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Using Artificial Neural Network Models For Forecasting & Comparison

The Artificial Neural Network methodology is a very important & new subjects that build's the models for Analyzing, Data Evaluation, Forecasting & Controlling without depending on an old model or classic statistic method that describe the behavior of statistic phenomenon, the methodology works by simulating the data to reach a robust optimum model that represent the statistic phenomenon & we can use the model in any time & states, we used the Box-Jenkins (ARMAX) approach for comparing, in this paper depends on the received power to build a robust model for forecasting, analyzing & controlling in the sod power, the received power come from the generation state company & to be considered as Exogenous variables to two methodologies, the sales activity in the General Company of Baghdad Electricity Distribution divides it's work to three stages:

  • Account the Sold Power.
  • Account the Value of the Sold Power.
  • Account the Cash Received.

 

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 17 2022
Journal Name
Applied Sciences
A Hybrid Artificial Intelligence Model for Detecting Keratoconus

Machine learning models have recently provided great promise in diagnosis of several ophthalmic disorders, including keratoconus (KCN). Keratoconus, a noninflammatory ectatic corneal disorder characterized by progressive cornea thinning, is challenging to detect as signs may be subtle. Several machine learning models have been proposed to detect KCN, however most of the models are supervised and thus require large well-annotated data. This paper proposes a new unsupervised model to detect KCN, based on adapted flower pollination algorithm (FPA) and the k-means algorithm. We will evaluate the proposed models using corneal data collected from 5430 eyes at different stages of KCN severity (1520 healthy, 331 KCN1, 1319 KCN2, 1699 KCN3 a

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Improving the Network Lifetime in Wireless Sensor Network for Internet of Thing Applications

Mobile Wireless sensor networks have acquired a great interest recently due to their capability to provide good solutions and low-priced in multiple fields. Internet of Things (IoT) connects different technologies such as sensing, communication, networking, and cloud computing. It can be used in monitoring, health care and smart cities. The most suitable infrastructure for IoT application is wireless sensor networks. One of the main defiance of WSNs is the power limitation of the sensor node. Clustering model is an actual way to eliminate the inspired power during the transmission of the sensed data to a central point called a Base Station (BS). In this paper, efficient clustering protocols are offered to prolong network lifetime. A kern

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 04 2011
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Modifying Hebbian Network for Text Cipher

The objective of this work is to design and implement a cryptography system that enables the sender to send message through any channel (even if this channel is insecure) and the receiver to decrypt the received message without allowing any intruder to break the system and extracting the secret information. This work modernize the feedforward neural network, so the secret message will be encrypted by unsupervised neural network method to get the cipher text that can be decrypted using the same network to get the original text. The security of any cipher system depends on the security of the related keys (that are used by the encryption and the decryption processes) and their corresponding lengths. In this work, the key is the final weights

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering Science And Technology (jestec)
Water Quality Assessment And Total Dissolved Solids Prediction For Tigris River In Baghdad City Using Mathematical Models

Total dissolved solids are at the top of the parameters list of water quality that requires investigations for planning and management, especially for irrigation and drinking purposes. If the quality of water is sufficiently predictable, then appropriate management is possible. In the current study, Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models were used as indicators of water quality and for the prediction of Total Dissolved Solids (TDS) along the Tigris River, in Baghdad city. To build these models five water parameters were selected from the intakes of four water treatment plants on the Tigris River, for the period between 2013 and 2017. The selected water parameters were Total Dissolved Solids (TDS

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison Semiparametric Bayesian Method with Classical Method for Estimating Systems Reliability using Simulation Procedure

               In this research, the semiparametric Bayesian method is compared with the classical  method to  estimate reliability function of three  systems :  k-out of-n system, series system, and parallel system. Each system consists of three components, the first one represents the composite parametric in which failure times distributed as exponential, whereas the second and the third components are nonparametric ones in which reliability estimations depend on Kernel method using two methods to estimate bandwidth parameter h method and Kaplan-Meier method. To indicate a better method for system reliability function estimation, it has be

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 03 2013
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
A Comparison of the Methods for Estimation of Reliability Function for Burr-XII Distribution by Using Simulation.

This deals with estimation of Reliability function and one shape parameter (?) of two- parameters Burr – XII , when ?(shape parameter is known) (?=0.5,1,1.5) and also the initial values of (?=1), while different sample shze n= 10, 20, 30, 50) bare used. The results depend on empirical study through simulation experiments are applied to compare the four methods of estimation, as well as computing the reliability function . The results of Mean square error indicates that Jacknif estimator is better than other three estimators , for all sample size and parameter values

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Publication Date
Thu Sep 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison of BASE methods with other methods for estimating the measurement parameter for WEBB distribution using simulations

  Weibull distribution is considered as one of the most widely  distribution applied in real life, Its similar to normal distribution in the way of applications, it's also considered as one of the distributions that can applied in many fields such as industrial engineering to represent replaced and manufacturing time ,weather forecasting, and other scientific uses in reliability studies and survival function in medical and communication engineering fields.

   In this paper, The scale parameter has been estimated for weibull distribution using Bayesian method based on Jeffery prior information as a first method , then enhanced by improving Jeffery prior information and then used as a se

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 01 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Distributed Heuristic Algorithm for Migration and Replication of Self-organized Services in Future Networks

Nowadays, the mobile communication networks have become a consistent part of our everyday life by transforming huge amount of data through communicating devices, that leads to new challenges. According to the Cisco Networking Index, more than 29.3 billion networked devices will be connected to the network during the year 2023. It is obvious that the existing infrastructures in current networks will not be able to support all the generated data due to the bandwidth limits, processing and transmission overhead. To cope with these issues, future mobile communication networks must achieve high requirements to reduce the amount of transferred data, decrease latency and computation costs. One of the essential challenging tasks in this subject

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 30 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Machine Learning Approach for New COVID-19 Cases Using Recurrent Neural Networks and Long-Short Term Memory

     This research aims to predict new COVID-19 cases in Bandung, Indonesia. The system implemented two types of deep learning methods to predict this. They were the recurrent neural networks (RNN) and long-short-term memory (LSTM) algorithms. The data used in this study were the numbers of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Bandung from March 2020 to December 2020. Pre-processing of the data was carried out, namely data splitting and scaling, to get optimal results. During model training, the hyperparameter tuning stage was carried out on the sequence length and the number of layers. The results showed that RNN gave a better performance. The test used the RMSE, MAE, and R2 evaluation methods, with the best numbers being  0.66975075, 0.470

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Robust Queues Models and its Role in Improving Performance in the City of Medicine / Baghdad Teaching Hospital / Clinic Internal Medicine Advisory

The purpose of this research is to a treatment the impact of Views outliers to the estimators of a distributed arrival and service to the theory of queues and estimate the distribution parameters depending on the robust estimators, and when he was outliers greatest impact in the process of estimating the both distributions mentioned parameters, it was necessary to use way to test that does these data contain abnormal values ​​or not? it was used the method ( Tukey ) for this purpose and is of the most popular ways to discover the outliers , it shows that there are views abnormal (outliers ) in the estimators of each of the distributional arrival and service, which have a significant impact on the calculation of these estimato

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