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The global financial crisis and the role of war and its characterization as solutions "The objective roots and the legal possibility of the crisis in economic thought"
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في البداية اود الاشارة الى ان فهم حقيقة الازمة هو ذو جانب فني يتعلق بالجينات الوراثية لنظام يملك في احيناته قدرة عالية على تفريخ المشتقات. هذا النظام الذي يزداد عقما وتدميرا يزداد قدرة على خلق النقود الائتمانية/المشتقات، وكلما اقتربنا اكثر من فهم هذا الجانب كلما اسقطت في ايدينا تلك التوصيفات الاكاديمية الجاهزة في نقص الرقابة والاشراف، تركيز المخاطر،....الخ التي تناولتها الكتابات الشائعة في معظم طروحات اساتذة الاقتصاد والمحاسبة والمهتمين من الماليين والمصرفيين.

ان الخلط الذي يقع فيه الكثير، هو عدم التمييز بين اصدار الاسهم والسندات وبين مرحلة التحول نحو ما يسمى التسنيد التي وفر شرطها الضروري، ليس عجز ميزان المدفوعات الامريكي، فحسب، وهو مايرفضه العديد من النقوديين الذين يعزوه الى حركة الاصول الاوروبية في جزء مهم منها، وانما فك ارتباط الدولار بالذهب، والخروج عن قاعدة الذهب في 15/اب/1971 التي تضمنها خطاب الرئيس نيكسون ذي العشر نقاط، اهمها الغاء قابلية تحويل الدولار الى ذهب، طرد الذهب من المعاملات الدولية، تصفية موجودات الصندوق والبنك الدوليين من الذهب، وفرض ضريبة على الواردات الامريكية بنسبة 10%. المهم في الامر ان هذا الاجراء الصادر من اكبر دولة في العالم، والذي وفر الشرط الضروري لتحرير الدولار، وكذلك حال العملات الاخرى من اي غطاء، وبالتالي توفرت عملية اصدار النقود كأمكانية دون محددات (عدا ماتعارف عليه الفكر التقليدي من مخاوف ومحاذير)، ان تلك الامكانية ظلت كامنة حتى اوجد مناخها الملائم دهاء كيسنجر عندما قام بترتيبات رفع اسعار النفط تحت ضجيج التاميم في عدد من بلدان العالم، ودورها في رفع اسعار النفط من 6 دولارات للبرميل الى 36 دولار، التي كانت تهدف لتدوير الدولارات الجاثمة على صدر اوروبا لصالحUSA ، والتي ارتضت بها اوروبا مندهشة، وهي تستمع الى كيسنجر في اجتماعه مع وزير الخارجية الفرنسي انذاك وهو يقول، في معرض رده على سؤال الوزير الفرنسي ماانتم فاعلون..؟ (ان زمن النفط الرخيص انتهى. وانتهى معه مشروع مارشال)!!
"محمد حسنين هيكل.1985.ص427".

بأختصار يمكن تلخيص الية (ميكانزم) ما حصل بالاتي:-

  1. ان فك ارتباط الدولار بالذهب وفر امكانية الاصدار النقدي دون ان يحدها محددا كالذهب.
  2. ان رفع اسعار النفط ترافق بتوفر امكانية مواجهة ارتفاع اسعاره من قبل الدول الاوروبية
    (من خلال الفقرة 3 ادناه).
  3. تدوير الدولار الاوروبي الذي اتخذ شكل تحويلات دولارية كمدفوعات مقابل النفط المستورد الى اوروبا، من جهة، ووفر امكانات واسعة لحركة الاقراض الدولية،، وبالذات للبلدان غير النفطية التي تضررت من رفع اسعار النفط، من جهة اخرى (فهي التي أوجدت دائنين جدد، ودائنين غير مؤهلين، ودائنين موضع ثقة مهتزة. اصبحوا بين عشية وضحاها اصلاً للثقة، كالبرازيل، بيرو، اليونان، هنكاريا، شركة طيران زائير) "سيدني جيمس.1973. ص 224"
  4. تحول الدولار الاوروبي الى مايسمى بالدولار النفطي. بغض النظر عن الاثار الاقتصادية الحقيقية وارتفاع واردات البلدان النفطية وغرق البلدان غير النفطية بالمديونية....الخ.


بغض النظر عن كل ذلك دعنا  نبقى في اطار الاقتصاد النقدي. فماذا حصل؟

  1. زادت امكانية اصدار العملات وعلى رأسها الدولار الامريكي.
  2. زادت الودائع الاصلية ونمت بفعل ارتفاع اسعار النفط وبفعل تدوير الدولار الاوروبي.
  3. زادت امكانات البنوك على خلق نقود الائتمان، بطريقة لاتقل سرعة عن حجم الاصدارات النقدية، وهنا يثار سؤال مفاده، كيف تقوم البنوك بخلق نقود الائتمان /المشتقات/ التفرعات، وما هي حدودها؟ بل وماهي القاعدة التي تحكمها؟ بالتعرف على تلك الحقائق في جوانبها الفنية نستطيع ان نفهم اسباب هذه الزيادة الهائلة في المشتقات التي بلغت 60 ضعف الناتج الاجمالي العالمي حسب اخر التقديرات، واذا علمنا ان الناتج الاجمالي العالمي لا يزيد على 27 ترليون دولار فهذا يعني ان حجم المشتقات يبلغ 1620 ترليون دولار، بل، ان بعض المؤسسات المالية تتعامل بما يزيد على مائة الى ثلثمائة ضعف رأسمالها الحقيقي.

