( λ ) in the model (SPSEM), estimated  the parameter of spatial dependence ( ρ ) in the model ( SPSAR ), and using the non-parametric method in estimating the smoothing function m(x) for these two models, these non-parametric methods are; the local linear estimator (LLE) which require finding the smoo

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Publication Date
Fri Feb 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison of classical method and optimization methods for estimating parameters in nonlinear ordinary differential equation
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  This study is concerned with the estimation of constant  and time-varying parameters in non-linear ordinary differential equations, which do not have analytical solutions. The estimation is done in a multi-stage method where constant and time-varying parameters are estimated in a straight sequential way from several stages. In the first stage, the model of the differential equations is converted to a regression model that includes the state variables with their derivatives and then the estimation of the state variables and their derivatives in a penalized splines method and compensating the estimations in the regression model. In the second stage, the pseudo- least squares method was used to es

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 23 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Risk of non-compliance and its impact on the profitability of Islamic banks: (Applied res earch in the Islamic Cooperation Bank)For the years (2016-2012)
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This research deals with the risks of non-compliance and its impact on the profitability of Islamic banks. Research variables were measured and analyzed as the risk of non-compliance as an independent variableand profitability as a dependent variable. The profitability was measured by three indicators ((rate of return on assets, rate of return on equity and rate of return on Total deposits)) The results of the research showed a significant relationship between the risk of non-compliance and the rate of return on assets and rate of return on total deposits, while there was no relationship between the risk of non-compliance and rate of return on ownership. The research recommended that the senior management of the Islamic Investment Bank s

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 20 2022
Journal Name
Biomedical And Pharmacology Journal
Phytochemical Comparison Study for Evaluating the Hypolipidemic Effect Between Two Iraqi Pepper Spp in the Rats Model.
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Hypercholesterolemia is a predominant risk factor for atherosclerosis and cardiovascular disease (CVD). The World Health Organization (WHO), ) recommended reducing the intake of cholesterol and saturated fats. On the other hand, limited evidence is available on the benefits of vegetables in the diet to reduce these risk factors, so this research was conducted to compare the hypolipidemic effect between the extracts of two different types of Iraqi peppers, the fruit of the genus Capsicum traditionally known as red pepper extract (RPE), and Piper nigrum as black pepper extract (BPE), respectively, in different parameters and histology of the liver of the experimental animals. The red pepper was extracted by ethyl acetate, while the black pepp

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 20 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using Multivariate GARCH Models CCC (Constant Conditional Correlation) and DCC(Dynamic Conditional Correlation) To Forecast Iraqi Dinar Exchange Rate in Dollar
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Abstract

Multivariate GARCH Models take several forms , the most important DCC dynamic conditional correlation, and CCC constant conditional correlation , The Purpose of this research is the Comparison for both Models.Using three  financial time series which is a series of daily Iraqi dinar exchange rate indollar, Global daily Oil price in dollar and Global daily gold price in dollarfor the period from 01/01/2014 till 01/01/2016, Where it has been transferred to the three time series returns to get the Stationarity, some tests were conducted including Ljung-Box , JarqueBera  , Multivariate ARCH to Returns Series and Residuals Series for both models In Comparison

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 01 2015
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
Attitudes of the Iraqi Public towards the Propaganda Logic of Terrorist Organizations
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                     The research entitled "the attitudes of Iraqi People towards the Logic Propaganda for Terrorist Organization such as Daash Regulation, as-Qaida, and Jabhat al-Nasra". It is a field study on the professors and the students of the College of Mass Media at Baghdad University in 2014.

                      After the global war on terrorism declared on September 11, 2011, the researcher finds it is important to study such subject as it threats the unity and sovereignty of Iraq especially after th

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Monetary Policy Management of the Money Supply to Interest rates in Iraqi Economy for the period 2004-2011
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The results show the inability to apply the Taylor rule within inflation and GDP Gaps because the monetary behave is elated from the Iraqi economy.

When applying the Taylor rule to exchange rate with the inflation and the output gap, the results do not match the nominal price announced by the central thing, which proves the lack of commitment by the Central Bank by using the Taylor rule, whether short-run interest rate or exchange rate (Nominal Anchor),  so it did not stay to the Iraqi Central Bank only using the principle of Taylor with the expected inflation rate below the level of output (Macro activity) for the separation of monetary behavior from the real one o

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 30 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Proposed model for the work of audit committees in the public sector and its interaction with the Federal Board of Supreme Audit to reduce the incidents of fraud
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This growing interest of the international scientific specialized commissions is due to the role that the audit committee can play, as one of companies’ governance tools, to increase the accuracy and transparency of the financial information disclosed by the companies, through its oversight role on the process of preparing financial reports, its supervision on the internal audit function within the companies, and supporting its independency, as well as coordinating the efforts between the internal control unites and the external auditor represented by the (Board of Supreme Audit) to clear the observations and irregularities in order to reduce the fraud cases.

This research was built on an applied sample of audit committee works

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison study of Information Criteria to determine the order of Autoregressive models
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بهذا البحث نقارن معاييرالمعلومات التقليدية (AIC , SIC, HQ , FPE ) مع معيارمعلومات الانحراف المحور (MDIC) المستعملة لتحديد رتبة انموذج الانحدارالذاتي (AR) للعملية التي تولد البيانات,باستعمال المحاكاة وذلك بتوليد بيانات من عدة نماذج للأنحدارالذاتي,عندما خضوع حد الخطأ للتوزيع الطبيعي بقيم مختلفة لمعلماته

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 31 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Determining the sources of growth of the cement industry in Iraq (analytical study for the period 1990-2014)
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The objective of this study is to determine the sources of growth of the cement industry in Iraq for the period 1990-2014 and to indicate the nature of the technological progress used in it. To achieve this objective we have built an econometric model, by adapting the production function constant elasticity for substitution, using multiple regression, and enforcement, SPSS program, and using the ordinary least squares method (OLS). The results showed that quantitative factors (labour and capital) are the main sources of growth the cement industry in Iraq, and the qualitative factors (technological progress) did not contribute effectively to achieve this growth. And that the production techniques adopted in the cement industry in

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