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 30 2022
Journal Name
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The Use of the Regression Tree and the Support Vector Machine in the Classification of the Iraqi Stock Exchange for the Period 2019-2020
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 The financial markets are one of the sectors whose data is characterized by continuous movement in most of the times and it is constantly changing, so it is difficult to predict its trends , and this leads to the need of methods , means and techniques for making decisions, and that pushes investors and analysts in the financial markets to use various and different methods in order to reach at predicting the movement of the direction of the financial markets. In order to reach the goal of making decisions in different investments, where the algorithm of the support vector machine and the CART regression tree algorithm are used to classify the stock data in order to determine

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Mon Oct 01 2018
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The Role of Market Iraq Securities in activation Industrial sector Special
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The financial market plays an important role in influencing the economic sectors, including the private industrial sector, through the provision of capital and transfer from savers to investors for the purpose of establishing or expanding projects. Therefore, the financial market is one of the important tools in stimulating the economy in general and the industrial sector in particular, Through the inclusion of industrial companies in the financial market and the introduction of industrial shares to the public, and then provide the necessary funding to stimulate the private industrial sector, Iraq is one of the oil-dependent countries on the oil sector mainly, which lacks industrial production, which is from Are the sectors that

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Tue Nov 09 2021
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Artificial intelligence in accounting education and its role in achieving sustainable development goals in the Kingdom of Bahrain/University of Applied Sciences as a model
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The research aims to show the relationship between artificial intelligence in accounting education and its role in achieving sustainable development goals in the Kingdom of Bahrain. The research dealt with the role of artificial intelligence applications in accounting education at the University of Applied Sciences as a model for Bahraini universities to achieve sustainable development goals. The application of artificial intelligence in accounting education achieves seven of the seventeen sustainable development goals. It also concludes that there is an artificial intelligence infrastructure in the Kingdom of Bahrain, as it occupies a leading regional position in digital transformation, as Bahrain ranks first in the Arab world i

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Wed Jan 29 2020
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Marketing mix and its role in promoting the status of insurance companies in the customers mind: Exploratory comparative research between the Iraq public insurance company and the private insurance company
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The ability of insurance companies to achieve goals depends on their ability to meet customers' requirements, and this requires them to identify target markets and respond to needs and wishes of the markets, the skill is to convince the company to operate what is in the interest of the customer if he is convinced the customer service provided to him, he would repeat to deal with, and where the cost of maintaining existing customers is less than the cost of attracting new customers, the insurance companies that is working hard to maintain their customers, the more customer satisfaction with the services provided has increased loyalty and weakened the ability of competitors lured.

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Wed Nov 01 2017
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Authority control and its role in uniting old arabic authors entries at the Central Library of the University of Baghdad and the Al-Mustansiriya: A Comparative Study
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Tue May 07 2019
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the role of the economy in protecting the environment from pollution and decision_making
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The economic dimensions of environmental issues are complex and unclear in many cases, there is a kind of confusion in the real relationship between economic growth and environmental regulations. Many of the negative environmental impacts are accompanied by human activities and urban and industrial development in the city, and that many of the projects that did not take into account the environmental factors during the planning and implementation of them can be detrimental, as well as natural environments, archeological sites, historical or scientific value, aesthetic or educational. It also describes the Global Environment Outlook that if current trends continue, population growth, economic growth and consumption patterns, the p

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Thu May 14 2020
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Visual Pollution and its Impact on the Aesthetics: The Town of Eizariya as a Model
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This study seeks to shed light on the aspects of visual pollution and its impact on the aesthetics of the town of Al-Eizariya known to suffer from the phenomenon. In order to identify the real causes of the problem which develops in various forms and patterns, threatening not only the aesthetic appearance of the towns, but also causes the emergence of new problems and phenomena that will have negative repercussions on the population. The researcher uses the analytical descriptive method to analyze the phenomenon of visual pollution in terms of reality, development, manifestations and spread and uses photos which document the visual pollution and its impact on the aesthetics of the known. The study concluded the existence of a strong rela

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Fri Oct 28 2022
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The political and economic repercussions of the Chinese Marshall Plan on the Arab world
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China is moving towards building the largest economic power in the world, so what does this mean economically and politically for Europe, America, the Middle East and the Arab world? This project is called the expansionist Chinese Marshall Plan which is a revival of the old Silk Road in a new way. It represents the aspirations of the Chinese people and their president, Xi Jinping, to build a transport route from Asia to Europe and a railway plan to transport goods. The purpose of this is to develop the economic growth model, expand into new markets, promote the Chinese currency, and expand economic and political influence in the areas covered by the Chinese initiative. Equal opportunities in distributing investments to these countries, a

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Thu Dec 15 2022
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The dramatic act and its transformations in the Iraqi theatrical show "Black Astronomy play as a sample"
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The subject of the act and its transformations in the presentation is of great importance at the level of study, analysis and interpretation, and through that the researcher adopted the following title (The Dramatic Act and Its Transformations in the Iraqi Theatrical Show). The play of Black Astronomy was chosen as a sample for analysis, and the aim of the research came in order to achieve a special knowledge of the extent of the transformation that occurred between the dramatic structure of the act and theatrical embodiment and its multiple elements of operation in the Iraqi theatrical shows. It was limited to the show of the Iraqi theater in the year (2020) and included the theoretical framework that accommodated three sections. As for

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Sat Sep 01 2018
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The research aims to identify the most important difficulties facing the scientific research in the technical university in the financial, organizational and administrative according to the quality standards according to the paragraphs studied in the questionnaire questionnaire prepared for this purpose, including the research community on the Central Technical University, which includes several technical colleges and technical institutes were selected A sample of the researchers in the Institute of Technical Management where the number of training was 78 teachers took a random sample of researchers amounted to 40% of the questionnaire, and after the collection and classification of data were used statistical means, including the mean ar

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